Surf's Special Situation Journal

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Holy F! closing out the long YM trade at 13465 with loss. surf another signal 100% reversed-- got the fat move but not in the direction predicted. what we saw is happening RIGHT NOW, but dang it, wrong way.....

Gonna step away for awhile and re evaluate. thanks for following along. surf

Quote from marketsurfer:

What is your chart telling you about Monday? You TA folks speak in riddles that can easily be interpreted after the fact to mean anything. Please be specific. My Price Drivers are signaling bullish for Monday.

I maintain, once TA shows it, its too late or of negligible value in MOST cases. Enough so to negate the value of such an approach. Clearly, it can be shown in a very small number of circumstances to have value-- such as the daily candle in JCP-- but its not repeatable enough to be of interest.

surf


It is telling you the welcome mat has been replaced by the trap door. It's not talking about Monday, it's talking about now - take profits and reverse short. You hold that short until you get a buy signal and that might be on Monday. It might be in a week or a month as this has the potential to roll through a lot of time frames.

This is a dangerous position to be long imo because of the roll over potential. In any event bank profits, sell short and wait for the buy signal.

Xspurt


Ok, we have doubled down into the Dec YM long at 13497 signals are strong for a bullish monday and next week thus far. enjoy! Surf



Great! I do like the sound of doubling - we got double elephants

Xspurt

From the above it was clear that TA would have made a double profit by closing surf's long to bank profits and reversing short to add to profits from the fall.

However surf's price drivers not only overstayed their welcome, they were extra bullish in a TA short set up and doubled up for a double loss instead of a double profit.

Even reversing surf's price driver signals won't help much because of the lack of control.

(For Oilfxpro, freak and the gang of trolls, Monday comes after Friday as every call I make is hindsight to you)

 

[Xspurt]

TA works. It not only calls the reversals and trends but it gives the trader control. Is it perfect? Of course not. But it is a powerful way to understand what the market wants to do as I've shown on JCP and the Dow and both were in the opposite direction to surf's calls.

TA is all about Price Drivers: real ones

Here's a before and after...

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Holy F! closing out the long YM trade at 13465 with loss. surf another signal 100% reversed-- got the fat move but not in the direction predicted. what we saw is happening RIGHT NOW, but dang it, wrong way.....

Maybe you got those "intimacies" mixed up eh. You thought so and so was on top but turns out they were really on their knees or some such.

Quote from marketsurfer:
09-25-12 12:33 PM
Yeah, on the surface you are correct-- but knowing the intimacies of who is doing what provides an edge in many cases. Remember back when "following the axe" on level 2 was a viable strategy? This is the similar, just with more data points and variations. surf

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Holy F! closing out the long YM trade at 13465 with loss. surf another signal 100% reversed-- got the fat move but not in the direction predicted. what we saw is happening RIGHT NOW, but dang it, wrong way.....

Gonna step away for awhile and re evaluate. thanks for following along. surf

Brother Surf, you entered a long position in the middle of a normal with-trend pullback. A pullback in a trend tends to continue pulling back until price reaches a key support level. In a nicely defined uptrend, "support" is generally considered to be somewhere in the vicinity of a lower trend line, a previous resistance level, or a 20-period EMA. If you look at a daily chart of SPY for example, you'll see that price spent the past few days pulling back to a) the 20-day EMA, and b) previous resistance from 9/7 thru 9/11, which is where price has ended the day.

If you enter a with-trend position while a pullback is mid-way thru its likely journey, you risk taking a lot of heat on the trade, and in a trend that's been running for three pushes or more (like this one has), you risk getting trapped in a deeper pullback (there's still a lower trend line well below today's low in the SPY 140.50 zone), or possibly even a trend reversal.

This is how technical analysis helps those of us who use it. It helps us time our entries so we have less to lose should price reach a level where the odds become unfavorable to us.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from Maverick74:
09-23-12 09:41 PM
Surf, be careful here. Oil looks really vulnerable here. And the indices are probably going to retrace a little bit this week. Keep your stops tight.

Maybe you should be making the calls around here.

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Another good point. Perhaps I'll reassess my belief here. So basically you are saying rising prices attract investors who in turn make the price rise additionally? I can't argue with that-- a game of musical chairs would be another analogy? The market is designed to suck in the maximum income prior to taking it from the max possible investors-- so the public are trend followers by default----makes sense-- no argument here. thanks!

Not always, but basic long-term business cycles of boom/bust as well as many micro-cycles in certain individual stocks and commodities are of this nature almost certainly (gold comes to mind first among recent examples). While the speculator's job is try to predict crowd behavior and the current cycle stage to exploit it.

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Another good point. Perhaps I'll reassess my belief here. So basically you are saying rising prices attract investors who in turn make the price rise additionally? I can't argue with that-- a game of musical chairs would be another analogy? The market is designed to suck in the maximum income prior to taking it from the max possible investors-- so the public are trend followers by default----makes sense-- no argument here. thanks!

Kinds of correct surf. Glad to see you are beginning to understand that trends exist. The public "think" they are trend followers but the greatest action tends to happen when the public pile in and the smart money reverses at a top and the opposite at a bottom.

The strong hands are often in a position to create market hype about the offer so the public buy as they sell. That "good news" can often be seen as sleight of hand by reading the PA with the volume.

It takes some time to learn to read Wyckoff type set ups but it is well worthwhile. Your Price Drivers will be vulnerable to the legerdemain that is an essential part of the market and will skew your price driver numbers as we are seeing.

TA takes this good or bad news into account and offers a systematic way to identify the true intent. For example, when you shorted AAPL before the biggest retail success in history you were against the flow of money. After that the public were vulnerable to a drop when the maximum money had been sucked in.

I said if you had gone long on your short and reversed short where you closed out you would have been closer to the perfect trade. You got the noise and timing all wrong. TA is about real price drivers and distinguishing the true from false. It is not always clear, but we can cherry pick the maximum clarity trades.

On JCP and the YM you ignored the flow of money because you were confident in your price drivers and that TA couldn't call the future. Supply and demand is the irresistible force that drives price in all walks of life and trading is no different, but the trick is to fool the maximum amount of people at the highest point of optimism or pessimism. This is why when you get so optimistic you double up you are most vulnerable without TA to help see beneath the hype.

Unfortunately you never learned real TA so your ability to evaluate it seems predicated on failed Gann astrology. That is not the place to build a systematic approach to TA and it could be a real asset to evaluating your numbers, not with hindsight, but with foresight.

 

[Willleung]

Quote from NoDoji:

Brother Surf, you entered a long position in the middle of a normal with-trend pullback. A pullback in a trend tends to continue pulling back until price reaches a key support level. In a nicely defined uptrend, "support" is generally considered to be somewhere in the vicinity of a lower trend line, a previous resistance level, or a 20-period EMA. If you look at a daily chart of SPY for example, you'll see that price spent the past few days pulling back to a) the 20-day EMA, and b) previous resistance from 9/7 thru 9/11, which is where price has ended the day.

If you enter a with-trend position while a pullback is mid-way thru its likely journey, you risk taking a lot of heat on the trade, and in a trend that's been running for three pushes or more (like this one has), you risk getting trapped in a deeper pullback (there's still a lower trend line well below today's low in the SPY 140.50 zone), or possibly even a trend reversal.

This is how technical analysis helps those of us who use it. It helps us time our entries so we have less to lose should price reach a level where the odds become unfavorable to us.

What are you doing here, Doji?

 

[Brass]

I note that surf has not yet announced the exit of his CL trade. Good thing he's only using play dollars.

 

[marketsurfer]

I hope everyone here joins us on the surf and maverick combine thread-- starting soon! surf