Surfer Alerts

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Quote from marketsurfer:

300 points? LMAO--- I am in this for thousands of DJIA points at a minimum--- yeah, I was early, no one can time the market accurately, but I have a name and I have a number to work with, which is what I am doing. Last big drop could have been the BIG ONE, this one may be, no one knows, but we do know that 15542 is the yearly top in the DJIA prior to a substantial decline. How you trade this information kindly and without cost provided to surf alert readers is up to you. surf
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surf, for the point of this conversation; i will work with this is "reality" as far as a trade.

the question i have for you is: from all your contacts in the trading world those who actually are net positive..does even one of them use simply one mathematical formula/model to predict future prices?

i contend not 1 successful trader in the world accurately predicts pricing/bias from 1 model...(such as leaving out real world issues such as central banks, sov crisis, news, etc that "drive" pricing) which ignores a host of other factors.

no one can predict the future..not yet a least. what you have done well is force others to discuss their thought process (in their rebuttals to your ridiculous made up PD) here and there. for that you did do something positive for those who need help.
 
Quote from sellindexvol66:

surf, for the point of this conversation; i will work with this is "reality" as far as a trade.

the question i have for you is: from all your contacts in the trading world those who actually are net positive..does even one of them use simply one mathematical formula/model to predict future prices?

i contend not 1 successful trader in the world accurately predicts pricing/bias from 1 model...(such as leaving out real world issues such as central banks, sov crisis, news, etc that "drive" pricing) which ignores a host of other factors.

no one can predict the future..not yet a least. what you have done well is force others to discuss their thought process (in their rebuttals to your ridiculous made up PD) here and there. for that you did do something positive for those who need help.
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No, the prediction company bought by UBS uses models to predict price--- but I am quite certain that the Price Drivers are original and they take into consideration real world issues, attempting to weigh the various factors that actually move price prior to price moving and then converting these factors into a number extrapolated onto the DJIA. I work with the DJIA due to there just being 30 components---
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

No, the prediction company bought by UBS uses models to predict price--- but I am quite certain that the Price Drivers are original and they take into consideration real world issues, attempting to weigh the various factors that actually move price prior to price moving and then converting these factors into a number extrapolated onto the DJIA. I work with the DJIA due to there just being 30 components---
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if PD does that effectively..good luck then you earned it. i would suggest protecting the model with your life though and not advertise it...
 
Price Drivers is not a model. It's a self churning mechanism in marketsurfers' head.
No model would have you exit a trade and reshort 11 minutes later n
Other than, of course, one that was in your head and devoid of rules
 
Quote from Optional:

Price Drivers is not a model. It's a self churning mechanism in marketsurfers' head.
No model would have you exit a trade and reshort 11 minutes later n
Other than, of course, one that was in your head and devoid of rules
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And let's not forget the "model" had MS exiting upon an up close Monday (8 days ago) yet he remained short for another 250+ points against him.
 
Quote from Optional:

Price Drivers is not a model. It's a self churning mechanism in marketsurfers' head.
No model would have you exit a trade and reshort 11 minutes later n
Other than, of course, one that was in your head and devoid of rules
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That wasn't directly model based. I'm far from a really good market timer but I do know what's going to happen, just not when exactly. The Price Drivers have called the top tic for the year in the DJIA and a substantial multi thousand point decline before the next super bull that will take out the high. How you trade this is up to you--- not all my trades are timely even with an uncannily accurate model. This is the macro picture, we nailed it so far, how you micro manage it is up to you.

Surf
 
Honestly I am engaged in Surf's call, because if he's right, VIX will be much higher, which is very good news for day traders. :D
 
Let's play Jeopardy guys and gals...

Alex: "Something that a person who trades for a living would never say"

Quote from marketsurfer:

I do know what's going to happen, just not when exactly.
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