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Support and resistance Question...
- Thread starter Kastro_316
- Start date
There have been four bounces off the carryover channel so far. The first two were a double bottom which is common on low volume.
Otherwise there have been consistent retraces off the left channel line following each bounce.
Now we are in new midday territory where the carryover trendline (right line) is climbing at a constant slope towards the top of R. This is a pennant construct that evermore restricts the space in which the price may operate.
This situation is shown in chart 10. You can see the "position" aspect of this third level of channel duration.
Otherwise there have been consistent retraces off the left channel line following each bounce.
Now we are in new midday territory where the carryover trendline (right line) is climbing at a constant slope towards the top of R. This is a pennant construct that evermore restricts the space in which the price may operate.
This situation is shown in chart 10. You can see the "position" aspect of this third level of channel duration.
Attachments
Quote from Grob109:
Thanks for the indepth charts and analysis. I had one question regarding sitting out when volume is below a certain level.
On bar 44, you say that you get short and hold. What is the difference between bars 45,46,47, and 48 when you are sitting and holding the short compared to bars 34,35,38,39,40 where you would be sidelined due to centering. All these bars are below 4500 in volume which to me indicated danger zone and sideline.
Both instances we get du for at least 2 bars. In one instance you are holding the icebreg short and the other you are sidelined.
Could you explain what you are looking at as the differnce where it is "ok" to hold in once instance and sideline in another instance. Are you looking for divergence off of the macd to start the trend?
thanks
There isn't a lot of room on the chart to annotate. Here is the text.
Point A is a big deal. You should stay very focused on the market as price comes into a place where there is no room to maneuver.
The market is an accumulation of many person's input and influences at any given time. the othe side of the coin is how people go through gathering data, doing analysis, making decisions based upon what is in their heads and their emotions. They will be ACTING upon all this stuff as time passes and they consider the circumstances , situation and condition.
To make money it is best to be PUSHED by these people. I stay on the "right" side of the market for this purpose.
When something ends, it is no longer a consideration for making money. It is in the category of past events. Do not "talk" or think about the past for decision making.
We come to the end of the carry over and bars 50 and 51 are running a PRV that is at "extreme". You have ten straight minutes of volume driven translation through 4 points for 10 contracts, say, where you accummulate 2 thousand dollars on ES.
It ends within a FTT, 2 pair, and spike where you reverse and pick up a retrace of 1 and 1/2 points for 10 contracts for another 750 dollars. you are one the right side of the traverse which means........
You are looking to traverse left to right to the channel trend line that was formed by the point A point 2 and point 3. On medium/low volume you get there with a HVS set of SCT trades that slaom or you sideline after taking a lot of money out of the market. See lateral chanel lines that look lousy.
See the lateral bottoms pull up on a flat top pennant. you see the black volume do this for you.
next you see a DU followed by red volume.
You are now ready for something that is red and a money maker.
You get it and you have set the low for the day which is slightly higher than the overnite low drawn in at the beginning of the day.
We have three of the four parts of the "W" done at thing point.
On 10 contracts in that leg using beginner stuff you logged 2750 in profits on a hold and reverse in ten minutes.
The parts of channel lines that are drawn that have any importance are those parts that you are coming to NOW or in the foreseeable future. What is foreseeable is drawn at all times. think of it as a principle of physics kind of thing. The glue that gives the market a "melody" is its migrating continuity as a non continuous function.
It is like Danto's (Columbia Unitversity) symmetric philosophy of history. NOW is the axis of symmetry and what is important in the near term and it's relative importance is determined by the equal aspects of the near term past. This is a comment that softens my statements about the past above stated.
The guardians of ET assign me a lot of responsibilty for the failures of others. Their views leave a lot to be desired, but I feel that I am able to actually help others help themselves in great contrast to contrast to their views.
So how on bar 49 et al does the carryover come to the point of a symmetric pennant on dry up volume.
As you would imagine, it happens with definite and pervasive impact.
The market participants nail the end of the carryover. another phase of market position activity begins at this time. It actually begins at point A before this as a de facto abrigation of not being able to test the top of R any longer. If a trader gets anything at some point in time, it is "insight".
