Surf Report

[propwarrior]

A Macron win is 90% likely, as you mention. Betting on it is like betting on a 1/10 favorite at the track. Yes, you'll win most of the time...

Ha Surf. Nice try at conflating the Macron odds with the markets reaction to the outcome which are of course independent.

 

[JSSPMK]

Ha Surf. Nice try at conflating the Macron odds with the markets reaction to the outcome which are of course independent.

Market reaction is a 50/50 outcome always.

 

[truetype]

Ha Surf. Nice try at conflating the Macron odds with the markets reaction to the outcome which are of course independent.

No. You're saying the most likely scenario, a Macron win, is probably bullish. But everyone knows that. The market discounts the likely scenario, with a dash of the unlikely. It's like an FDA drug trial. "I think the stock will go up if the FDA approves the drug." Yes, of course. But the current stock price is a weighted average of approved/not-approved valuations.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Didn't the trolls say the Dow would rocket to new highs today?
View attachment 173489

You do realize that almost every time you post a chart getting all excited over a Dow -25 day the market reverses... why are you not equally disappointed at the +28 day we have now? Real traders don't start popping the champagne because the market made an inch when you have a mile to go.

 

[speedo]

You do realize that almost every time you post a chart getting all excited over a Dow -25 day the market reverses... why are you not equally disappointed at the +28 day we have now? Real traders don't start popping the champagne because the market made an inch when you have a mile to go.

Real traders also use real money and don't guarantee outcomes.

 

[marketsurfer]

the bookmakers are showing 90% implied probability of a Macron win. It's likely to happen even if he does appear to be a granny lover. The market already showed it's hand on the first round and I believe if Macron wins we will have a relief rally. Many recent shorts may want to close their position or at least lighten up so I am think we could see a rally into today's close.

my 2c.

 

[propwarrior]

No. You're saying the most likely scenario, a Macron win, is probably bullish. But everyone knows that. The market discounts the likely scenario, with a dash of the unlikely. It's like an FDA drug trial. "I think the stock will go up if the FDA approves the drug." Yes, of course. But the current stock price is a weighted average of approved/not-approved valuations.

ok then Surf. IF Macron wins what do you think will happen to the Dow?

 

[JSSPMK]

Weren't markets expected to tank with Trump victory?

 

[vanzandt]

ok then Surf. IF Macron wins what do you think will happen to the Dow?

Futures will be green Sunday night. Sell-off next week.

 

[Michael.jstocks]

It should just keep going up, to be honest. It's what the market does! Pull up a daily chart. If brokers didn't let retail people short the market, there'd be lots more people making good money instead of being wiped put.

We'll see 3k on teh ES soon enough, and that's a promise