Surf's Special Situation Journal
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
- Status
It's not a double bottom or double top until AFTER it happens. You can see it setting up to happen, but if it doesn't happen, it doesn't exist. This isn't very hard to understand.
surf
Quote from Pekelo:
I will explain it in TA language: For 4 days the market has been going sideways in a narrow range. This is usually consolidation pattern and since we rallied before, we should rally afterwards too....
Welcome to TA 101!
Yeah, TA is great as a descriptive tool-- I use it this way myself. However, as a trading tool it's no better than random entries.
surf
huh? lets say one bar forms a bottom, price moves up. and then a second bar comes down to the same bottom (either the next bar or one later in the day) and forms again and price starts moving up. then it teeters after moving up a bit and you get long (in this case). if price goes down to the bottom again the pattern fails. if price continues to move up (new highs or to a price tgt of some sort) after teetering then it succeeds.
this is easy to see in real time. think of a capital W. Makes the example easier for some
Man, that's not precise. No wonder TA works for you, you see patterns everywhere. Too bad they don't repeat or have any predictive qualities.
how is that not precise. two bars form holding the same bottom. after the second bottom price moves up and stalls (say halfway on the final leg of the W). you decide to get long. if price then moves higher to new highs or a price tgt then the pattern succeeds. if it goes back down to the bottom again, the pattern fails. very easy to see. both bottoms have been printed on the chart before a trade decision is made. and the outcome can validate whether the pattern worked or not.
think about it for a few mins, trying staring at a W for reference.
Sorry, circular reasoning doesn't work in the markets or with me. You are merely describing what has happened. Where is the edge?
You clearly don't trade and have read too many TA books. You are stating the obvious. The same could be said after any random entry. Hey, look it's a double bottom! You can't define it, you can't measure it and you are afflicted with serious delusion and hindsight bias. Quit now before you lose all your money ( when you save enough to open an account). I have tried-- on ignore.
try this, same type of example. will use simple numbers for you.
price opens at 10, then sells off to 5.
from 5 mkt rallies to 8.
then mkt sells back down to 5 again.
then, from 5 mkt rallies to 8 again (5 is now a double bottom).
market stalls at 8.
you decide to go long at 8.
now if 5 trades again, double bottom failed. if say 10 or 15 or whatever tgt you are using for the trade prints then the pattern succeeds.
no matter what happens, once you are long at 8, the pattern has been printed so one can easily judge whether the trade works or not.
price opens at 10, then sells off to 5.
from 5 mkt rallies to 8.
then mkt sells back down to 5 again.
then, from 5 mkt rallies to 8 again (5 is now a double bottom).
market stalls at 8.
you decide to go long at 8.
now if 5 trades again, double bottom failed. if say 10 or 15 or whatever tgt you are using for the trade prints then the pattern succeeds.
no matter what happens, once you are long at 8, the pattern has been printed so one can easily judge whether the trade works or not.
- Status