I am trying to break up the day to give you "insight" I have about 10 times so far in this brought you to places where you can experience "getting" insight. For 4 out of 5 this is Bull$hit as lead by the top frequency posters of ET. For the vast minority, it is sinking in as a "process" that requires work and time and making "provisional" personal "belief" packets.
I can best make points by setting a scene that is uniformly "normal and usual and then showing what the "few" specific telltale signals are that take a sensitive and conscious person to the next place to "anticipate' what migration of the market still remains that is "not blocked" by all the other conditions the market has passed upon at a given time.
When a person emerges into this "space" with a full set of beliefs that are to be "trusted" above all others, that is the NO BULL$HIT space above all others. You get there by working through situations with deep experiences way beyond AHA land.
For me every single day is filled with oppotunities just like the 21MAY opportunity is. Here I am posting my consciousness based upon my beliefs.
Point A is a big deal. You should stay very focused on the market as price comes into a place where there is no room to maneuver.
The market is an accumulation of many person's input and influences at any given time. the othe side of the coin is how people go through gathering data, doing analysis, making decisions based upon what is in their heads and their emotions. They will be ACTING upon all this stuff as time passes and they consider the circumstances , situation and condition.
To make money it is best to be PUSHED by these people. I stay on the "right" side of the market for this purpose.
When something ends, it is no longer a consideration for making money. It is in the category of past events. Do not "talk" or think about the past for decision making.
We come to the end of the carry over and bars 50 and 51 are running a PRV that is at "extreme". You have ten straight minutes of volume driven translation through 4 points for 10 contracts, say, where you accummulate 2 thousand dollars on ES.
It ends within a FTT, 2 pair, and spike where you reverse and pick up a retrace of 1 and 1/2 points for 10 contracts for another 750 dollars. you are one the right side of the traverse which means........
You are looking to traverse left to right to the channel trend line that was formed by the point A point 2 and point 3. On medium/low volume you get there with a HVS set of SCT trades that slaom or you sideline after taking a lot of money out of the market. See lateral chanel lines that look lousy.
See the lateral bottoms pull up on a flat top pennant. you see the black volume do this for you.
next you see a DU followed by red volume.
You are now ready for something that is red and a money maker.
You get it and you have set the low for the day which is slightly higher than the overnite low drawn in at the beginning of the day.
We have three of the four parts of the "W" done at thing point.
On 10 contracts in that leg using beginner stuff you logged 2750 in profits on a hold and reverse in ten minutes.
The parts of channel lines that are drawn that have any importance are those parts that you are coming to NOW or in the foreseeable future. What is foreseeable is drawn at all times. think of it as a principle of physics kind of thing. The glue that gives the market a "melody" is its migrating continuity as a non continuous function.
It is like Danto's (Columbia Unitversity) symmetric philosophy of history. NOW is the axis of symmetry and what is important in the near term and it's relative importance is determined by the equal aspects of the near term past. This is a comment that softens my statements about the past above stated.
The guardians of ET assign me a lot of responsibilty for the failures of others. Their views leave a lot to be desired, but I feel that I am able to actually help others help themselves in great contrast to contrast to their views.
So how on bar 49 et al does the carryover come to the point of a symmetric pennant on dry up volume.
As you would imagine, it happens with definite and pervasive impact.
The market participants nail the end of the carryover. another phase of market position activity begins at this time. It actually begins at point A before this as a de facto abrigation of not being able to test the top of R any longer. If a trader gets anything at some point in time, it is "insight".
I am trying to break up the day to give you "insight" I have about 10 times so far in this brought you to places where you can experience "getting" insight. For 4 out of 5 this is Bull$hit as lead by the top frequency posters of ET. For the vast minority, it is sinking in as a "process" that requires work and time and making "provisional" personal "belief" packets.
I can best make points by setting a scene that is uniformly "normal and usual and then showing what the "few" specific telltale signals are that take a sensitive and conscious person to the next place to "anticipate' what migration of the market still remains that is "not blocked" by all the other conditions the market has passed upon at a given time.
When a person emerges into this "space" with a full set of beliefs that are to be "trusted" above all others, that is the NO BULL$HIT space above all others. You get there by working through situations with deep experiences way beyond AHA land.
For me every single day is filled with oppotunities just like the 21MAY opportunity is. Here I am posting my consciousness based upon my beliefs.
Attachments
I added some comments on the third leg on the chart.
