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Great call so far, Surf.

Curious if you were going to discuss what changes you made to the system after the high of the year trade was a bust and you said that the credibility of the entire PD system was devalued.

"This is devastating as it devalues long term research and effort, not to mention the capital loss."

Can you provide some specific color?

Quote from marketsurfer:

We caught a very solid up wave here. Holding longs.

All signs are bullish into December. Do not fear the ever changing cycles of the harvest season. Samhain, surf
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Quote from marketsurfer:

Folks, we have clarity from the Price Drivers. It is bull bull bull across the board. Entered longs at 14793 YM

surf
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Surf - check out the recent posts in my award-winning thread "But what about copper" in the Metals section.
I contend the Chinese themselves are holding up the price.
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Great call so far, Surf.

Curious if you were going to discuss what changes you made to the system after the high of the year trade was a bust and you said that the credibility of the entire PD system was devalued.

"This is devastating as it devalues long term research and effort, not to mention the capital loss."

Can you provide some specific color?
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We are pushing 100 points positive here in the long entry. Signals are clear that there will not be a precipitous decline in the autumn.

I am playing with the weightings of the various Price Drivers for each of the 30 Dow components. Earlier it seems that the heavier weighted factors were actually not as relevant thus throwing off the entire signal. The same goes for lighter weighted factors that should have had greater weight. surf
 
Cool. Well good luck to ya.

Quote from marketsurfer:



I am playing with the weightings of the various Price Drivers for each of the 30 Dow components. Earlier it seems that the heavier weighted factors were actually not as relevant thus throwing off the entire signal. The same goes for lighter weighted factors that should have had greater weight. surf
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Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Cool. Well good luck to ya.
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Thanks, will see We are getting outrageously bullish projections into the end if 2013 b Dow --- 15750 to 16500 by jan 1 2014. surf
 
I have a spreadsheet to individually price the components and price the index. I can stretch it to low 13,000's to your upper targets without believing in unicorns. I agree with your targets but not before a much deeper correction.


Quote from marketsurfer:

Thanks, will see We are getting outrageously bullish projections into the end if 2013 b Dow --- 15750 to 16500 by jan 1 2014. surf
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i guess it is interesting to work personal indicators, apps , etc to predict future market moves...call for corrections, massive bull runs etc.

i for one as a trader say its impossible. furthermore the faster you realize this..the sooner you will be earning actual money. no one can predict future price movement ...no one. i do however believe for short term trading T/A is ok..along with fundamental bias's...short term.

i am certain those of you (surf, strait, among others) do not even remotely believe yourselves with ridiculous predictions if you have any true experience trading markets.

again, my disagreement is with those who speak of long term market "certainties" through nonsense studies. you get it right by chance and you repeat it all over cyberspace....you miss it and say "oh well" at best...as most know here; i prefer to show my abilities through PnL to tell my story.
 
Quote from startraitor:

I have a spreadsheet to individually price the components and price the index. I can stretch it to low 13,000's to your upper targets without believing in unicorns. I agree with your targets but not before a much deeper correction.
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Interesting, thanks for the input. I was expecting a much larger rout than what occured in August--- however, i didn't account enough (( weigh heavily enough) for the massive power of the Fed in the markets. This time it really will be different, and all the selling has already occured. The Fed has tipped its hand-- they WILL NOT disturb the markets again in anyway but positively untill 2014-- therefore its up up and away-- to the moon ALICE!

surf:)
 
Quote from sellindexvol66:

i guess it is interesting to work personal indicators, apps , etc to predict future market moves...call for corrections, massive bull runs etc.

i for one as a trader say its impossible. furthermore the faster you realize this..the sooner you will be earning actual money. no one can predict future price movement ...no one. i do however believe for short term trading T/A is ok..along with fundamental bias's...short term.

i am certain those of you (surf, strait, among others) do not even remotely believe yourselves with ridiculous predictions if you have any true experience trading markets.

again, my disagreement is with those who speak of long term market "certainties" through nonsense studies. you get it right by chance and you repeat it all over cyberspace....you miss it and say "oh well" at best...as most know here; i prefer to show my abilities through PnL to tell my story.
More...

Ok, everyone has different ideas. nothing wrong with this and its actually the very essence of the market.

I am a speculator who trys to surf only the biggest waves--- my goal is to catch the biggest move of all time. Do I know when it will occur? No. Do I know when everything conspires together to make such a move likely. Yes. I am not into tickkissing day trading or following the past by watching the transition of intraday charts--- its easy to see their hypnotic qualities and when combined with hindsight bias--- its a dangerous dangerous combination for anyones financial health. peace, surf


PS-- be thankful for what you got-- my good friend, Frank F, wrote this song in the early 1970;s--- never had to work a real job ever----- made millions---all because of the groove-----

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/d0H71Ps_1jU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
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