Support and Resistance is Random
- Thread starter Q3D
- Start date
Reaction to zones is random, so?
LOL! Cracked me UP!!
Its ok to warn others but its not ok to lie or bend the truth because most here are adults and will see what your doing is just poor taste. For example, you state "losers tend to prefer not to be seen". In contrast, many have threads at this forum and they are losing publicly. Simply, you attempted to bend the truth or outright lie.
Yes, there are traders misled by gurus and we have a bitch thread about such down in the education section that I've seen you participate in. Just the same, others have not been misled and use them. The problem is that you're blaming the industry as a whole while bending the truth via using some of them to try to prove some price action belief you have is true. For example, you used Mr. Grimes to say your belief about everything correlates with his. I've quoted Mr. Grimes to you and its clear you're incorrect. You believer TA or chart analysis is incorrect for EVERYTHING. Mr. Grimes does not and clearly believes in "simple patterns" and states he is profitable. He's also an educator and book author and that implies you actually have a problem with some educators while not having a problem with others via your example (use) of Mr. Grimes.
That's the problem you're not willing to acknowledge...that bending of the truth or lies has put you where you're at today in your frustration that's more psychological related than trading related. That is what people here at this forum does not like about you because you're unable to do what they do...
They specifically talk about the difficulties of trading, they start journals without fabricating something and some talk about why they are losing and others talk about being profitable. I know you're aware of such because I've seen you ask questions or blame the guru via your statements in their threads even though they are NOT using gurus.
In fact, most of those here that I've seen that talk about being profitable...many of them do not like gurus and/or don't use them or openly bash gurus. Seriously, you should have just stuck with that thread down in the education section where everybody is bitching and calling for investigations, FINRA, SEC or whatever. Instead, all you've done is alienated yourself publicly via hijacking threads or starting threads with misleading information that others and I have called you out about. Result as you revealed yourself is that you get your support from a minority of traders in private message...believing in how you bend the facts or lie (e.g. day trading gurus prey on at risk families...you did such while oblivious to the fact that at risk families do not have funds to get involve in day trading or investing) or maybe they only believe some of things you say such as that "day trading is difficult"...the latter I agree with...
Day trading is difficult and sometimes very stressful.
Good luck and I sincerely hope you get some help with your problems that you seem to not be able to manage.
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All I know is what works. Nothing that any article says will change that.
Ok so even if everything in TA is completely random, that still means by law of probabilities you should still have a 50/50 chance of "guessing" the correct direction. With proper risk management you should still be at profitable it might not be a living's worth, and there may be some draw downs but long term should still be in the black. If you are not, then it means that you either don't have proper risk management and/or you are consistently reading the data wrong thus are getting a much less than 50% correct guesses. In truth TA is not completely random, nor is it 100% accurate. It can help to guide the decision making.
Think about it like this. If you were trying to make a living betting on a specific football team. For each game they in theory have a 50/50 chance of winning, just like the market right? However, if the team has lost the last 10 games (market downtrend) and the book makers have the odds stacked against them, then are you going to bet they win or that they lose?
Of course in the case of the football team you would probably want some fundamental analyses to back that up. Are there any injured players, is a really good previously injured player returning this game, home field advantage, etc. You can use this type of analysis in equities as well to improve your odds.
Think about it like this. If you were trying to make a living betting on a specific football team. For each game they in theory have a 50/50 chance of winning, just like the market right? However, if the team has lost the last 10 games (market downtrend) and the book makers have the odds stacked against them, then are you going to bet they win or that they lose?
Of course in the case of the football team you would probably want some fundamental analyses to back that up. Are there any injured players, is a really good previously injured player returning this game, home field advantage, etc. You can use this type of analysis in equities as well to improve your odds.
What if we told you we've been losing all these years, just like you? Will that do? If 0.001-5% win, the rest of us just lose.
The true difference is by how much, how we take it and how we move forward. Giving up is too easy, and boring.
Back to the process, or just rest, take a good break!
By your latest post, I think you're ready to admit that this game isn't for you right now, and you're in no position to advice others. If you lose so little that you can take it, maybe your advice have some merit.
Heck, who cares anyways what society or anyone thinks as long as it's not hurting anyone?
Sadly, there are bureaucrats who have this guy's mentality who also have the power to change laws to "protect the small investor"...The nanny state is full of these misguided fools.
I see you've posted a lot of threads about "XXX doesn't work."
Trading is really hard.
Everyone knows where support and resistance are. That's why it gets gamey and frustrating around those levels.
The elusive "edge" is in using your experience and skill as a trader -- not to trade it perfectly the first time every time, but to know when it's in your best interests to sit it out, or try, or fade, or try a second time, etc.
When something is at "resistance," how do you know if that's a sell because it will hold or a buy because it's a breakout? (Or a sit-out because it's going to be a bunch of shit?)
1) you don't
2) you get better at knowing when to try one way or the other over time
I'm sorry you're going through a difficult time with your trading.