They pertain to the change of pace and change of volatility of that leg.
the last leg of the W day sets you up for the Monday trading. Deja Vu all over again so to speak.
what you got to notice most of all in these posts is thatthe bars do come to the sides of the channel AFTER the point1,2,3 set up your pathway for money to fill in.
As a major consequence you have guidelines for making effective and efficient trades.
I have spoken of the markets "efficiency". What i mean is that it "delivers".
The market goes along. It migrates. it does not surprise at all.
You "connect" through your experience, knowledge, beliefs and emotions. as these things improve and become excellent, you become effective.
That is you are able to "stay with the beat" and hear the market "melody".
Once you get to that place, you can "play" with the band.
What comes next is the itierative refinement process that tips your equity curve upward for quite a while and then it becomes asyptotic to a a very very "efficient" slope of taking money out of the market with the use of a set maximum amount of capital.
While all of this is "ridiculus" to 4/5 of ET, you can, at this point, look forward to taking a sdmall amount of capital up to 10 ES contracts in the near term. At that point, you get to nail 2,750 dollars of profits within a leg in a matter of 10 minutes.
What I get out of posting is not going to be understood in ET.
I put up with the character assassination as usual. I regard most of it as ill chosen unthoughtfulness by people who are actually looking at me from a poor place to be. This is part of ET.
They pertain to the change of pace and change of volatility of that leg.
the last leg of the W day sets you up for the Monday trading. Deja Vu all over again so to speak.
what you got to notice most of all in these posts is thatthe bars do come to the sides of the channel AFTER the point1,2,3 set up your pathway for money to fill in.
As a major consequence you have guidelines for making effective and efficient trades.
I have spoken of the markets "efficiency". What i mean is that it "delivers".
The market goes along. It migrates. it does not surprise at all.
You "connect" through your experience, knowledge, beliefs and emotions. as these things improve and become excellent, you become effective.
That is you are able to "stay with the beat" and hear the market "melody".
Once you get to that place, you can "play" with the band.
What comes next is the itierative refinement process that tips your equity curve upward for quite a while and then it becomes asyptotic to a a very very "efficient" slope of taking money out of the market with the use of a set maximum amount of capital.
While all of this is "ridiculus" to 4/5 of ET, you can, at this point, look forward to taking a sdmall amount of capital up to 10 ES contracts in the near term. At that point, you get to nail 2,750 dollars of profits within a leg in a matter of 10 minutes.
What I get out of posting is not going to be understood in ET.
I put up with the character assassination as usual. I regard most of it as ill chosen unthoughtfulness by people who are actually looking at me from a poor place to be. This is part of ET.
Attachments
Quote from nwbprop:
Thanks for the indepth charts and analysis. I had one question regarding sitting out when volume is below a certain level.
On bar 44, you say that you get short and hold. What is the difference between bars 45,46,47, and 48 when you are sitting and holding the short compared to bars 34,35,38,39,40 where you would be sidelined due to centering. All these bars are below 4500 in volume which to me indicated danger zone and sideline.
Both instances we get du for at least 2 bars. In one instance you are holding the icebreg short and the other you are sidelined.
Could you explain what you are looking at as the differnce where it is "ok" to hold in once instance and sideline in another instance. Are you looking for divergence off of the macd to start the trend?
thanks
Good questions. Compare and contrast is a great way to refine ones thinking.
You can see a little of my character from my response here.
You are very right about th danger. This is a risky time where the limits of quirky moves comes from the protection of continuing low volume. I am on DOM for this as a fine vernier.
For riding the top of R on the noise going through CCC it is a habit for me to try to eak out ticks. The SCT rhythm of slaloming. The Fast STOC 5,2,3 is a helper for this. Secretly, I would enjoy the sweat of the Top of R and continue to fool around. That is where the three pink pennant right sides come from. I look at it as iceberging between 50% and the 20% also. Point and counterpoint. It is a short modus where it spikes over and over off the top of R.
By the time bar 44 hits I am seeing more on STOC (below 20 and potential div. Also I am seeing the carryover coming into view and play as I move away from top of R.
The HVS parts of every day happen to be very rewarding. these bars do not represent that stuff; it came later within the third leg.
I am glad you are spending the time on this. Two weeks from now you will be very glad you did. With ten days of doing this, besides it's greater efficiencies, you will see that a lot of things that are not important will be drifting out of the picture.
