Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from marketsurfer:

...This is how I reached this level in my evolution as a trader.
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Speaking of evolution, how's your ROE YTD? This being a journal, and all.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Interesting observation. However, you are wrong, there were many stops in between. See Gann Channel turning into Surfer Death Channel as one example of the evolution. What's a CBT practitioner? Yes, I had an unusual, in retrospect, introduction to the markets. My first mentor was an astro finance, Gann practioner. He turned his 10k college fund into over a million using Gann and astro-- I traded along side him with a $2k cash credit card cash advance--in the option market---this was back in the late 80's early 1990s-- we were buying sports cars and houses---- we couldn't afford--- truly believing we cracked the market's code and the cashstream was never going to end. Then, my friend started making mistakes. losing money and acting more and more bizarre. It was never the method that was wrong, it was his interpretation of it-- he then vanished-- I haven't seen my high IQ, but fooled by randomness friend since 1994. I have some stories that would blow your mind from this era.....about the characters and weird crap I experienced on the "dark side".

As you can imagine, this initial solid success sent me on the road to learning how markets really work. This is how I reached this level in my evolution as a trader.

surf
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Funny how paths fork. My mentor about 30 yrs back was a Gann man and a millionaire then when that meant something. He's still trading in his 80's and making over 100% pa.

He stuck with a pretty simple Gann method, nothing crazy, no astrology. Based it on time and price and that's where I learned how time controls a move in any time frame and developed my own ideas.

I guess you met the wrong guy. An example of that is Robert Miner of Dynamic Traders. Robert had great ideas about timing that made him man of the year and everyone and his dog was following Dynamic Traders. Then he almost crashed but now he is well on the way up again.

The problem was that Robert's TA had a flaw just like many algos are discovered to have a flaw and needs to be adjusted to new market conditions. Robert's problem was simple and I said he would blow up before he dropped hard. His method was amazingly precise for about 18 months but it was all based on linear time cycles.

I had spent years developing different kinds of non linear cycle ideas because I knew time is not linear - it just appears so. Hurst was the key man here. Eventually the bigger cycle hit in and all Miner's linear time cycles crashed.

Does that prove TA doesn't work? No more than the 1500 algo HF's that crashed proves algo's don't work. It is never the majority of failures that prove something doesn't work: it is the smaller number of successes that prove the failures got it wrong and the idea was correct.

You actually met a multimillionaire TA trader who posts here, but you didn't know who he was, and he didn't feel inclined to say. Janis and I trade with him and he makes so much money from 2 MA's and a stochastic for the past 20+ years that he is a major funder for, well I can't say without betraying a confidence.

TA works - you just been around the wrong guys Surf.
 
Excellently stated.

Quote from Xspurt:


Does that prove TA doesn't work? No more than the 1500 algo HF's that crashed proves algo's don't work. It is never the majority of failures that prove something doesn't work: it is the smaller number of successes that prove the failures got it wrong and the idea was correct.
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Quote from Xspurt:

Funny how paths fork. My mentor about 30 yrs back was a Gann man and a millionaire then when that meant something. He's still trading in his 80's and making over 100% pa.



You actually met a multimillionaire TA trader who posts here, but you didn't know who he was, and he didn't feel inclined to say. Janis and I trade with him and he makes so much money from 2 MA's and a stochastic for the past 20+ years that he is a major funder for, well I can't say without betraying a confidence.

TA works - you just been around the wrong guys Surf.
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Ok, interesting. I am looking forward to meeting these mystery men/women who only seem to exist on the internet and behind many layers of supporters. What I have witnessed and experienced first hand is TA success is due to luck and it simply doesn't make sense. NO ONE I have met first hand knowledge of, up and down the food chain, believes TA is a viable method outside of internet aliases and vendors with vested interest. Sorry, thats just been my experience in and around the market. surf

PS-- remember, i actively seek these things out--
 
Quote from Pekelo:

I will explain it in TA language: For 4 days the market has been going sideways in a narrow range. This is usually consolidation pattern and since we rallied before, we should rally afterwards too....
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Bingo!!! TA is king!! Triggered by the Feds, but based on the built up before the announcement... SPX rallied 10 pts....
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Bingo!!! TA is king!! Triggered by the Feds, but based on the built up before the announcement... SPX rallied 10 pts....
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Please post your calls on your own journal. Following the "surf journal" then Cheer leading TA. as if it was your call, is not welcomed on this thread. Thank you
 
Hey, at least I explained why price should move that certain way, instead of calling it Price driver or what the hell.

But I understand, you have no arguments against successful TA and I will honor your request...
 
SURF ALERT, SURF ALERT

We are closing the YM trade at 13488, booking 155 points of pure profit, as projected with the Price Driver system. Going flat here.

surf

PS-- holding JCP short.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

SURF ALERT, SURF ALERT

We are closing the YM trade at 13488, booking 155 points of pure profit, as projected with the Price Driver system. Going flat here.

surf

PS-- holding JCP short.
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wtg surf, you bagged that one :)
 
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