Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from marketsurfer:

I eliminate all possibilities of a disaster prior to the entry due to position sizing.

JCP will collapse soon, it's just a matter of time.

surf



" The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.........."

a specific date would be helpful so i can load the boat.
 
Quote from eurotrasher:

" The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.........."

a specific date would be helpful so i can load the boat.

Very true. I'm giving it untill 11-1 to start playing out. If the projection isn't confirmed by then , I misread the data. surf:D
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Down about $3 on the JCP short. Things are unfolding slower than forecast but nothing has changed with th macro picture on the company. Continuing to hold. surf



Quote from marketsurfer:

Stepping in here, shorting same size at 27.90 to increase break even level.

Yes, it is a price driver trade but these particular inputs are obviously early.

surf
News Flash: JCP is up 42.5% in premarket trading today...A surprise buyout move by...

Only a remote possibility? Sure, but are you willing to bet your account on it? I've done a lot of shorting over the years, but I've finally given it up. They are some of the most frustrating, aggravating and, for the most part, just not worth it trades I've done.

Trading shorts without stops requires some very deeeep pockets, Surfy. Deeper than you probably got... Good luck.
 
Surf, I just checked, did you know that 31% of the float is short? I have found this to be a very dangerous trade when a stock is breaking out with that much of the float short. Look at the charts of SHLD and WTW to see examples where they can double in price only to collapse later but that double wipes everyone out. Be careful.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Surf, I just checked, did you know that 31% of the float is short? I have found this to be a very dangerous trade when a stock is breaking out with that much of the float short. Look at the charts of SHLD and WTW to see examples where they can double in price only to collapse later but that double wipes everyone out. Be careful.

he doesnt need to look at charts, the price drivers tell him all he needs to know. if the driver say hold, or short more he will. if price goes to $50 but drivers say short, then he will hold or maybe short more. it doesn't matter how far price goes against him, he's taken care of all the possibilities beforehand with his position sizing. whatever happens, happens.
 
Price drivers sounds to me like a red light green light system, but based on fundamentals rather than looking at price “in the rear view mirror.”
 
JCP last earnings release leading to a huge volume spike and the creeper up movement was one of the most obvious bottoms I've seen this year
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Surf, I just checked, did you know that 31% of the float is short? I have found this to be a very dangerous trade when a stock is breaking out with that much of the float short. Look at the charts of SHLD and WTW to see examples where they can double in price only to collapse later but that double wipes everyone out. Be careful.


Yes, thanks. There is a reason for the heavy short loading---something I believe I identified also.... Surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I don't think in this manner. I eliminate all possibilities of a disaster prior to the entry due to position sizing. JCP will collapse soon, it's just a matter of time.

surf
If that is indeed the case, then the implication is that your position is negligible in relation to your account size. Therefore, while a significantly adverse move would be fairly painless for you since, according to you, your position size doesn't require a stop, then it only follows that a significantly favorable move in your chosen direction would not be particularly meaningful either. What, then, is the point, especially for what you regard to be a special situation? Serious question.
 
Quote from Brass:

If that is indeed the case, then the implication is that your position is negligible in relation to your account size. Therefore, while a significantly adverse move would be fairly painless for you since, according to you, your position size doesn't require a stop, then it only follows that a significantly favorable move in your chosen direction would not be particularly meaningful either. What, then, is the point, especially for what you regard to be a special situation? Serious question.

also he adds to his losing positions but does he add to winning positions as well??
 
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