Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from NoDoji:

I think the punchline is you so confidently state your arbitrary entry rule like it's worth something while leaving as "homework" the things that matter more to a trade.

The entry could not be less arbitrary and you did realize this later in your post:

Okay, I have your very specific entry rule,


...but what are the other parameters that go into the spreadsheet? Oh right, that's the "homework" you assigned. LOL

I leave the homework to the individual because you are absolutely correct, it involves the things that matter more to a trade. I have no idea what minimum profit you desire on a trade, what reward/risk ratio you prefer, or whether you move stops to break even after a certain favorable price excursion.

My friend trades a very similar ORB play and he uses a R:R ratio of 4:1. My ratio is closer to 2:1. He also places a wider stop than I do. He doesn't move his stop to break even until price hits a level that's significantly more than where I've already taken my profit. The setup, very similar at entry, yet very different in management, has produced net profitably for both of us for a long time.

I'll give you a hint to get you started down the profitable path:

Document the maximum favorable excursion (MFE) and maximum adverse excursion (MAE) of price for this particular ORB play over a period of at least 30 days and use that data to create a trade management plan for the times when an entry is triggered.

This is the sort of work every trader should be doing before implementing a new strategy. You say you don't care for backtesting, but how do you determine whether a particular strategy can, over time, produce a profit or not?

You left out in the homework assignment knowing when to reverse when your entry rule gets a follower on the wrong side of the market, but the omission doesn't detract from the humor.

I do indeed have a rule for when to stop-and-reverse as opposed to simply stopping out for a loss and waiting for a new setup. My rule is that if one of my plan-based setups appears signaling a trade in the opposite direction of the trade I'm currently in, I will SAR at the trigger price for the new setup. It doesn't happen all that often.

Your little entry rule is as useful as a coin flip, my dear. That is a good joke, but what's funniest of all is that there are people here like cornyforex who think you gave away something "excellent."

Every individual trade is a coin flip.

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. - Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone

Fortunately, in the markets there are certain coins that land heads up more often than not.

Cornix is a consistently profitable trader who has given away far more "excellence" here than any trader needs to earn a living trading.

I once ignored the advice and the methods of consistently profitable traders and it cost me dearly. I eventually did the work (literally 10,000 hours of it now) and discovered that everything they told me was extremely valuable.

Since I have you pegged as a smart cookie, I am somewhat surprised you cannot see that an instruction can be both specific and yet arbitrary at the same. Your entry instructions are very specific and clear to understand. The arbitrariness I was referring to is in their result. I compared the usefulness of your entry rule to a coin flip. If I instructed you to flip a coin at the beginning of bar 2 and go long on head and short on tail, that would be very specific and clear to understand and just as arbitrary in terms of entering on the right side of the market.

I was expecting something along the line of, what entry rule isn't arbitrary and could I provide an example? And my answer would be, not with anything limited to the first two 5m price bars that start the day. At least, not if entering on the right side of the market is the objective.

If the objective is to just get into the market, then of course a rule such as yours is perfect. I can make up a perfect rule too with a little tweak: For a long trade, 5m bar 1 has close LOWER than open; enter if bar 2 breaks bar 1 high. For short, bar 1 has close HIGHER than open; enter if bar 2 breaks bar 1 low.

My rule is intended to catch traders on the wrong side who think the close relative to the open in the first 5 minute bar means something. Now if you just go and do your homework and choose your preferred method of trade management - placing a protective stop, setting a minimum profit target, and deciding whether or not to move your stop to breakeven at any point, oh and knowing when to reverse when you're on the wrong side, and be sure to make a trading plan first, and also get a spreadsheet and backtest, and put in 10,000 hours, and listen to people who hold themselves out as "consistently profitable traders," and read Al Brooks, and definitely read Mark Douglas's Trading in the Zone, have to read that - and soon enough you too will be laughing all the way to the bank.

Good luck!
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

What does this mean, "A very profitable afternoon"?

He meant insightful/fruitful/useful/educating. Forgive him, he is not a journalist...
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Thank you, nodoji

CornixForex-- we just spent a very profitable afternoon with Dr. Brett Steenbarger, PTJ's trading psychologist-----among several others-- I believe you and he are in the same business. It was quite interesting. I debated mentioning the "crow" from Siberia, and decided against it --- Are you familiar with his work? surf

Yes, please fill us in....

