Surf Report

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PistolPete said:
Probability all us traders got .
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That is it; probability. For instance a bull flag has about 67% chance of being successful. Bear flag a 68% chance of being successful. That means the rest of the time they will fail. It is a probability, but not real big, of success ...but good enough to make $, with good management. However, it is just as important to know what to do when they fail as when they succeed. Most traders don't know. Most guru's don't either! ROFL
 
Looks like Surf is toast. Price broke south of earlier range and then held on a PB and continued down for several 100 points before ranging again. Now it has broken out of the second range, but north. If a PB holds above the range Surf can probally kiss his profits goodbye. A good bullish B.O. of a range, AFTER several have failed, and most do (70% to 80%), has about a 78% chance of being successful. The PB will tell the tale. Get ready to jettison your position surf just in case.....


ym 4-5.jpg
 
volpri said:
Looks like Surf is toast. Price broke south of earlier range and then held on a PB and continued down for several 100 points before ranging again. Now it has broken out of the second range, but north. If a PB holds above the range Surf can probally kiss his profits goodbye. A good bullish B.O. of a range, AFTER several have failed, and most do (70% to 80%), has about a 78% chance of being successful. The PB will tell the tale. Get ready to jettison your position surf just in case.....


View attachment 172414
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Again...there is no position, just a mind deal.
 
So let me see:

1. AMD is close to $15 again....
2. YM has just ran up about 450 points against the Dumbo's position.

The Machines won again!!! Hey Surf, if you ever write a sequel, the title should be:

The Raise of the Machines
 
volpri said:
That is it; probability. For instance a bull flag has about 67% chance of being successful. Bear flag a 68% chance of being successful. That means the rest of the time they will fail. It is a probability, but not real big, of success ...but good enough to make $, with good management. However, it is just as important to know what to do when they fail as when they succeed. Most traders don't know. Most guru's don't either! ROFL
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Subjective shit like that hasnt got a real probability attached in my world , if you cant put a binary maths based equation on it is got zero weight in a statistical sense but thats not a discussion im participating in and this is not the place either
 
PistolPete said:
Subjective shit like that hasnt got a real probability attached in my world , if you cant put a binary maths based equation on it is got zero weight in a statistical sense but thats not a discussion im participating in and this is not the place either
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You mean like as if the market somehow magically obeys your math calculations? ROFLMAO. SO FUNNY! Just because math is an exact science doesn't mean in any way, form, or fashion the market obeys it! ROFLMAO. Ask the surf and skippy..oh sh$t roflmao. You have no better probability than I do or than surf.. keep dreaming pistol pete "the gunslinger"
 
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