Surf's Special Situation Journal

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Brass:

If that is indeed the case, then the implication is that your position is negligible in relation to your account size. Therefore, while a significantly adverse move would be fairly painless for you since, according to you, your position size doesn't require a stop, then it only follows that a significantly favorable move in your chosen direction would not be particularly meaningful either. What, then, is the point, especially for what you regard to be a special situation? Serious question.

Yes, that's a good question. I add to the position in a more substantial way as the drivers prove themselves---but still remaining within the overall plan. The entry "layering" is a key part of the trade. I look at trades as processes, not all or nothing plunges.

 

[gmst]

Surf - Your trading style is different from majority of people on ET. Curious, what % returns have you made in last 3 yrs, 5 yrs? TraderChi said you have blown up multiple times. If your position size has always been well thought-out why did you blow up before? Serious question. Thanks.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from gmst:

Surf - Your trading style is different from majority of people on ET. Curious, what % returns have you made in last 3 yrs, 5 yrs? TraderChi said you have blown up multiple times. If your position size has always been well thought-out why did you blow up before? Serious question. Thanks.

I started out as a hard core TA trader. MTA member etc. My methods have been refined and I have evolved as a trader since those early days. I realized that the past does not equal the future and patterns are ever changing therefore looking at past price creates a delusional edge. TA is descriptive not predictive--therefore useless when it comes to timing entries. I was fortunate to have mentors like V. Niederh@ffer and others who showed me how markets really work. By the way, he taught your namesake M. Tro@t. Yes, I have blown out several times in the past, prior to learning position sizing and the importance of staggered entries. Remember, as traders, we are dealing with an oscillating system that CAN NOT be timed exactly--therefore multiple entries can mitigate the timing issue-- if the macro and micro price drivers are understood--- Price is the past, look for what moves price is an edge. surf

PS-- most of my non professional trades have been documented here on the surf report since 2002--- I don't talk about overall percentage gains over time, but suffice to say, I am over all positive--despite the blowouts.

 

[TRS]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I Yes, I have blown out several times in the past, prior to learning position sizing and the importance of staggered entries.

and stop losses................

 

[gmst]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I started out as a hard core TA trader. MTA member etc. My methods have been refined and I have evolved as a trader since those early days. I realized that the past does not equal the future and patterns are ever changing therefore looking at past price creates a delusional edge. TA is descriptive not predictive--therefore useless when it comes to timing entries. I was fortunate to have mentors like V. Niederh@ffer and others who showed me how markets really work. By the way, he taught your namesake M. Tro@t. Yes, I have blown out several times in the past, prior to learning position sizing and the importance of staggered entries. Remember, as traders, we are dealing with an oscillating system that CAN NOT be timed exactly--therefore multiple entries can mitigate the timing issue-- if the macro and micro price drivers are understood--- Price is the past, look for what moves price is an edge. surf

PS-- most of my non professional trades have been documented here on the surf report since 2002--- I don't talk about overall percentage gains over time, but suffice to say, I am over all positive--despite the blowouts.

Surf - Appreciate your candidness! Thanks for all the info. VN must be proud of MT's performance!

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from TRS:

and stop losses................

No, it's been proven that fixed stops actually degrade a systems performance. The key is position sizing and hedging-- stops are a creation of the market machine that profits fom your trading. surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from gmst:

Surf - Appreciate your candidness! Thanks for all the info. VN must be proud of MT's performance!

Sure, anytime. Yeah, VN is quite pleased with the results of his stable of traders like tro$t, crab@l, Roy N and about another dozen high profile successful money managers.

 

[marketsurfer]

Anyone remember trading with one of these? Wonder if any collector value on these ancient tools?

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from marketsurfer:

No, it's been proven that fixed stops actually degrade a systems performance.

really? where?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Fah Q:

really? where?

Dozens of places, here's an example.

http://epublications.bond.edu.au/cg..."do stops degrade trading system performance"