Surf's Special Situation Journal

marketsurfer · Oct 25, 2012

Quote from tobbe:

Interesting. How do you define "trend"?

Trend is subjective and only exists for the observer after the directional trade entry is made. Trend can not be defined objectively nor can it be tested.

<i> trends do not exist </i> ed seykota

Allow me to prove this is a simple manner--

How many moves or series of moves in one direction increase the odds that the next move or series will be in the same direction?

There is no answer to this question.

If you flip a coin 9 times and get heads 9 times, are you in a heads trend?

marketsurfer · Oct 25, 2012

Quote from Xspurt:

This is not meant to belittle surf, for as you know Cornix I have helped and mentored traders from a quant to a floor trading background and I am good at getting inside their heads and fixing trading problems they couldn't understand.

Remember the football Cornix!

You are a shrink, also? :eek:

marketsurfer · Oct 25, 2012

Quote from cornixforex:

I don't trade stocks, but intraday trends are probably the best friends of all traders including stock traders of course.

How can this be, when extensive and exhaustive testing has proven that mean reversal and not continuation occurs? in other words, it can be proven that drops tend to occur after rises, and rises occur after drops rather than continued motion in the same direction.

Trading is hard enough without having a basic understanding of probability, and when the probability is against you, I don't understand how you even survive. Your money management and guessing must be top notch. surf

R. Raskolnikov · Oct 25, 2012

Whoa man, tone down the gonzo hate vibe. I'm not trying to discredit you. You posted info about how you used to get paid "big bucks" for your mkt knowledge. I didn't bring that up, you did. I only took the discussion a bit farther. I apologize if I struck a sensitive nerve. I'll retreat from this discussion.

I know very little about published writing and know next to nothing about marketing, so you are clearly superior. Mind you, I have not read a single thing you've written nor actually know if you are a marketer for funds but I'll take your word because it doesn't matter to me if you are truthful or not.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Everything is relative. For a backwoods hick from the countryside of Pittsburgh to a 7500 sq ft home full of art--- with lots of toys--- to being broke then back up again--- the real life of a trader, publisher and entrepreneur-- not the ET fantasy.

You seem Hell Bent on either proving your superiority or discrediting me-- ex wife's lawyer maybe, or someone who owes me money??

Seriously man, what's the obsession?

surf

cornix · Oct 25, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

How can this be, when extensive and exhaustive testing has proven that mean reversal and not continuation occurs? in other words, it can be proven that drops tend to occur after rises, and rises occur after drops rather than continued motion in the same direction.

Trading is hard enough without having a basic understanding of probability, and when the probability is against you, I don't understand how you even survive. Your money management and guessing must be top notch. surf

Simple. Those tests didn't consider some information and were plain wrong.

No biggie, back in XIX century head of British scientific academy said everything science could it already discovered, period. Can you imagine that? I can.

Academics can combine amazing amount of encyclopedic knowledge and even more amazing rigidness of the mind. Add arrogance of some to the equation and you get really sad picture.

marketsurfer · Oct 25, 2012

Quote from cornixforex:

Simple. Those tests didn't consider some information and were plain wrong.

No biggie, back in XIX century head of British scientific academy said everything science could it already discovered, period. Can you imagine that? I can.

Academics can combine amazing amount of encyclopedic knowledge and even more amazing rigidness of the mind. Add arrogance of some to the equation and you get really sad picture.

A group i belong to have run 1000's of tests looking for evidence of trending behavior over multiple years and have not been able to find it in stocks or stock index futures. WE WANT TO FIND IT-- as it would only enrich us and others with the wherewithal to make a difference beyond your belief--

Why don't you step up to the plate and present your definition of trend in the form of testable hypothesis and i'll be happy to have it tested.

You wouldn't test yourself in the combine, so I don't expect much from this simple request either. sometimes it just feels good to stay deluded. The anecdotal, i did it, claims are getting old.

surf

PS-- is Xspurt part of your siberian psych practice?

marketsurfer · Oct 25, 2012

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Whoa man, tone down the gonzo hate vibe. I'm not trying to discredit you. Y.

Then its a weird obsession to prove your superiority--- I have no clue if you are not some street urchin on the public library computer, nor do i care. You wouldn't prove your chops in the combine, so that tells me something. Otherwise, I have no clue.

surf

PS-- i was being sarcastic with the term big bucks----

cornix · Oct 25, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

A group i belong to have run 1000's of tests looking for evidence of trending behavior over multiple years and have not been able to find it in stocks or stock index futures. WE WANT TO FIND IT-- as it would only enrich us and others with the wherewithal to make a difference beyond your belief--

Why don't you step up to the plate and present your definition of trend in the form of testable hypothesis and i'll be happy to have it tested.

You wouldn't test yourself in the combine, so I don't expect much from this simple request either. sometimes it just feels good to stay deluded. The anecdotal, i did it, claims are getting old.

surf

My definition of trend is not actually "my" but the one of Charles Dow. Series of higher highs or lower lows. Have no idea if it's possible to mechanically test it in order to define the structural edge. Probably it's one of the kinds of the information trained human brain processes easily, but due to complexity of data input it's impossible to transform into the mechanical algorithm. Probably not.

As for the combine et cetera, you answered your own question in your post: YOU want to find something. Did I ever say I am in need for something, especially something to prove?

cornix · Oct 25, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

PS-- is Xspurt part of your siberian psych practice?

No, he's the person way beyond the expertise of any shrink, he's Irish.

If seriously, he's my good friend who helped me quite a lot when I was yet struggling to become consistent several years ago. I witnessed and witness what he does for years and he witnesses what I do, so we have a lot of information about each other hence some "inside" jokes.

marketsurfer · Oct 25, 2012

Quote from cornixforex:

My definition of trend is not actually "my" but the one of Charles Dow. Series of higher highs or lower lows. Have no idea if it's possible to mechanically test it in order to define the structural edge. Probably it's one of the kinds of the information trained human brain processes easily, but due to complexity of data input it's impossible to transform into the mechanical algorithm. Probably not.

As for the combine et cetera, you answered your own question in your post: YOU want to find something. Did I ever say I am in need for something, especially something to prove?

Complexity of the data input? Sounds like a cop out. It;s the market not astrophysics. It only does several things. Are you talking about intuition? subjective chart interpretation? My close friend Dr. Flavia Cymbalista is an expert in this field-- feel free to ask me whatever. http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/satinterview/01312005-42195.cfm

she works with the dark lord Soros--- so i wouldnt' dismiss it as academic ivy tower material.

You obviously believe in Science as a valid method-- why do you shirk from science when it comes to your own market beliefs? There are edges in the market, but the things you folks are talking about are mysticism and belief--- not an edge. surf

I'll continue my questions-- why is TA heavily taught by Forex Dealers who profit when you lose? Why is TA not taught in prop shops as a prime method if at all? Prop shops profit if you profit so they teach real edge, Forex dealers profit when you lose so they teach TA. I can not believe this isn't obvious to you.

surf