Quote from BA_Trader:
Perhaps you are just being hetorical -- I'll answer anyway...
if we are out we are out to the left which is just deeper. To
the right is when we are really out... the right is where change
happens.
Your answer to my semi segway question is a good one.
The fact is we focus on making money and go for the gold ring. The "deeper" values.
Were I doing a 100,000 share hold on an equity using a similar chart. The game plan would be to unload in blocks at max T&S size goin into the deepest place across it and be out ASAP after that.
What happens for the "really" part is a TA "sufficiency" question. Cetainly it is always "possible" for a bounce on the trendline and then another pair of traverses.
Here is where I am on that. There is only one FTT usually. This having occurred I feel that the sufficiency is building up and the balance has tipped.
I can say to you that there are many many young people out there who have the inate ability to "go to the moon" on making money.
Lets say a few do get together and work as a team to really start to park money in their accounts. What is the "key" for them to be so rich and productive.
It is not macro analysis. Not back testing "edges". Not merging edges.
I am a finalist judge of the business grad school annual problem solving competition. I get to sit around in the presence of this national talent pool that does not even consider sleeping for the entire multiday event. (another person and I are financing another day of it next year...LOL). He runs the largest credit card recovery firm in the US.
Imagine somehow a team of talented types that can program get to the place where they can spread capital around to do this stuff in all markets and not saturate them. I know I have to limit myself to 10% of cummulative trading on a daily basis in equities for example.
All of the futures markets can be totally ripped. When you do the two part answer you do for the rhetorical Q, you are simply in the place where the specific key action is for doing "go/no go" for ripping the market. It is a compound twin stream software package where you use the "really" as the "carrier" for the "deep" pulling of capital. You do it on each level of the four channels I posted using independent accounts. The slope of the levels of the four channels is the money velocity for each.
If you want an example of the non team version, go back to the first scientist post where he mentions SCT in a spelled out manner, i. e., look for the pair of words "seamless continuous"
The AGA variation in SCT is only there to break fibrulation on single fractal trading. The alternative you "raise" in your post. It is the "deep" and "really" test pair combo.
this series of posts is designed to vanquish the myth that channel lines are "after the fact". They aren't. Believing that they "must" be is a tough thing to have to carry as baggage. All the mistake myths that people carry is so mentally debilitating as we see in that venue of posts made.
I'm going off the cuff here... and really posting out of
a certain amount of pure enthusiasm... but the
"deep/really" -- "left side/right side" HORIZONTAL
way of thinking was my first big-time aha moment
when going through your stuff. This is a major
league concept (as you are pointing out in this
thread)
Also on APA -- to "break fibrulation on single fractal
trading" ... I have some thoughts on this particular
issue. This is a side of effect of trade data getting
quantized arbitrarily (by uniform time units starting
from 9:30).
Well - what about a constant Volume chart as
oppposed to constant time?? Time is now an
indicator the way volume is on a typical chart. I have
this concept on back-burner and I'm hoping someone
has played with this idea.
I still need to review these posts in detail - perhaps
I'll have something more interesting to contribute
afterwards.
JT
a certain amount of pure enthusiasm... but the
"deep/really" -- "left side/right side" HORIZONTAL
way of thinking was my first big-time aha moment
when going through your stuff. This is a major
league concept (as you are pointing out in this
thread)
Also on APA -- to "break fibrulation on single fractal
trading" ... I have some thoughts on this particular
issue. This is a side of effect of trade data getting
quantized arbitrarily (by uniform time units starting
from 9:30).
Well - what about a constant Volume chart as
oppposed to constant time?? Time is now an
indicator the way volume is on a typical chart. I have
this concept on back-burner and I'm hoping someone
has played with this idea.
I still need to review these posts in detail - perhaps
I'll have something more interesting to contribute
afterwards.
JT
Quote from BA_Trader:
Well - what about a constant Volume chart as oppposed to constant
time?? Time is now an indicator the way volume is on a typical chart. I have this
concept on back-burner and I'm hoping someone has played with this idea.
I still need to review these posts in detail - perhaps I'll have
something more interesting to contribute afterwards.
JT [/B]
A Volume Chart is perfection as the readable form of price. Whatever your flavor of trading Method . . . the volume chart is unbeatable.