As I recall, Dr. S is in the "retail trading is impossible unless you're already rich" camp.

But people online say they can make thousands of dollars a week trading futures from home in a 25k account.

Dr. S says no one makes a living trading a 25k futures account. Or a 50k account either. But some people here and elsewhere say yes you can. I wonder.... has Dr S changed his opinions?
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Thank you, nodoji

CornixForex-- we just spent a very profitable afternoon with Dr. Brett Steenbarger, PTJ's trading psychologist-----among several others-- I believe you and he are in the same business. It was quite interesting. I debated mentioning the "crow" from Siberia, and decided against it --- Are you familiar with his work? surf

Very interesting, Surf. I am aware of his work of course, but not as closely as I would like unfortunately. Somehow stumbled upon Mark Douglas mentioned by NoD above and found his works to be very pragmatic and useful. Denise Shull is great too, no further as last weekend I was reading her article about the role of red color in trading.

What books by Dr. Steenbarger would you recommend to read among first?

P. S. Somehow financial psychology never was my business in the sense of specific counselling, though it would sure be interesting occupation to be busy with some day. My 11 years of counselling practice are mostly related to personal issues so far, of course I helped friends every now and then with their trading related emotional issues, but that never really become a business. Yet. :)
 
Quote from icarus618:



My rule is intended to catch traders on the wrong side who think the close relative to the open in the first 5 minute bar means something. Now if you just go and do your homework and choose your preferred method of trade management - placing a protective stop, setting a minimum profit target, and deciding whether or not to move your stop to breakeven at any point, oh and knowing when to reverse when you're on the wrong side, and be sure to make a trading plan first, and also get a spreadsheet and backtest, and put in 10,000 hours, and listen to people who hold themselves out as "consistently profitable traders," and read Al Brooks, and definitely read Mark Douglas's Trading in the Zone, have to read that - and soon enough you too will be laughing all the way to the bank.

Good luck!

And you of course would like someone spoon feed you 100% mechanical "holy grail" setup with exact entry/management/exit criteria given for every particular market so that you immediately start making big money trading it without putting in any efforts? Oh people, people... :)
 
Is anyone going to try NoDoji 5-min bar breakout idea?

I'll try it now. Let's see how it goes.... :cool:

Friday: long trade. MFE = .40, MAE = 2.72

Thu: short trade. MFE = .16, MAE = 1.71

Wed: no trade.

Tue: long trade. MFE = .12, MAE = .88

Mon: short trade. MFE = 1.77 (finally a good one with no heat)

Fri: long trade. MFE = .23, MAE = 1.20

Hmmm... seems most days there's more money going in the opposite direction of the breakout. I don't know what to make of that.

This is confusing....

I bet Brett Steenbarger would be pretty surprised to know you can make money trading by doing breakouts of the first 5-min bar.

If I can figure out how to do it I'll be sure to let him know. Or maybe Surfer will figure it out before me.........

3891720_f260.jpg
 
How are you supposed to figure MFE anyway?

MFE in the next 3 bars? Next 10 bars?

MFE by the end of the session?

MFE reached before price touches other side of opening bar?

MFE before price returns to entry point?

MFE reached before XXX amount adverse movement?

etc.

Lots of choices....

:confused:
 
Yella, based on how you calculated MFE/MAE, you will not be trading this play with a wide target that holds through retraces, will you? See how well doing your homework works to keep you out of trouble?

I'm a scalper with a minimum profit target of .20. On a 5-min chart I calculate MFE as the number of ticks price moves in a given direction before retracing and breaking in the opposite direction through the high/low of a previous price bar. My stop is never greater than .12 on a breakout play.

Hope that helps :)
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Yella, based on how you calculated MFE/MAE, you will not be trading this play with a wide target that holds through retraces, will you? See how well doing your homework works to keep you out of trouble?

I'm a scalper with a minimum profit target of .20. On a 5-min chart I calculate MFE as the number of ticks price moves in a given direction before retracing and breaking in the opposite direction through the high/low of a previous price bar. My stop is never greater than .12 on a breakout play.

Hope that helps :)

Historical chart, spreadsheet and some patience answers most of such questions, but that's usually too high price for a holy grail by ET standards. :D
 
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