Surf Report

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justrading said:
It's assess sunshine, if you had half the intellect I have you'd know that subconsciously.
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You better tell all the technical analysts that TA's function is not to tell when to buy or sell and that it only make sense in static ( single deck analogy) market environments where it can be used to infer buying/ selling--

I am happy to learn you find this obvious. Given the fact thst you are anonymous i have no clue but based on your moronic responses my guess is that you don't understand what is being stated.

Surf
 
volpri said:
Market still has trends..channels..ranges..wedge tops and bottoms..triangles..BO...PB..FLAGS...etc ad nauseum. Same in 2017 as in 1923. All reflect human nature. Humans program the machines...they will reflect human nature but more precise as the emotional element is removed. Markets get more precise in the DAY of the machines. That is why TA traders have a hard time finding discrepancies ...imbalances..and capitalizing on them. You have to read the chart carefully. There is no noise. Every tick is meaningful. Every tick tells a story. In the ES 70% of the activity created by the machines.. HTF's mostly. Then another 25% aprox created by other Institutions ...banks..pension funds...etc ad nauseum. 5% to 10% by retail traders with little money..LOL. THE BATTLE IS BETWEEN the machines. That constantly changes as algos change...but overall pattern is the same. Strong bull trend..tight channel...1 Or 2 bar P.b. Odds favor trend resumption. Doesn't matter that a machine or conglomeration of machines created the pattern. TA has become more precise not the opposite. That requires extreme focus as you will not see the same imbalances. I use to trade stocks just watching the level2 inside bid and inside ask using the quoted volume. When imbalances showed up then one springs quickly. Now that has changed.
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I like your two final sentences.

But need to disagree that TA has become more precise. Patterns will always show up in data. Even random data creates the same paterns as the markets.

Odds favor trend resumption- that is a very broad and untestable/unverifiable claim.

Regardless, good luck to you this week! I enjoyed your jungle stories!

surf
 
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marketsurfer said:
You better tell all the technical analysts that TA's function is not to tell when to buy or sell and that it only make sense in static ( single deck analogy) market environments where it can be used to infer buying/ selling--

I am happy to learn you find this obvious. Given the fact thst you are anonymous i have no clue but based on your moronic responses my guess is that you don't understand what is being stated.

Surf
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The reason why I don't engage in TA discussions with you anymore is you have demonstrated over the years that you have the intellect of a lizard.

You claim experience in trading. All you have proven in every incarnation of the Surf Report is that you know how to lose consistently, so that is your only demonstrated area of expertise.

You epitomise the fact that any fool can have an opinion.
 
We are holding the YM short position into the open. There does not need to be any type of drastic catalyst for the selling to continue. It's the inherent nature of the market to ebb and flow-- rise and fall-- despite to upward drift. Now is the time to fall.

It took us 8 entry attempts to nail the coming solid downwave. The down move will happen, the question is velocity -- we could see the 1000 point plus move ftom the djia highs in 2 days or even 2 months with fluctuations in between. Or it could be fast and violent.

Get prepared.

The future is uncharted.


surf
 
marketsurfer said:
Technical analysis is like card counting in blackjack. It works if there is a constant number of decks from which cards are drawn. If the number of decks in the shoe changes randomly, knowing the number of face cards played in the recent past will not provide information about the number likely to show up in the future. If there is a relatively constant set of participants in the marketplace and their buying and selling activity falls within stable parameters, we can make a reasonable inference as to the probability of forthcoming buying or selling.
The smart trader is not looking for where to buy or sell. The smart trader is looking to see if the current market activity is stable relative to the activity of the recent past. The smart trader watches the dealer and figures out when card counting truly yields a betting edge.

Dr brett s.
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I think the good doctor is a tad pedantic.
marketsurfer said:
Unfortunately, today, the number of decks in the shoe is constantly changing due to the machines making...
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...stepping in front of a freight train that much more dangerous to your financial health.
 
Ummm...Surfster...8 clumsy entry attempts is not nailing anything, except maybe your own coffin shut....

But, anyway, wishing you good luck on this trade. Am also positioned short now and hope to profit too.

You go, Surfy!! :)
 
marketsurfer said:
The down move will happen, the question is velocity -- we could see the 1000 point plus move ftom the djia highs in 2 days or even 2 months with fluctuations in between. Or it could be fast and violent.
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Or it could move less than 1000 points. Or it could follow, or be followed by, an up move...

 
justrading said:
The reason why I don't engage in TA discussions with you anymore is you have demonstrated over the years that you have the intellect of a lizard.

You claim experience in trading. All you have proven in every incarnation of the Surf Report is that you know how to lose consistently, so that is your only demonstrated area of expertise.

You epitomise the fact that any fool can have an opinion.
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Weak
 
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