Superbubble video: Grantham
- Thread starter KCalhoun
- Start date
Thanks for the video. On a micro level, using linear regression I follow his investment philosophy in trading.
Mr Grantham's wikipedia..
Grantham's investment philosophy can be summarised by his commonly used phrase "reversion to the mean." Essentially, he believes that all asset classes and markets will revert to mean historical levels from highs and lows. His firm seeks to understand historical changes in markets and predict results for seven years into the future. When there is deviation from historical means (averages), the firm may take an investment position based on anticipated return to the mean.
Mr Grantham's wikipedia..
Grantham's investment philosophy can be summarised by his commonly used phrase "reversion to the mean." Essentially, he believes that all asset classes and markets will revert to mean historical levels from highs and lows. His firm seeks to understand historical changes in markets and predict results for seven years into the future. When there is deviation from historical means (averages), the firm may take an investment position based on anticipated return to the mean.
A retest of the 2020 lows is possible.
In 2007 it seemed impossible the stock markets would ever retest the 2002 lows. But they did.
When markets go down, fear and volatility goes insane, the S&P will end up falling 200+ points a day.
When it makes those kinds of intraday moves it doesn't take long to drop from 4000 to 2000.
In 2007 it seemed impossible the stock markets would ever retest the 2002 lows. But they did.
When markets go down, fear and volatility goes insane, the S&P will end up falling 200+ points a day.
When it makes those kinds of intraday moves it doesn't take long to drop from 4000 to 2000.
He's been doing these TV interviews since last year on the 'super-bubble', looks like FOX is late to the party?
That said, there is a lot of truth to his points, HOWEVER, he is also infamous for making so many wrong-calls on corrections/crashes going back for decades.
That said, there is a lot of truth to his points, HOWEVER, he is also infamous for making so many wrong-calls on corrections/crashes going back for decades.
I first heard of him in Feb last year. From his Bloomberg interview. He said the end of the super bubble was near.
After that interview the big caps tech stocks kept going up, and kept pushing the indices to new highs.
but many tech stocks did top out and start to crash soon after his call.
eg. Cathy Woods Ark fund topped out in Feb last year and is down over 50% since.
I am currently reading the second book now in two months that's a bit old, and predicted the market was going to crash hard in 2017 and it was going to fall any day/hour now.
Humorous to read now, but they had their points/indicators for their reasonings that made sense.
Even if you are right, you may very well be off by over half a decade or so. There is a strong saying about money in-the-market makes more return than money out that is waiting for a favorable crash.
Anyhow, the 2022 tech-wrek is here... enjoy the ride because it's gonna get worse
Humorous to read now, but they had their points/indicators for their reasonings that made sense.
Even if you are right, you may very well be off by over half a decade or so. There is a strong saying about money in-the-market makes more return than money out that is waiting for a favorable crash.
Anyhow, the 2022 tech-wrek is here... enjoy the ride because it's gonna get worse
If you follow Grantham, Peter Schiff, ZeroHedge, and the other Perma bears you missed out on the greatest bull run in market history.
Even if the market gets cut in half from all time highs it will still be above where those morons started calling it a bubble.
Even if the market gets cut in half from all time highs it will still be above where those morons started calling it a bubble.
I wouldn’t throw Grantham in with those grifters, Peter Schit and ZeroHead but he’s definitely always early and the last push is where there is $$$ to be had.
The guy is a permabear. When is he not bearish? He is like most of the "value" investor who come on CNBC/Bloomberg, they only invest when the market has crashed.
The 2 things these people always say is the market is about to crash & one of these days European & Japanese stocks will outperform the US. The fact they are always wrong doesn't stop them from keep repeating it.
The 2 things these people always say is the market is about to crash & one of these days European & Japanese stocks will outperform the US. The fact they are always wrong doesn't stop them from keep repeating it.
Yes -- he is typically early. But now there is some evidence of a potential bigger market turn -- will he be correct? Who knows. Just gotta trust what you're seeing in the market action.