Surf's Special Situation Journal

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John Moody of J E Moody & Company:

I think it's not so much a market environment issue as a trading style issue.

If you have a model that can capture a lot of repeatable events, a systematic approach works very well.

............................

use what worxs for you.

period.

:D
 
Quote from eurotrasher:

John Moody of J E Moody & Company:

I think it's not so much a market environment issue as a trading style issue.

If you have a model that can capture a lot of repeatable events, a systematic approach works very well.

............................

use what worxs for you.

period.

:D
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I don't believe he is talking about price. surf
 
Quote from Xspurt:

That's a really good way to describe TA.

The cause here was a technical price driver and the effect is continuing...
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Price is the effect and the effect can't be the cause. Just pointing out another classic disconnect between TA users and reality.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Price is the effect and the effect can't be the cause. Just pointing out another classic disconnect between TA users and reality.

surf
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Price can be the cause too, think about thousands of investors joining some stock, because it's rising...

But generally you are right, price is effect.... Now let's model the following picture: a boy standing near the river bows down, picks a stone and rises his hand with the stone... This move is obviously an effect, but can we conclude with good probability what he's going to do next? I think we can.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Price is the effect and the effect can't be the cause. Just pointing out another classic disconnect between TA users and reality.

surf
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Since it seeks to explain bubbles and other price imbalances, Soros's theory of reflexivity would suggest that price can be both the cause and the effect. It also suggests that prices remain in imbalance longer than they remain in balance. Perhaps you should take your argument to Mr. Soros.
 
Quote from Brass:

Since it seeks to explain bubbles and other price imbalances, Soros's theory of reflexivity would suggest that price can be both the cause and the effect. It also suggests that prices remain in imbalance longer than they remain in balance. Perhaps you should take your argument to Mr. Soros.
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That is a good point. I'm not one to argue with the dark lord palindrome.
 
Quote from cornixforex:

Price can be the cause too, think about thousands of investors joining some stock, because it's rising...

But generally you are right, price is effect.... Now let's model the following picture: a boy standing near the river bows down, picks a stone and rises his hand with the stone... This move is obviously an effect, but can we conclude with good probability what he's going to do next? I think we can.
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Another good point. Perhaps I'll reassess my belief here. So basically you are saying rising prices attract investors who in turn make the price rise additionally? I can't argue with that-- a game of musical chairs would be another analogy? The market is designed to suck in the maximum income prior to taking it from the max possible investors-- so the public are trend followers by default----makes sense-- no argument here. thanks!
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

...The market is designed to suck in the maximum income prior to taking it from the max possible investors-- so the public are trend followers by default----makes sense-- no argument here. thanks!
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Not only "the public," but guys like Soros as well, although not necessarily always by default. He advised some time ago about gold being in a bubble, but that didn't prevent him from participating in it. A (self-perpetuating) directional price move for whatever reason is still something to be exploited. As imperfect as it may be, and more so for some than others, it's in the timing.
 
Quote from Brass:

Not only "the public," but guys like Soros as well, although not necessarily always by default. He advised some time ago about gold being in a bubble, but that didn't prevent him from participating in it. A directional price move for whatever reason is still something to be exploited. As imperfect as it may be, and more so for some than others, it's in the timing.
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The exact same timing is required to catch the turns as is to ride a continuation of a move. Why would you think it would be different?

surf
 
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