Super-Cycle Leaves No Economy Behind Before Davos Summit - Bloomberg

[abattia]

For only the third time since the Industrial Revolution, the world may be entering a long-term growth cycle that will lift all economies simultaneously, driving bond yields and commodity prices higher...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...nd-as-davos-shifts-to-growth-from-crisis.html

 

[kashirin]

Quote from abattia:

For only the third time since the Industrial Revolution, the world may be entering a long-term growth cycle that will lift all economies simultaneously, driving bond yields and commodity prices higher...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...nd-as-davos-shifts-to-growth-from-crisis.html

in 2007 it was shown something must be changed
our leaders decided more money must be printed

so now it's 2011 rich get richer and think it's all good life foreever again

I believe before 2012 they will get their lesson again

 

[bkveen3]

There will still be bull and bear markets, but I agree with the notion that we are heading into an extended world growth period. The article also agrees with my take on urbanization. 88% or Generation Y says it plans to live in an Urban setting. Considering Y is the largest generation, the next 20 years should be an interesting transformation. Buy city real estate now.

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from abattia:

For only the third time since the Industrial Revolution, the world may be entering a long-term growth cycle that will lift all economies simultaneously, driving bond yields and commodity prices higher...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...nd-as-davos-shifts-to-growth-from-crisis.html

Total HOGWASH. The world cannot grow economically faster than the net population. There will be "regional distortions"... Asia growing faster because their population is numerous, their average age is lower than the West, and they have little in the way of "long term social support obligations"... the West, converse.

Any perceived "Grand World Growth" will be mostly nothing but INFLATION!!!!!!!!!!

 

[bkveen3]

Rural to Urban migration in the third world is equivalent to population growth. These are people previously separated from the world economy that will now be adding value. Most of the growth will be centered around where these people are migrating. However, a substantial portion will be in the developed world as we produce heavy industry products that will be used to build their countries. That's on top of all the consumer products we will sell them as their average wealth increases.

You are set on the idea of the US collapsing no matter how little basis it has in fact. We are a huge and prosperous country with a great competitive spirit. Let's be a little more optimistic.

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from bkveen3:
----Rural to urban migration....
----These people....will now be adding value.
----we produce heavy industry products that will be used to build their countries.
----the consumer products we will sell them as their average wealth increases.
----Let's be a little more optimistic.

1) Most "rural" people tend to be less educated and only suited to blue-collar employment with a lot of wage deflation.
2) Those "heavy industry products" will be manufactured overseas from the US.
3) Those "consumer products" will be produced overseas also. The local population wants its own things, not someone else's from out-of-town.
4) Optimism is difficult during a deflationary environment. Everybody can't be a "financial professional".

 

[abattia]

American Market Preferred in Global Poll on New Confidence
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ed-in-global-poll-showing-new-confidence.html

 

[macroman]

look for next groundbreaking discovery to start in china.

 

[trade2live]

I read this article, and I thought "what are they smoking ?!"
The Standard Chartered Economist is the typical insider bull, if you are in Asia now , you are bullish. It takes outsiders like Chanos, who haven't been caught up in the bubble to look at this objectively .

Also explain to me how we are going to get a supercycle when we are already in bubble like territory?
If 1981- 1999 wasn't a supercycle , then I don't know what it was ! We had another humongous bull market from 2003 to 2007. Despite this according to these guys and this Bloomberg hype we should get a supercycle ... on top of a supercycle.

 

[Locutus]

Quote from trade2live:

I read this article, and I thought "what are they smoking ?!"
The Standard Chartered Economist is the typical insider bull, if you are in Asia now , you are bullish. It takes outsiders like Chanos, who haven't been caught up in the bubble to look at this objectively .

Also explain to me how we are going to get a supercycle when we are already in bubble like territory?
If 1981- 1999 wasn't a supercycle , then I don't know what it was ! We had another humongous bull market from 2003 to 2007. Despite this according to these guys and this Bloomberg hype we should get a supercycle ... on top of a supercycle.

Yes. That is why I am not too optimistic as well, but I'll cede that it's possible. I mean, history does not repeat itself contrary to popular belief. It's new and unpredictable every time. Maybe we'll have a 50-year supercycle. Maybe the superness will NEVER end...maybe maybe...Still it seems more like wishful thinking rather than looking at the fundies.

Edit: within the long-term emotional cycle it is possible we are at the skepticism phase of things (skepticism of the bull run that is, not of the possible coming correction).