Surf Report

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YM currently has a 10 week range of 3.54% with a 2 week range of 1.17% and a daily atr of 0.55% . This is pretty well close to the dullest market in 40 years . Given the fact we have recently been 10% above the 200ma id suggest a lot of risk is to the downside medium term . Sufferer just hasnt been great at timing it . i think patience will pay but will Sufferer survive the drawdowns in his demo acc :D
 
PistolPete said:
YM currently has a 10 week range of 3.54% with a 2 week range of 1.17% and a daily atr of 0.55% . This is pretty well close to the dullest market in 40 years . Given the fact we have recently been 10% above the 200ma id suggest a lot of risk is to the downside medium term . Sufferer just hasnt been great at timing it . i think patience will pay but will Sufferer survive the drawdowns in his demo acc :D
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I wouldn't count on it but you never know.....
 
volpri said:
I wouldn't count on it but you never know.....
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well i dont count on anything but i do quantify so i have an idea on probability , obviously there are no absolutes . The index doesnt live 10% above the 200ma for long , last 2 times we were north of this were may 2011 ( 18% decline ) and then may 2013 ( 6.3% decline ) . the previous 2 occureneces were after 2003 lows and 2009 lows and they went a lot higher than 10% > 200ma but as these were significant swing lows need to be taken into context . I beleive the chances of a 5% decline are better than a coin toss chance and thats an edge in my world . Given the low IV not a lot needs to be risked , expectancy is good . Time will tell
 
PistolPete said:
well i dont count on anything but i do quantify so i have an idea on probability , obviously there are no absolutes . The index doesnt live 10% above the 200ma for long , last 2 times we were north of this were may 2011 ( 18% decline ) and then may 2013 ( 6.3% decline ) . the previous 2 occureneces were after 2003 lows and 2009 lows and they went a lot higher than 10% > 200ma but as these were significant swing lows need to be taken into context . I beleive the chances of a 5% decline are better than a coin toss chance and thats an edge in my world . Given the low IV not a lot needs to be risked , expectancy is good . Time will tell
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Yea but did you factor in the "trump" effect?
 
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arbuckletboone said:
Everyone on trade2wIn and twitter has been talking about Dow 22k+ for a while. It's gonna happen.
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They may be talking about it but retail are very short here, 71% hold short Dow positions at IG index. Retail loves to fade strong trends and listen to fake news. oh well.
 
Why do people even short it? It's basically DESIGNED to go up. Shorting seems like trying to pick up pennies on the railway track. Whatever. I'm long. Currently holding Nasdaq100 and Dax longs from about here. Waiting for a nice profit to close
 
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