Surf's Special Situation Journal

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

You have a point. You know, back in 1999, I was hired to teach TA to a fundamentalist fund manager and his traders. Then I was allocated capital to trade on behalf of the fund. I was down 3% at one point, while the anchor investor pulled his money due to an outside reason. I then launched my own operation but found it was smarter and made more sense to allocate the money to other folks who were smarter, more experienced and had better infrastructure than I did. Not to mention, it fit my personality better to be a deal connector middleman than to directly trade for a living, although I still love trading as a hobby. As you grow, you find that no real hedge fund investor is going to allocate to someone with no infrastrcuture regardless of returns. EEking out a living by trading small OPM or your own account is only one way to make a livign in the market.
surf

Yes I agree, but I believe most private traders do it because they like freedom in many senses, the top one being the freedom of committing your own and not someone else's decisions, so do I at a current point. And prefer to only accept clients who I know will always understand everything I do and will not be a menace.

I hear you about being relatively small and having the need for infrastructure at some point. Probably one should grow to that point first though and maybe if there still is a wish to continue, building the infrastructure is the logical step forward.

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

My initial reaction is that the success is despite of TA, in other words, money management played a huge role, rather than due to TA providing better than 50/50 odds on any one entry or series of entrys. surf

Odds may be lower than 50/50, I don't see it as a critical point of trading. What is critical is that entries provide odds of continuation enough to make trading overall profitable.

You can see that I have around 50% profitable trades, but overall average profit factor is still around 1.70 which is quite above the "random luck" for a sample size of 50+ trades I believe.

And must say that such a public performance is a new experience for me hence it was associated with some extra stress (trying to "perform") et cetera, which certainly played it's (negative) role.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I don't use charts, but I pulled one up just for the TA crew-- if price breaks 609 for a full 5 minutes, shorts are triggered-- this is the PD channel system----- clearly its not TA past price isnt used in anyway-- PD picks the stock based on potential volatility, and the channel simply attempt to nail the correct direction when it happens----




Surf, the only way you could know potential volatility is have a baseline metric for volatility. To do this you must use PAST PRICES to determine a value from which to establish potential volatility.

You are still using data of some kind. Even if it is in spreadsheet form. Is that so hard to grasp?

 

[cornix]

Quote from RCG Trader:



Surf, the only way you could know potential volatility is have a baseline metric for volatility. To do this you must use PAST PRICES to determine a value from which to establish potential volatility.

You are still using data of some kind. Even if it is in spreadsheet form. Is that so hard to grasp?

I asked Surf if he uses HV or IV to construct his channels. He never replied.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cornixforex:

Odds may be lower than 50/50, I don't see it as a critical point of trading. What is critical is that entries provide odds of continuation enough to make trading overall profitable.

You can see that I have around 50% profitable trades, but overall average profit factor is still around 1.70 which is quite above the "random luck" for a sample size of 50+ trades I believe.

And must say that such a public performance is a new experience for me hence it was associated with some extra stress (trying to "perform") et cetera, which certainly played it's (negative) role.

Van Tharp demonstrated that random entries combined with an oscillating instrument like CL and good money management will also result in profits. Clearly, if you just take more profits than losses as the instrument is oscillating you will profit--- TA has nothing to do with it.

 

[marketsurfer]

Hanging on to the AAPL shorts fingers crossed for selling, but not looking too good right now. surf

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Van Tharp demonstrated that random entries combined with an oscillating instrument like CL and good money management will also result in profits. Clearly, if you just take more profits than losses as the instrument is oscillating you will profit--- TA has nothing to do with it.

Probably but my win rate is around 50% only lately. And of course I tested random entries with same MM principles applied. Not even closely the same outcome. And logically if it was so, it would be a cash machine for literally anyone, because MM is very simple, but somehow we don't see crowds of traders trading with random entries and being consistently profitable.

 

[Xspurt]

Here is a map that I did a few hours back for the Eur and so far it's been pretty good. This is all based on TA outputs. I do something similar "by hand" so to speak because that way I have a better feel for the market. The only reason I am posting is to say TA can most definitely be forward projecting. On my old thread Simplicity in TA I did forward projections every week for quite some time but explaining the basic action on multiple time frames. Although I thought it was simple stuff it was over the heads of all but about a dozen traders who understood MTF concepts.

Anyway, I thought I'd bring this out of the closet and dust it off just to show that TA can project future movements in a variety of ways. I still prefer to have the personal feel of the grabbing the market by the throat.

 

[marketsurfer]

The next selling wave in AAPL is right around the corner-- Price Drivers are very bearish looking right now. surf

PS-- remember we need a full 5 minutes above 113,13 to pull the plug on this one,,,,,

 

[marketsurfer]

Apple short turns positive on session-------

The Dark Lord says, niiiiiice