If you want to be mad and prove things don't work, the market will be more than happy to cooperate and take as much of your money as it can.
If you want to get better as a trader, dial back.
Trade less, trade smaller.
Get more experience, pick the things that really make the most sense to you and look the best to you, and risk an amount that you can afford to lose without too much frustration.
Good luck!
Trading is really hard.
Everyone knows where support and resistance are. That's why it gets gamey and frustrating around those levels.
The elusive "edge" is in using your experience and skill as a trader -- not to trade it perfectly the first time every time, but to know when it's in your best interests to sit it out, or try, or fade, or try a second time, etc.
When something is at "resistance," how do you know if that's a sell because it will hold or a buy because it's a breakout? (Or a sit-out because it's going to be a bunch of shit?)
1) you don't
2) you get better at knowing when to try one way or the other over time
I'm sorry you're going through a difficult time with your trading.
If you want to be mad and prove things don't work, the market will be more than happy to cooperate and take as much of your money as it can.
If you want to get better as a trader, dial back.
Trade less, trade smaller.
Get more experience, pick the things that really make the most sense to you and look the best to you, and risk an amount that you can afford to lose without too much frustration.
Good luck!
Trading is difficult regardless if you are day trading, short term, long term, whether futures, stocks, mutual funds or options. One huge reason is YOU have to select whether to buy, sell or stay on sidelines. You know why Vegas and bookies make a ton of money? They don't have to select is one reason and other is the "juice" the 10% they get from winners which are less than the losers most of the time.
Those that advertise like brokers, magazines, book writers, so few of them actually trade. Most of them are like flea market vendors making a little on every sale to pay the rent, food, etc...
Volumes in the future markets been slowly going down through the years, less people trading, and smaller traders are figuring it out they have little to no edge. It takes so much time to get decent, 95% min would make more at McDonalds. I really don't know how people pay to live and learn how to trade unless they working nights or have some incredible spouse believing other can do the next to impossible.
I am all for more books being written by Three Stooges or whoever, cause someone buying their books are not going to be able to go to the markets with much of that. It might be a very tiny amount of the puzzle, but you a long way from being profitable. And it is possible to be retail and do ok eventually, but so many are never ready to going live, they just throw away their funds on nothing. Really, if you can't be profitable 18/20 days in sim, it going to be harder when the stresses of real time happen and you praying you profitable 15/20.
You have to be smart enough to know you not too bright by opening up an account cause you years from trading real time. All you need in one signal to be profitable, not tons of them, you have to learn when not to take those signals and you have to study what price does on each bar after you get in. It is much more than learning S/R, you have to breakdown price even more. And you have to buy data unless you can get good data for free.
Patterns are random, you don't know when they will pop up, patterns happen cause it is a crowd thing, of price being forced to go one direction by those who are going to throw volume at it. Has no rhythm or reason of why something stops and goes the other way except those throwing volume at it says so, you think your one lot going to move the market? The best you can do is identify a reoccurring pattern that those who throw size at it and you going to coat tail.
TA, if you going to just do TA, chances are you will lose and lose horrible most. If you going to learn chart reading and what affects the indicator will do when price does something, then you onto something. Indicators are to indicate and make chart reading easier.
Those that advertise like brokers, magazines, book writers, so few of them actually trade. Most of them are like flea market vendors making a little on every sale to pay the rent, food, etc...
Volumes in the future markets been slowly going down through the years, less people trading, and smaller traders are figuring it out they have little to no edge. It takes so much time to get decent, 95% min would make more at McDonalds. I really don't know how people pay to live and learn how to trade unless they working nights or have some incredible spouse believing other can do the next to impossible.
I am all for more books being written by Three Stooges or whoever, cause someone buying their books are not going to be able to go to the markets with much of that. It might be a very tiny amount of the puzzle, but you a long way from being profitable. And it is possible to be retail and do ok eventually, but so many are never ready to going live, they just throw away their funds on nothing. Really, if you can't be profitable 18/20 days in sim, it going to be harder when the stresses of real time happen and you praying you profitable 15/20.
You have to be smart enough to know you not too bright by opening up an account cause you years from trading real time. All you need in one signal to be profitable, not tons of them, you have to learn when not to take those signals and you have to study what price does on each bar after you get in. It is much more than learning S/R, you have to breakdown price even more. And you have to buy data unless you can get good data for free.
Patterns are random, you don't know when they will pop up, patterns happen cause it is a crowd thing, of price being forced to go one direction by those who are going to throw volume at it. Has no rhythm or reason of why something stops and goes the other way except those throwing volume at it says so, you think your one lot going to move the market? The best you can do is identify a reoccurring pattern that those who throw size at it and you going to coat tail.
TA, if you going to just do TA, chances are you will lose and lose horrible most. If you going to learn chart reading and what affects the indicator will do when price does something, then you onto something. Indicators are to indicate and make chart reading easier.