surfers $$ journal
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
- Status
i was 5 days early and structured the entries to allow for margin of error. i am not merlin, nor claim to be.
By whatever method- prediction, alchemy, luck or whatever, Surfer got himself out of this monster with a profit... good for you!
Perhaps there is a way of picking tops, and it might be very ballsy, but at what price?
1.Your stop must be 200 points away. Are you expecting to make 400 points on this trade, which then would be a rather mediocre 2R trade (2 times the amount risked)?
2. A system where the risk is equal or greater than the expected profit can only be profitable if there is a very high winning percentage, right- such as 80%?
However, Marketsurfer was making fun of super high win percentages (proflogic)...so I suspect the W/L percentage is perhaps near 60% or so?
3. So, if the system is to be profitable, there better be some High- R-Multiple trades to make up for the losses... but I personally don't understand how can you have them if your stop is so big? 4. and lately, there also seem to have been big losses, such as the dollar trade, which one has to make up... so how do you actually make the money? Beats me, but perhaps it is possible...
just the math does not seem to work.
I guess there are many ways to skin a cat... I could never trade like this...too much pain for an uncertain reward... by the time you break even or eke out a profit, I would be toast (psychologically), no fun at all. I prefer to take the clear no-brain trades once the direction is established, and with a tight stop- they are there quite often, they have a very high win-loss percentage, and the stop is very close. So it is not infrequent to make a 4-7 R trade, which, if you risk 1 or 2% of your account, you make between 4-14 percent on one single trade.
But, like I said, many ways to do it.
Perhaps there is a way of picking tops, and it might be very ballsy, but at what price?
1.Your stop must be 200 points away. Are you expecting to make 400 points on this trade, which then would be a rather mediocre 2R trade (2 times the amount risked)?
2. A system where the risk is equal or greater than the expected profit can only be profitable if there is a very high winning percentage, right- such as 80%?
However, Marketsurfer was making fun of super high win percentages (proflogic)...so I suspect the W/L percentage is perhaps near 60% or so?
3. So, if the system is to be profitable, there better be some High- R-Multiple trades to make up for the losses... but I personally don't understand how can you have them if your stop is so big? 4. and lately, there also seem to have been big losses, such as the dollar trade, which one has to make up... so how do you actually make the money? Beats me, but perhaps it is possible...
just the math does not seem to work.
I guess there are many ways to skin a cat... I could never trade like this...too much pain for an uncertain reward... by the time you break even or eke out a profit, I would be toast (psychologically), no fun at all. I prefer to take the clear no-brain trades once the direction is established, and with a tight stop- they are there quite often, they have a very high win-loss percentage, and the stop is very close. So it is not infrequent to make a 4-7 R trade, which, if you risk 1 or 2% of your account, you make between 4-14 percent on one single trade.
But, like I said, many ways to do it.
SURF ALERT:
entering shorts in eur/usd pair @ 1.2962----- internally held stops @ 1.3007.
our market structure model is indicating top is likely in, hence trade trigger.
this is a one entry trade, no scaling in. will give stop level 3 minutes prior to exit.
best,
surf
entering shorts in eur/usd pair @ 1.2962----- internally held stops @ 1.3007.
our market structure model is indicating top is likely in, hence trade trigger.
this is a one entry trade, no scaling in. will give stop level 3 minutes prior to exit.
best,
surf
Surf, I hope you are right. I respectfully disagree, but I am interested to see how it works out. Look at AUDUSD, short entry around .7763-.7680
are we actually agreeing on this one??
:eek:
surf
Quote from marketsurfer:
are we actually agreeing on this one??
:eek:
surf
Too soon to tell as usual.
It will go up until the top confirms and we have no confirmation the top has set in.
Your confirmation is different than mine.
Mine is based in price, yours is based on "The Loving Feeling", chills, the quant squirm or a Gann Fan, who knows.
- Status