Superior trader, a born talent or can be taught?

Quote from Grob109:

thanks.

Your illustration is showing 5 min bars. I assume yopu used 30 min bars as you state here. All orders were market at the time of the BO on the bar, no bar data for the trades is useful except to choose the value of the BO.

Are you going to do the other three progressions?? Check the chart I posted so you know how to do the pairs of slopes.

Could you post the reference as a red thing with a red line under it? People may want to go to where you abstrated the part you did and see what was going on to use the baseline you backtested.

The illustration is not showing 5 minute bars.
It is showing an equity curve by date.
The underlying data is 30 minute bars as you had described.
 
Quote from Chicken Little:

The illustration is not showing 5 minute bars.
It is showing an equity curve by date.
The underlying data is 30 minute bars as you had described.

Could you erase that 5min ref at the top of the chart and type in 30min in its place?? People will feel better about your results.

I get it that you are going to rely on your ref for the other three equity curves. Thanks for posting this practical method of reaching closure for me and maybe some others.
 
Quote from Grob109:

Could you erase that 5min ref at the top of the chart and type in 30min in its place?? People will feel better about your results.

I get it that you are going to rely on your ref for the other three equity curves. Thanks for posting this practical method of reaching closure for me and maybe some others.

Its probably best for those interested to try out your drill for a few days, preferably on a paper trading account and see for themselves the true value of its practice.
 
Quote from Grob109:

thanks.

Your illustration is showing 5 min bars. I assume yopu used 30 min bars as you state here. All orders were market at the time of the BO on the bar, no bar data for the trades is useful except to choose the value of the BO.

Are you going to do the other three progressions?? Check the chart I posted so you know how to do the pairs of slopes.

Could you post the reference as a red thing with a red line under it? People may want to go to where you abstrated the part you did and see what was going on to use the baseline you backtested.

In tradestation one may use multiple data streams.
On the test posted the backtest used two data streams, 5 minute and 30 minute.
All signals were derived from the 30 minute bars as you had described. The 5 minute bars are used to see how the trades performed "intrabar". The testing report states the time frame of data stream #1 irrespective of the signal stream.
Nonetheless, anyone doubting the test results may simply forward test the drill for a few days to see its practicability.
 
Quote from Chicken Little:

Its probably best for those interested to try out your drill for a few days, preferably on a paper trading account and see for themselves the true value of its practice.

If they do they may want to try the paper route using this quote you made about what I said long ago. It may be more helpful to them when they either backtest or paper trade it this way.

You said:

Chicken Little


Registered: Feb 2005
Posts: 78


10-07-05 02:47 PM



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Quote from Dantheman:

after reading more of what jack has posted (and the discussions on et)...i've concluded that this is more advanced than i am currently at.

so i'm stepping back to beginner stuff, just rockets.

won't bother posting though, there's enough stuff on the site for the 1 out of 5 people who are interested
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Hey DanDaMan,

Why not use the beginners iteration #1 with the simple breakout from the 30 min bar ? After all, Jack says any idiot, myself excluded, can easily make $75,000 per year with just the simple version. He said just quit when you've made $300 for the day and VOILA !

Okay so you are taking another unpleasant lap on your whatever.

You most recently pumped the thread in ET on the 12th and got no play.

Rocket traders were, early on (in 2000) going through some work to improve an iteration that applied originally to the DJXX before minis came into being.

Don Cameron was working to refine some stuff that he had collected for his site in Canada.

Jim Fowler (Harvard) was running the stats over and over to see if the am rockets could be most effective for beginners as an AM ONLY effort. This was before we applied the MACD hist limit and the two Stoch signals and before Pal Talk was being used. They all came about to deal with Village Idiot problems.

Your contributions to this thread are terrific and speak for themselves. They help a lot with regard to how people go through learning to trade.

The way the A/D was first automated using MACD on volume and Wilder's RSI down spike turned out to be a good prebuy signal as well. It came from a lot of people working to take some roughness out of the scoring so it could be used in the medium category. The version MAK gave the MeetUp group a month or so ago is antoher big improvement.

30 minute trading was originally named for its ability to afford a rocket trader a way to nail 300 bucks (DJXX) in 30 minutes as the market opened after Synch.

