Support & Resistance? Why do some work and some not?

[qxr1011]

Depends on what you mean by "same thing".

by the same thing i meant specific instrument within certain range of time frames

i agree that different players may use different degree of "magnification" (scale) looking at the charts

but it is very possible that the same s/r will be seen and used both by day- trader and the swing trader

depends on whom he wants to trade with.

he is trading with nobody: in the flow of orders to which he will tap his order he may buy from and sell to the long term traders even if he himself is a scalper and vice versa

but i agree that depending on what kind of trader one is, he will be looking at different time frames (hence the prisms which i mentioned)

 

[lcranston]

by the same thing i meant specific instrument within certain range of time frames

i agree that different players may use different degree of "magnification" (scale) looking at the charts

but it is very possible that the same s/r will be seen and used both by day- trader and the swing trader

Possible but not likely intentional since the two have different objectives and seek opportunities in different places. Therefore, they will be looking at different levels or points of support and resistance, even if they're each using indicators.

he is trading with nobody: in the flow of orders to which he will tap his order he may buy from and sell to the long term traders even if he himself is a scalper and vice versa

but i agree that depending on what kind of trader one is, he will be looking at different time frames (hence the prisms which i mentioned)

Actually he is trading with somebody, though he may not be aware of it. The profit potential lies in knowing who is looking at what and trading in synch with those who have similar objectives, e.g., those who trade daily charts rather than those who trade intraday movements.

The trader who understands that the scalper is interested in minutes and even seconds will be looking at and trading very different movements than he who is interested in movements that will last days and weeks.

When traders of varying timeframes all trade in the same direction, the movements can be powerful, such as with climax highs and lows. Most of the time, though, traders are trading at cross-purposes, leading to chop and directionlessness. Traders who believe that everybody is looking at the "same thing" will be clueless as to why price is moving so haphazardly and "randomly".

 

[qxr1011]

Possible but not likely intentional since the two have different objectives and seek opportunities in different places. Therefore, they will be looking at different levels or points of support and resistance, even if they're each using indicators.



Actually he is trading with somebody, though he may not be aware of it. The profit potential lies in knowing who is looking at what and trading in synch with those who have similar objectives, e.g., those who trade daily charts rather than those who trade intraday movements.

The trader who understands that the scalper is interested in minutes and even seconds will be looking at and trading very different movements than he who is interested in movements that will last days and weeks.

When traders of varying timeframes all trade in the same direction, the movements can be powerful, such as with climax highs and lows. Most of the time, though, traders are trading at cross-purposes, leading to chop and directionlessness. Traders who believe that everybody is looking at the "same thing" will be clueless as to why price is moving so haphazardly and "randomly".

ok

 

[Handle123]

Crazy backtesting stats you have there.

MA seems to be a large part of your decision making. Have you tried removing it when backtesting? How much did the results diff with and without?

One more question: Trading off 60 mins and looking for entries on lower time frame like 5/1m. Should lower time frames be on the correct side of MA as well? Since I often identify locations on hourly (now added this MA on hourlyfor decision/filtering).

The sixty minute system I use does not enter on lower timeframe, as far using longer timeframes to give trend on smaller timeframes, I don't see the point as I have small makeable targets or get out quickly for day trading. For much longer term trading Commodities I don't use trend at all for trades I first get into nor any added trades I get in, most likely why they work, I don't use trend at all. I only found Scalping to be long time profitable for me, so whether very long term trading or one minute bars, part of my Scalping skills based on money management are in all of them. I have a set time of staying in a trade when first put on and don't get married to it unless it is running along in direction I planned it to go.

You ask 100 people about politics and you will get 100 different answers, same with trading.

 

[Dolemite]

Please read my post!

Trading is not about predicting but about the probabilities.

Exactly, probability being 50/50 heads vs. tails no matter what your chart is telling you.

 

[Money Trust]

S&R, from my experience has a lot to do with context.

 

[lovethetrade]

Okay, let's try the simple thought experiment here: if support and resistance worked *all* the time then price would range *all* the time and never actually break out of it. We know that's not how markets work - ergo a given support and resistance will eventually be broken (for whatever reason).

Don't confuse "more often than not" with "always." If you want always, you don't want this game.

The market is constantly affected by support and resistance dynamics in all time-frames (but not necessarily at the same time), otherwise price would move more fluidly.

 

[Mtrader]

Exactly, probability being 50/50 heads vs. tails no matter what your chart is telling you.

Personal interaction can influence this 50/50 probability. I see around me prove on a daily basis. My trading never was, and will never be 50/50. I optimize my chances and reduce numbers and size of losing trades. If you cannot do that you are not a trader but a gambler. And for gamblers in the long run the 50/50 is correct.
The change in probablities measures the quality of the trader.

Heads vs tails also have as result +1 or -1 (right or wrong). In trading this is complelety different as it will be between minus infinite and plus infinite. If I lose I have a stop, so limited losses, if I win I let it run and make much more the the max loss of a losing trades. Result is that even at 50/505 I make money. In tossing at 50/50 the result is always zero.

 

[Mtrader]

The market is constantly affected by support and resistance dynamics in all time-frames (but not necessarily at the same time), otherwise price would move more fluidly.

Yes, but these support and resistance dynamics are not exclusively created by drawing lines on charts.
Support and resistance can also be found by mathematical approach. You can find support and resistance dynamics in many ways, not only by drawing lines on tops and bottoms. And depending on the different approach, results can be (and will be) different too.
I never draw any line on any chart, but I use math. The fact that I find more or less tops and bottoms shows that I find supports and resistance levels too. And they are different from what the "linedrawers" find. They have also a higher probabilitiy of being right as I include other things to filter out the wong signals.

If you draw a line you would say after: a double or a triple top .... can happen.
If calculate S/R I would know with high probablity which one of these two tops will be the corect one. Makes a huge difference in the long run.
Whereas line drawing has a lot of IF's, math can replace them by YES or NO.

 

[Sergio77]

It's voodoo. Tarot cards. You see what you want to see.

LOL. True.