Supply Chain Issues

kmiklas

kmiklas

They're really harping on "supply chain issues." What's going on here?

Is this for real, or horse manure? What is the the root cause? Are they caused by decreased demand? The consumer is part of the "supply chain." Is this STAGFLATION? Why has production slowed? Have people quit their jobs because of COVID? I'm hearing about all these ship docked off the coast, waiting to unload their merchandise.

The WSJ states, "
Global Supply-Chain Problems Escalate, Threatening Economic Recovery
Component shortages, surging prices of raw materials and transportation backups compound the bottlenecks
"

I feel like there's more to this... like demand is slowing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply...ovid-manufacturing-global-economy-11633713877
 
Its due to a lack of workers.. Shortage of truck drivers and factory workers to name a few. Too many people are gaming the system and continuing to collect unemployment and working “ under the table”.
Also, consumers were still buying things while factories were shut down due to covid. This added to demand and back orders when things opened up as demand never diminished.
 
brass_trader said:
Its due to a lack of workers.. Shortage of truck drivers and factory workers to name a few. Too many people are gaming the system and continuing to collect unemployment and working “ under the table”.
Also, consumers were still buying things while factories were shut down due to covid. This added to demand and back orders when things opened up as demand never diminished.
More...
You really believe this shortage of workers rhetoric?

"Supply Chain Issues" my @$$. They dance around this word, but we're in a recession.

Peeps just aren't spending! They're working from home, not buying lunch, not shopping in malls, driving the same car, not moving (real estate bubble), saving money, guarding against the upcoming flu season/potential layoffs.

Travel and leisure is at a virtual stand-still. I live 7 miles from Newark Airport in New Jersey, USA. The planes used to roar over my apartment regularly; now, if I see a plane, I point it out! "Ooh, look... there's a plane in the sky!" Who the F want's to travel with all these rules, restrictions, and masking requirements?

Nothing is moving! We need 120B/month in money printing and near-zero interest rates just to keep our head above water and stay even.
 
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jesus christ you guys don't do any research do you lol

Airline traffic: just about 70% of 2019 levels
upload_2021-10-14_10-46-13.png


customer deliveries (if it takes longer, then +50, if it takes shorter, then below 50)
upload_2021-10-14_10-49-25.png


from purchasing managers index survey:
upload_2021-10-14_10-50-32.png


container activity at ports:
upload_2021-10-14_10-52-25.png


consumers are spending money:
upload_2021-10-14_10-54-35.png
 
kmiklas said:
They're really harping on "supply chain issues." What's going on here?

Is this for real, or horse manure? What is the the root cause? Are they caused by decreased demand? The consumer is part of the "supply chain." Is this STAGFLATION? Why has production slowed? Have people quit their jobs because of COVID? I'm hearing about all these ship docked off the coast, waiting to unload their merchandise.

The global supply chain nightmare is about to get worse

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/12/business/global-supply-chain-nightmare/index.html
More...
 
kmiklas said:
You really believe this shortage of workers rhetoric?

"Supply Chain Issues" my @$$. They dance around this word, but we're in a recession.

Peeps just aren't spending! They're working from home, not buying lunch, not shopping in malls, driving the same car, not moving (real estate bubble), saving money, guarding against the upcoming flu season/potential layoffs.

Travel and leisure is at a virtual stand-still. I live 7 miles from Newark Airport in New Jersey, USA. The planes used to roar over my apartment regularly; now, if I see a plane, I point it out! "Ooh, look... there's a plane in the sky!" Who the F want's to travel with all these rules, restrictions, and masking requirements?

Nothing is moving! We need 120B/month in money printing and near-zero interest rates just to keep our head above water and stay even.
More...

This is a delusional take on things. GDP is up 6% and forecast for 5% next year. The shortage of workers is real because many traditional areas haven't adapted well. Numerous new areas of business are excelling in incredible ways these days.
 
longandshort said:
jesus christ you guys don't do any research do you lol
More...

Data isn't the challenge, extrapolation is. All this data doesn't explain the shortage, to which you can now add concerted efforts by unions to push for more benefits as strikes are ramping up in the US.

I too question what's behind this scarcity and can't believe that factory shutting down for 3-4 months can have such impact. A 2 year chip shortage?? I call bs, but I'm not smart enough to understand the bigger picture and where to put my money to make the best of it.

I know a bit about port operations so here's my take, although it doesn't address the big picture. Ports in Socal don't work 3rd shifts (3 to 8 am) because of labor cost (US longshore is one of the highest paid labor in the world). Basically, companies aren't willing to pay the cost of faster deliveries.
What the Administration probably did is to authorize payment and subsidize that 3rd shift. In effect, it doesn't contribute to inflation because the added shipping cost isn't passed on to consumers by business. You could also see it as a kickback to the labor union for their political support. They are going to feast on that 3rd shift.
 
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