support/resistance in YM

[sportmatt37]

thanks for the responses exactly what i was looking for

let me know if that backtesting goes well!

 

[5Pillars]

Here is the start of an "idea string" for you as to what might get you thinking - "string theory" works!


Lets say 1262.00 was your significant s/r level -


Bracket trade long account -

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=40005&u=5pillars&a=5Pillars&id=1699

Bracket trade short account -

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=40006&u=5pillars&a=5Pillars&id=1699


(*** DISCLAIMER*** Trademaven is shown for backtesting purposes only and is not being shown as "advice" to use this platform for real trading - LOL! )

How you manage, space out from s/r, or enter/exit bracket trades is up to you - but I am just trying to throw out some ideas for you to have a starting point.

 

[5Pillars]

And you can make the trade to fit your risk level, it is all up to your choice and profit goals per trade -

Long account -

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=40007&u=5pillars&a=5Pillars&id=1699

Short account -

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=40008&u=5pillars&a=5Pillars&id=1699


The mechanics of congestion at these levels is the hard part, but I will tell you right away it can be figured out - just open up your mind.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from Lamont_C:



Yes, one can plot S/R in advance, and should. But then he has to pay close attention to what happens there when price approaches, crosses, recoils. If nothing happens, then it's not S/R. If something does, what? where? for how long? over what range? Does it blow through and never look back (in which case, you got it right)?

Or does it slip into an immediate congestive battle (in which case, you almost got it right, and in which case the probabilities plummet back toward 50:50, or worse)?

There's more to S/R than just calculating Fib or drawing a trendline or finding the high of the day. If it isn't a zone of activity, it's not S/R.

=================

SportsMatt;
Thats a good one.

Underlying stock trends help also;
they tend to show in YM, ES.

As Jeff Hirsch/Stock Traders Almanac so wrote;
first days of the month [like mostly first week of MAY=up, not June]
occasional middle days [like next week , these tend to be up-support may hold]
last days of the month, tend to be up, [even if up weaker in downtrend, like last uptrend in May looked to clear 50dma but did not]]

In other words , after the middle of month,
because of May/JUNE monthly , weekly ,daily downtrends;
resistance can be stronger than support simply because of downtrend action,50 period average downtrending .

Its an obvious probability on intraday charts also.

 

[scalper21]

Quote from sportmatt37:



My question is, are there any clues to when a contract might break through the resistance or when it might be stopped? Anything would be apreciated, whter level 2s or T&S or some technical indicators. I just want to be able to figure out if, on a given trade, there is a relativly low probablity of the index violating the support/resistance level. Thanks for your help

(oh and also, if you have any other random tips for trading the YM, feel free to post )
thanks again

You defininetly should be watching the ES(S&P 500 mini) contract. At times the Dow will have a mind of its own, but normally it will ride the wave of the S&P 500.

 

[sportmatt37]

thanks for the replies all very usefull

 

[volente_00]

There are a lot of factors to consider. Did the market open gapped up or down ? How extreme was the move to where you are shorting or going long ? Is a key reversal time approaching ? Do you see how support became resistance for the past 3 days ?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_YM.M06.E&v=i

 

[Cheese]

Quote from sportmatt37:
Hello all. I've recently started trading the YM on an intraday basis. ..
The main strategy I have been employing has been trying to go countertrend at support/resistance to try and grab a few points.
..

OK what support/resistance? On what timeframe chart or on what size of tick, range or volume chart?

Now price if at an expected support or resistance, can and does overlap them even if ultimately price appears to respect them for the moment. How are you handling that?

Bottom line: support & resistance play will not make you your fortune whatever merits or demerits are argued for it.

 

[ticktrade]

sm37
A site that is good at s/r is tradestalker.com, you can check out his nightly updates for free on a one day delay basis. May help confirm areas you find.
Another thing to look at that I found priceless is a thread about market profile by Bolter. Cant find the link now but if you search for his name and scroll back a ways you'll find it. There were lots of posts.

 

[sportmatt37]

Quote from Cheese:

OK what support/resistance? On what timeframe chart or on what size of tick, range or volume chart?

Now price if at an expected support or resistance, can and does overlap them even if ultimately price appears to respect them for the moment. How are you handling that?

Bottom line: support & resistance play will not make you your fortune whatever merits or demerits are argued for it.

so cheese, at the risk of being naive, what do you think is the best way to trade the futures?