Surf Report

[marketsurfer]

Only fools call the market, as any real trader knows.

My thoughts are based on SPX and VIX..so, as mentioned, I would not be a bit surprised, and am not expecting to do too many long trades this week.

Let us see what actually happens.

If you want a %, I will put it at 75%.

False. Everytime you enter a directional trade, you are "calling" or "forecasting" or "predicting: the market. otherwise you would never enter the trade.

The removal from reality is profound with the pure PA/ TA battalion.

surf

 

[southall]

False. Everytime you enter a directional trade, you are "calling" or "forecasting" or "predicting: the market. otherwise you would never enter the trade.

surf

Following the market is not a prediction.

If i follow another driver in my car, i am not predicting where they are going.

Unlike many other signals, a market making a new all time high is an unambiguous indicator of a direction that you can follow. You have no idea where it is going to go, you just follow it long.

Head and shoulders, trend lines etc. These can all be interpreted in many different ways, but a market making a new all time high is an unambiguous signal to follow the market in the long direction.

If your aim is to follow a car and it is clearly heading north, but you turn your car around and decide to head south, then that is just dumb. But it is what you are doing by shorting this market.

At this point in time, the Dow Longs are following, but the Shorts are predicting.

 

[themickey]

I admire your foresight Surf, infront of a roadroller attempting to pick up pennies

 

[marketsurfer]

Following the market is not a prediction.

If i follow another driver in my car, i am not predicting where they are going.

Unlike many other signals, a market making a new all time high is an unambiguous indicator of a direction that you can follow. You have no idea where it is going to go, you just follow it.

We call that "market chasing" in the surf shack.

surf

 

[newwurldmn]

Hind sight is 20/20. Unfortunately, we don't trade the past like the chart readers -- if we did, we would never have a loss.

You have perfected other ways for that.

 

[marketsurfer]

I admire your foresight Surf, infront of a roadroller attempting to pick up pennies

Despite the recent losing trade, the odds remain in our favor for a plunge in the DJIA. Remember, you can have 85% or more odds on your side and the trade still be wrong.

surf

 

[themickey]

But.... everyone who places a trade thinks the odds are in their favor, the overwhelming majority at this point in time think the odds are in their favor going long and they are right.
And in your hypothosesis, you may be right, but will go broke as the market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

 

[marketsurfer]

But.... everyone who places a trade thinks the odds are in their favor, the overwhelming majority at this point in time think the odds are in their favor going long and they are right.
And in your hypothosesis, you may be right, but will go broke as the market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

I don't think, I know-- It could easily have been long, I dont' care, I just do what the system says.

Yes, John Maynard Keynes --the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. surf

 

[themickey]

I don't think, I know-- surf

Hehehe, noobs think and talk this way

 

[Overnight]

Tomorrow shall be very interesting for sure. New POTUS speech is going to have an impact, possibly quite radically. How can it not?