Supply Chain Issues

[kmiklas]

I too question what's behind this scarcity and can't believe that factory shutting down for 3-4 months can have such impact. A 2 year chip shortage?? I call bs..., but I'm not smart enough to understand the bigger picture and where to put my money to make the best of it.

Yeah this whole story is a little fishy.

 

[ipatent]

Maybe part of a low level trade war

 

[longandshort]

Data isn't the challenge, extrapolation is. All this data doesn't explain the shortage, to which you can now add concerted efforts by unions to push for more benefits as strikes are ramping up in the US.

I too question what's behind this scarcity and can't believe that factory shutting down for 3-4 months can have such impact. A 2 year chip shortage?? I call bs, but I'm not smart enough to understand the bigger picture and where to put my money to make the best of it.

I know a bit about port operations so here's my take, although it doesn't address the big picture. Ports in Socal don't work 3rd shifts (3 to 8 am) because of labor cost (US longshore is one of the highest paid labor in the world). Basically, companies aren't willing to pay the cost of faster deliveries.
What the Administration probably did is to authorize payment and subsidize that 3rd shift. In effect, it doesn't contribute to inflation because the added shipping cost isn't passed on to consumers by business. You could also see it as a kickback to the labor union for their political support. They are going to feast on that 3rd shift.

Ports also have not been fully staffed because of Covid outbreaks and not enough workers, so they are pulling cargo more slowly. This has resulted in more containers being stuck on ships, driving a shortage of containers.

On the semiconductor front, a lot of components are made in south east Asia which has been hit pretty bad by Covid. Add that to the fact that when Covid first hit, most companies cut their orders, and when Covid abated, they all added orders back at the same time. This, in addition to still challenging work environments due to Covid, has meant that output has not been as high as it needs to be in order to satiate demand. As this situation persist the backlog will continue to grow until price begins to damage demand. This is classical macro theory lol.

 

[VicBee]

Ports also have not been fully staffed because of Covid outbreaks and not enough workers, so they are pulling cargo more slowly. This has resulted in more containers being stuck on ships, driving a shortage of containers.

On the semiconductor front, a lot of components are made in south east Asia which has been hit pretty bad by Covid. Add that to the fact that when Covid first hit, most companies cut their orders, and when Covid abated, they all added orders back at the same time. This, in addition to still challenging work environments due to Covid, has meant that output has not been as high as it needs to be in order to satiate demand. As this situation persist the backlog will continue to grow until price begins to damage demand. This is classical macro theory lol.

I get it, that's the story we're being fed and the one I don't believe, although I don't have a better explanation.

Do you know what "not fully staffed, not enough workers" really means?

 

[maxinger]

I get it, that's the story we're being fed and the one I don't believe, although I don't have a better explanation.

Do you know what "not fully staffed, not enough workers" really means?

1. Why factory cannot produce enough ?

workers cannot work because they are infested with covid

workers cannot travel to work because of lockdown

factories have to close because of covid cases in the factory

no electricity because of no coal. so the machines cannot run



2. why suddenly a huge demand for some products?


billions of people have to stay at home because of lockdown

suddenly many people cannot do anything except trading from home

suddenly many people buy handphones, computers, EV cars.
suddenly not enough chips.


3. why products are not available in the store / supermarket?
because of above

because at the port, port workers are sick from covid

suddenly not enough shipping containers

because of sudden demand, there is a traffic jam at the port

truck drivers are banned from transporting goods unless the goods are
very essential



4. Then why factory cannot produce more
- coal, gas, chips, shipping containers ....?


and the cycle continues and continues

 

[VicBee]

1. Why factory cannot produce enough ?

workers cannot work because they are infested with covid

workers cannot travel to work because of lockdown

factories have to close because of covid cases in the factory


2. why products are not available?
because of above

because at the port, port workers are sick from covid

because of traffic jam at the port


3. why suddenly a huge demand for some products?


billions of people have to stay at home because of lockdown

suddenly many people cannot do anything except trading from home

suddenly many people buy handphones, computers, EV cars.
suddenly not enough chips.

Thanks for making it easy for me Maxinger. Let me take your numbers and go from there...
1. I don't know where you live but in China, Korea and Taiwan, where most of everything is made, factories shut down for about 30 minutes, long enough to remove the corpses and replace them with new workers.

2. Recruiting more union dues paying workers is a basic union goal. Creating labor shortage is their strategy and, for that, covid has been God sent: "Our workers are sick, our workers are afraid, our workers aren’t protected by greedy employers, so we stand by"... I call it the union short squeeze.
Same applies to shipping lines mind you.. no crews, no ships, price increase! Somehow they need to recoup their losses from the early days of covid.

3. Yes, perhaps bored people at home bought more things... but I doubt that's why we are suddenly faced with shortages of everything.

 

[maxinger]

Thanks for making it easy for me Maxinger. Let me take your numbers and go from there...
1. I don't know where you live but in China, Korea and Taiwan, where most of everything is made, factories shut down for about 30 minutes, long enough to remove the corpses and replace them with new workers.

2. Recruiting more union dues paying workers is a basic union goal. Creating labor shortage is their strategy and, for that, covid has been God sent: "Our workers are sick, our workers are afraid, our workers aren’t protected by greedy employers, so we stand by"... I call it the union short squeeze.
Same applies to shipping lines mind you.. no crews, no ships, price increase! Somehow they need to recoup their losses from the early days of covid.

3. Yes, perhaps bored people at home bought more things... but I doubt that's why we are suddenly faced with shortages of everything.

good points.

but actually, we are facing shortages for some products only.

there are some products which are having oversupply problem
(mainly fruits and vegetables) due to some of the reasons stated earlier.

 

[murray t turtle]

Its due to a lack of workers.. Shortage of truck drivers and factory workers to name a few. Too many people are gaming the system and continuing to collect unemployment and working “ under the table”.
Also, consumers were still buying things while factories were shut down due to covid. This added to demand and back orders when things opened up as demand never diminished.

%%
Good, even though i have not seen any shortages[or sign limits] in the south where i live.
Also, LUV airline blaming weather/LOL. Actually many LUV pilots don't want an expiremental 'free'' vaccine \same way with nurses, policemen. NOT sure if Chicago mayor wants 50% of police force resigning over that ??
Plenty of people are spending; ammo sales may have slowed a bit. Stay tuned

 

[VicBee]

%%
Good, even though i have not seen any shortages[or sign limits] in the south where i live.
Also, LUV airline blaming weather/LOL. Actually many LUV pilots don't want an expiremental 'free'' vaccine \same way with nurses, policemen. NOT sure if Chicago mayor wants 50% of police force resigning over that ??
Plenty of people are spending; ammo sales may have slowed a bit. Stay tuned

Experimental? I see you're no scientist, but that Fox keeps you awake at night.

 

[murray t turtle]

Experimental? I see you're no scientist, but that Fox keeps you awake at night.

%%
LOL, keep pushing the party line ''only one snake oil cure /LOL''
Frankly that's also wrong, i dont watch FOX @ nite. Looks like you are also pretending you know more than US Senator + Medical DR Rand Paul.LOL
But as far as union short squeeze, VicBee,maybe right on that. Also, you pretending, only one snake oil cure could help increase union membership.......................................