The Paltalk version of rocket trading had the additional three indicator signals "ANDED" together to make sure VI types could trade it to get to their first doubling and move on to Iceberg trading.

Go back to before I was thrown out of ET and look at all the backtesting that was done then. So many people were doing it then we had results varying by an order of magnitude. That is never going to change. You favor that stuff and how important it is for not getting involved in anything else. Very cool.

It is standard for everything that I suggest to not work according to back testing by ET backtesters. It is a terrific filter for people to use to avoid screwing around with getting the transference done to be able to use stuff I support. I do not want people who cannot do stuff remotely to fool around with their money. I call these people remotely fools. They are like Village Idiots in some ways. If there is a pitfall available they will find it an mess up using it as there special tweak on something.

There is a very long list of descriptors of what is wrong with things and a longer list of disparaging descriptors about me. This keeps people away from my stuff because they think in this vein. Another good filter for me to have between us. the ignore doesn't work for these people in ET.

I read all of these people and I do have a couple of guys on ignore. I learn about pitfalls mostly from ET and secondly in small team work groups and especially our VI team.

just think of how many people in ET flame and bash me. I do not have to worry about them losing money using my stuff.

My worry focus is on pitfalls mostly. You are a pitfall type. Leaving out the quit after you have made 300 dollars may be a flaw that let your backtest go past the am rocket time. 30 points on DJXX is 300 bucks or equivalent in another market where the same rocket occurs. Seeing the fake 5min on your chart was another pitfall sort of thing. You missed it and do not think it affects your readership. It might if they were sort of snesitive types who think and are thorough.

People who lose money doing stuff they get rom me sometimes let me know: emails, phone, meetings, flights in, etc. I do not trade more than 15 accounts under the NFA rules; those are not accounts that lose. Do you know what it is like when someone calls you who notices more than a new 1.5mil that has showed up in his account (prior level was 1.1 mil) one day? I do, and that is good for an amateur.

People will definitely lose money using my stuff. That is a fact for everyone to know. I guess I am unique in this way. No one who is an adult ever loses money using other people's suggestions.

My test is that people are having fun doing trading and making a lot of money and the vaste majority of them I will never even meet.
 
Quote from Grob109:


snip...


Jim Fowler (Harvard) was running the stats over and over to see if the am rockets could be most effective for beginners as an AM ONLY effort. This was before we applied the MACD hist limit and the two Stoch signals and before Pal Talk was being used. They all came about to deal with Village Idiot problems.

[/B]

quote james fowler
... Thus you can see numerous points at which my views and approach
cannot withstand any rigorous mathematical tests. I have made a simple
practical choice to make a lot of money instead of prove something
mathematical. I have chosen to apply mathematics in application after
application where it is not possible to mathematically link the
applications....


I don't understand why it's not possible to verify such a successful
futures trading system if it is based on objective rules. My own
attempts to automate the system have been frustrated at every turn by an
enormous problem that is apparently only resolvable by gut instinct:
when to let it ride. Jack gives instructions sometimes to get out at
congestion, but other times this congestion may really just be a
temporary jumble before the market continues its previous direction. Of
course, if we move to a higher fractal, this jumble won't look so much
like a jumble and we can ex post justify a decision not to sideline.
But I cannot figure out an objective system for determining ex ante
which fractal to make decisions on.


Jack apparently has great success in determining when to do this by
knowing the operating point of the futures market and having this
objectively linked to what time periods to use for his analysis. He
also persuasively describes how he does this. But in no systematic
application of his advice can I ever get the right results. In
simulation after simulation I have struggled to do everything he says,
every permutation of what he says, and I can never get the system to
offer up the results to which he says we should aspire (eg 30 points a
day on DJXX).



Please, Jack, you are trained in physics and engineering. You know that
if there is no mathematical solution that you should be able to use math
to prove this as well. Can you give an intution of how we might prove
your contention that "it is not possible to mathematically link the
applications?" Or could you clarify?


I have spent a great deal of time respectfully reading and thinking
about what you have written, but mostly what I feel now is frustration.
That is probably my own fault, a result of my own limited capacities,
but I thought I should express this since I am definitely not the only
one who has been enthusiastic about your posts and then hit a brick wall
once we tried to apply them in a rigorous way.


Sincerely,
James Fowler
http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~jhfowler
 
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