Surf's Special Situation Journal

[Brass]

Quote from marketsurfer:

The exact same timing is required to catch the turns as is to ride a continuation of a move. Why would you think it would be different?

surf

According to some, one target is perhaps easier than the other. By definition, a price turns meaningfully only once during a given move, but it continues until then. It is the self-perpetuating continuation that is an easier and larger target than the singular turn that ends it. It's easier to hit the side of a barn than the hinge on its door.

I think there is a place to call turns when the price action is right, but those are the points where, because the call is very confined (think door hinge), the protective exit should be correspondingly tight. You seem to disagree. It tends to cost you.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Brass:

According to some, one target is perhaps easier than the other. By definition, a price turns meaningfully only once during a given move, but it continues until then. It is the self-perpetuating continuation that is an easier and larger target than the singular turn that ends it. It's easier to hit the side of the barn than the hinge on its door.

I think there is a place to call turns when the price action is right, but those are the points where, because the call is very confined (think door hinge), the protective exit should be correspondingly tight. You seem to disagree. It tends to cost you.

It only continues in hindsight. This is another classic example of "misthink" by the TA crew. surf

 

[Lucrum]

"COT, money flows and insider activity"

Isn't there a significant lag in the reporting of these particular components of your "driver"? Not unlike the lag in traditional "indicators", if I may be so bold as to use that analogy.

And you poo poo on patterns as not being "predictive". Who is to say that your driver components are any more predictive? And If they are, aren't they in effect showing a "pattern" of sorts themselves?

 

[Brass]

Quote from marketsurfer:

It only continues in hindsight. This is another classic example of "misthink" by the TA crew. surf

It continues by definition, until it doesn't. Whereas you, on the other hand, have called dozens of the last few turns. And in each case where you were wrong, far more often than not, you overstayed. Not unlike your current CL trade, where you could have placed a floor on your position at least at your entry point, let alone taken a partial profit, when you were about a full point ahead. That's not precognition. That's just trade management in an uncertain environment. And so, while you laugh at the notion of buy and hold, you arguably engage in buy and fold. ("Strong hands" but not quite invincible.)

Although you don't tabulate your net results, it appears to cost you on balance.

Uncle Point stop placement is not necessarily a linear thing. Beyond a certain point, I would argue that the farther your loss exit is when you aim for the sky, the more you subject yourself to random outcome over a series of trades.

 

[eurotrasher]

Brass,

the trade calls are a high % indicator.

take the other side.

the thread continues and you post some ROI.

win, win.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Lucrum:

"COT, money flows and insider activity"

Isn't there a significant lag in the reporting of these particular components of your "driver"? Not unlike the lag in traditional "indicators", if I may be so bold as to use that analogy.

And you poo poo on patterns as not being "predictive". Who is to say that your driver components are any more predictive? And If they are, aren't they in effect showing a "pattern" of sorts themselves?

Yeah, on the surface you are correct-- but knowing the intimacies of who is doing what provides an edge in many cases. Remember back when "following the axe" on level 2 was a viable strategy? This is the similar, just with more data points and variations. surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Holy F! closing out the long YM trade at 13465 with loss. surf another signal 100% reversed-- got the fat move but not in the direction predicted. what we saw is happening RIGHT NOW, but dang it, wrong way.....

Gonna step away for awhile and re evaluate. thanks for following along. surf

 

[eurotrasher]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Gonna step away for awhile and re evaluate........

strong hands on the right.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Time to add some TA to the mix...

Quote from marketsurfer:

Holy F! closing out the long YM trade at 13465 with loss. surf another signal 100% reversed-- got the fat move but not in the direction predicted. what we saw is happening RIGHT NOW, but dang it, wrong way.....

Gonna step away for awhile and re evaluate. thanks for following along. surf

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Price is the effect and the effect can't be the cause. Just pointing out another classic disconnect between TA users and reality.

surf

No surf, you don't understand that the cause and effect are what makes TA work. Price moves because of the cause. If there are no buyers price falls until buyers like the price. If there are lots of sellers price falls. Conversely if there are lots of buyers price rises. If there is low supply, a little buying will drive prices up. If there is over supply lots of selling will be absorbed. TA uses the laws of supply and demand that cannot be broken.

JCP rose because the buyers piled in. It continued to rise because the buyers were accumulating a position. The price fell because sellers sold hard. They sold because 300 analysts didn't like the news. The news drove the selling and it didn't matter that TA was 1 minute behind the news because the whole set up was marked days in advance calling you to pay attention at that exact spot using good old TA.

When the selling hit, the Price Driver was in place. Price and volume reflects everything that is going on without any disconnect. Placing a buy or sell and having no idea where to place a stop or how to control the trade is disconnected from reality. That is what happens with your price drivers.