Surf report for the masses

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Quote from marketsurfer:

TA is descriptive not predictive. It is a great tool to use when describing the market, but objectively has no predictive value.

however, when applied subjectively, certain artists, sorry i mean traders do appear to be able to extract useable information from it in an intuitive manner.
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TA has no predictive value - agreed. Given the huge mass of people applying TA to the markets it is highly unsurprising that some have done well and, becoming so confident in their abilities are described as, or consider themselves to be, artists, magicians or whatever. Its just survivorship bias.

So, if you buy into that line of logic there isn't really any room for artistry. They are mutually exclusive and not two sides of the same coin.


Thx
D
 
Quote from fundjunkie:

TA has no predictive value - agreed. Given the huge mass of people applying TA to the markets it is highly unsurprising that some have done well and, becoming so confident in their abilities are described as, or consider themselves to be, artists, magicians or whatever. Its just survivorship bias.

So, if you buy into that line of logic there isn't really any room for artistry. They are mutually exclusive and not two sides of the same coin.


Thx
D
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yes, unless YOU ARE that person that surviorship bias smiled upon. however, i do believe that there is more to intuitive process than most scientists believe. my friend dr. flavia cymbalista has done work in this regard with soros.

there is no argument against what you state, however you are looking at it as a whole and not individually. there is a difference.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, unless YOU ARE that person that surviorship bias smiled upon. however, i do believe that there is more to intuitive process than most scientists believe. my friend dr. flavia cymbalista has done work in this regard with soros.

there is no argument against what you state, however you are looking at it as a whole and not individually. there is a difference.

surf
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Well, I wouldn't call a survivor a charlatan especially if he's bagged a sack of gold and I'm scraping the barrel;)

And what most if not all of these survivors have in common is that they've hit upon good risk control before getting blown away. It's the risk control that protects both the systematic and discretionary trader. But what counts as good risk control changes over time...so there's a luck factor in there too.


Thx
D
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

lower channel line at 12597 touched but not broken by the 3 minute rule. staying flat for now in YM

edmhw.png
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Shorts triggered when lower channel line broke early today. SHORT YM here.

http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/080522/17308.html?.v=1

surf
 
Quote from fundjunkie:

Well, I wouldn't call a survivor a charlatan especially if he's bagged a sack of gold and I'm scraping the barrel;)

And what most if not all of these survivors have in common is that they've hit upon good risk control before getting blown away. It's the risk control that protects both the systematic and discretionary trader. But what counts as good risk control changes over time...so there's a luck factor in there too.


Thx
D
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yes, i agree. i like your point about the ever changing facets of risk control. very astute!

have a nice weekend,

surf
 
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