Surf Report

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Frederick Foresight said:
Not necessarily. It varies. The market is not a perfect and instantaneous discounting mechanism. Sometimes the move gets underway well before the underlying reason becomes news. Other times, the market continues for a time after the "news."
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What you post is YOUR opinion. What you think should happen logically. But your opinion doesn't matter. Prices are always all included.
If the market moves before or after the news, it means that the market is adapting the value to what they think is correct at that moment. Supply and demand that play. The market is always right. Time differences between the news and the moves are caused by participants that change their behavior. And that's where the money is. Behavioral finance.
 
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Frederick Foresight said:
Not necessarily. It varies. The market is not a perfect and instantaneous discounting mechanism. Sometimes the move gets underway well before the underlying reason becomes news. Other times, the market continues for a time after the "news."
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That is exactly why trying to trade on the news is useless. The move can happen before the news gets out. In addition there is AWAYS a bear argument and a bull argument that can be made for almost all news. Sometimes the market will go down on good news and up on bad news. I said news is useless. That was a hyperbol. There is an impact on the market from news. The problem is you can't always tell what the impact will be because of the bull/bear case. And again, the market can move before the news gets public and then the other institutions and retail traders jump on board and guess what? A swift reversal to the opposite and unexpected direction takes place and traders are looking bewildered as to what should have happened. They will hold onto their losing position thinking "it has to come back" and go in my favor because pf the "news". Bottom line, there is an impact from news. But, it is difficult to know what the impact will be beforehand and the move can happen before traders get wind of the news. So, why wait around for it. Or search for it? Whatever impact it has will show up in the price action so just watch the price action. It doesn't matter one iota if it's impact is delayed...just watch the PA as that will tell the story. There is the news and then there is the interpretation of the news by the myriad of traders ..retail and institutions. Even if you know the news before it comes out you can misjudge it's effect on the market and miss out on a good move or even find yourself holding a loss. So why not just focus on the moves and forget the news? That is why i said "news is useless"
 
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volpri said:
That is exactly why trying to trade on the news is useless. The move can happen before the news gets out. In addition there is AWAYS a bear argument and a bull argument that can be made for almost all news. Sometimes the market will go down on good news and up on bad news. I said news is useless. That was a hyperbol. There is an impact on the market from news. The problem is you can't always tell what the impact will be because of the buull/bear case. And again, the market can move before the news gets public and then the other institutions and retail traders jump on board and guess what? A swift reversal to the opposite and unexpected direction takes place and traders are looking bewildered as to what should have happened. They will hold onto their losing position thinking "it has to come back" and go in my favor because pf the "news". Bottom line, there is an impact from news. But, it is difficult to know what the impact will be beforehand and the move can happen before traders get wind of the news. So, why wait around for it. Or search for it? Whatever impact it has will show up in the price action so just watch the price action. It doesn't matter one iota if it's impact is delayed...just watch the PA as that will tell the story. There is the news and then there is the interpretation of the news by the myriad of traders ..retail and institutions. Even if you know the news before it comes out you can misjudge it's effect on the market and miss out on a good move or even find yourself holding a loss. So why not just focus on the moves and forget the news? That is why i said "news is useless"
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I will leave the door open to the idea that there are people who can use fundamentals to their advantage. (I am not among them.) But not at the expense of ignoring what the market is doing. In the end, (price) action speaks louder than words.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
That is my entire point. There are timing differences. Meaning that full discounting is not magically instantaneous.
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You never know when full discounting will happen; you don't even know if it will ever happen. And when it happens you don't know what direction it will full discount.
In short: trade the market at market price instead of what you think should be the price.
 
Mtrader said:
You never know when full discounting will happen; you don't even know if it will ever happen. And when it happens you don't know what direction it will full discount.
In short: trade the market at market price instead of what you think should be the price.
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That is my approach.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
I agree that much of what passes for TA is indeed magical bullshit. But oftentimes by the time you figure out why price moved the way it did, you may be late to the party. You often hear stories of noted fundamentalists who have constructed all manner of elaborate theories of why a market should move a certain way based on their considered and experienced assessment of any number of variables they may be juggling at the time. And then when the market doesn't comply or perhaps does the the exact opposite they immediately turn tail and reverse their position. The "why" is a nice-to-have. The "what" is the need-to-have.
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The only thing that matters is what the market does. The "why" is not important and really cannot be known in most cases. I tried to tell surfy to be careful as he was thinking another 300 to 1000 point drop. I warned him of the wedge bottoms forming. By midnight they was formed. By opening RTH the bastard had rallied over 100 points. Then it heads back down after opening another 100 points or so. He could have exited his short grabbed well over 100 points, rode the rally up 100 then back down 100 and could be whistling dixie as he travels to the beach. Instead he has to take imodium and toilet paper with him. TA in the form of PA could have been very useful. Damn fundamental information .....screw it. THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS IS WHAT PRICE DOES AND THAT IS ALL REVEALED IN THE CHARTS.
 
volpri said:
The only thing that matters is what the market does. The "why" is not important and really cannot be known in most cases. I tried to tell surfy to be careful as he was thinking another 300 to 1000 point drop. I warned him of the wedge bottoms forming. By midnight they was formed. By opening RTH the bastard had rallied over 100 points. Then it heads back down after opening another 100 points or so. He could have exited his short grabbed well over 100 points, rode the rally up 100 then back down 100 and could be whistling dixie as he travels to the beach. Instead he has to take imodium and toilet paper with him. TA in the form of PA could have been very useful. Damn fundamental information .....screw it. THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS IS WHAT PRICE DOES AND THAT IS ALL REVEALED IN THE CHARTS.
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Although I agree that price is paramount, I don't like to speak in absolutes. Just because I don't rely on fundamentals does not mean that someone else can't do a better job of it than I can. But, indeed, price is the final arbiter.

As for TA, while I use the most basic of price action in my own trading, I do agree with those who say that much of what passes for TA is crap. I'm just careful not to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
 
Right now the emini is in this huge range back and forth. It is at support in a smaller range within the larger range. Out of this smaller range it can break out south or it can break out north. So in the end surf may be able to toss the imodium in the ocean but my point is with price action trading he could be eating lobster instead of popcorn shrimp today. Remember most B.O.s' fail and price goes back into the range. Finally one will succeed. But money can be made on the back and forth and also on the B.O. when it does succeeds. Fundamental traders may be using alot of toilet paper keeping the pharmacies in business buying imodium. ROFLMAO. IMAGINE fundamental trader to pharmacy. "Got anything stronger than imodium? Pharmacy "Why do you need sonething stronger?" Fundamental trader "My position is in deep sh$t and dragging me in it." Pharmacy.."ok what you need is some pain medicine and several anti-depressives. Hold tight we gonna fix you right up" Trader..."thanks but what about my position?" Pharmacy "sorry i can't help you with that. I cannot treat the cause only the symptoms"
 
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