I rely on elliot theory, elliot waves are too complicated for me to understand.
As I understand the theory, an uptrend consists of 5 waves up, and 3 waves down on pull backs. A downtrend consists of 5 waves down, and 3 waves up on pull backs.
I can't speak for super_ego but I can say that I too have not been with ET very long, but I still am aware of lundy's bottom calls. They make for some very humorous reads.