Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from Brass:

I think it's cute that you think you can use a series of weighted price drivers to quantify and preordain the effect on price. Since you have yet to do so, perhaps one day you'll even be able to quantify the net effect of your trades on your account. I'll keep my fingers crossed.
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It's not pre ordaining anything, its cause and effect.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

It's not pre ordaining anything, its cause and effect.
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Splendid. Since you now have science by the tail, do be sure to let us know from time to time the net effect of these remarkable price drivers on your trading account. Being the man of science that you are.
 
Quote from Brass:

Splendid. Since you now have science by the tail, do be sure to let us know from time to time the net effect of these remarkable price drivers on your trading account. Being the man of science that you are.
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Negation will not get you anywhere. check your head.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Negation will not get you anywhere. check your head.

surf
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Please advise which portion of my post was "negation." I only detect "negation" in your unwillingness to respond to simple and reasonable questions and requests, this being a "trading journal" and all. You assert the use of science but do not appear to employ it in the most rudimentary performance measurement of your drivers: their net effect on your trading account. Why is that?

I did not open this door, marketsurfer. You did. You always do.
 
I think his strategy is not to mention his losing trades like CL, and only talk about his winning trades if he has any so far.

Quote from TheMan:

So you are still in this JCP trade?

I am not going to go back and dig through all this crap to see where you got in. If you do not mind i am curious to the following.

1. Entry price

2. Risk % of capital per 1 pt in price movement.

3. Original target for trade.

4. Uncle point. Where you will have to get out, assuming that you are not willing to just blow out on this trade.

5. Or are you willing to blow out on it?

6. I am fairly sure that you have previously said that you do not use stops, correct?
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Quote from marketsurfer:

No, i don't do any charting of the Price Drivers. Yes, obviously, the Price Drivers could not be measured had they not occurred first. However, these things happen PRIOR to price moving from their concerted efforts. TA tries to follow price only, We assert that once price occurs, it's simply too late. TA simply draws a map of what has happened, whereas Price Driver style analysis project and tries to predict how price will be affected. Starting from the obvious misnomer that patterns repeat and the past predicts the future-- Price Driver doesn't use price patterns or past price but rather those items that cause price to move-- this places the method ahead of the curve-- where TA traders follow, PD traders lead. This is the first time PD's have been quantified and weighed into an index like product to create biases based on fact and science rather than pretty charts and other delusions. Following clearly doesn't work, and if it does, its way way sub optimal by its very definition. surf
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"COT, money flows and insider activity"

Isn't there a significant lag in the reporting of these particular components of your "driver"? Not unlike the lag in traditional "indicators", if I may be so bold as to use that analogy.

And you poo poo on patterns as not being "predictive". Who is to say that your driver components are any more predictive? And If they are, aren't they in effect showing a "pattern" of sorts themselves?



(I don't use any of those traditional indicators myself)
 
Quote from bigarrow:

Very good point Lucrum, all those are history and are or should be reflected in the price at the moment.
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For the most part I would think so. At least minimizing their usefulness if not eliminating it all together.

In his defense, some components like money flows and insider activity do(if I'm not mistaken) tend to act on prices over some time. Since these tend to represent investors/swing traders rather than short term "day traders".
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Sure. Unlike traditional analysis that uses pass price data, which we find ridiculous, for the most part, Price Driver looks at and attempts to quantify the factors that actually move price ( prior to it moving) into a cohesive whole. Things like COT, the book, news, economic events, special situations, money flows, insider activity and even rumors are all Price Drivers. These items among others are boiled down into a 1 to 10 scale with 5 being neutral. Above 5, bullish pressure, below 5 bearish pressure. Predictions and or trades are entered with the bias created by the PD analysis. TA on the other hand only deals with past price that has no influence on the future regardless of the rhetoric and anecdotal claims. Hope this explains the idea.
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If you think of it, people almost always base their current actions upon their previous actions, if it wasn't so, experience would mean nothing, but as we all know, experience is one of the top priority tools in natural selection and individual decision making.

So when you look at past prices, not only you can statistically conclude what can happen next, but also what others conclude and how they are likely to react to this information.
 
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