Summer Vacation Is Over. Which Way Into Fed Day?
- Thread starter Pa(b)st Prime
- Start date
You can see on the attached 4 year chart of the SPX, the long term uptrend is still intact.
The 80 week MA has supported every retracement of every year in this 4 years old this bull market (on a weekly closing basis).
"But, there is almost always a re-test of that support area, so we may still have that re-test of the low's to look forward to between now and October.
On a side note:
"It easy to blame the sub prime problems for the market action in August 2007, but what excuse was there for the exact same retracement occurances in August 2004, April 2005, and June & July 2006?
It happens every year of a healthy bull market. This year it just happens to have higher volatility because the SEC eliminated the down tic shorting rule."
The 80 week MA has supported every retracement of every year in this 4 years old this bull market (on a weekly closing basis).
"But, there is almost always a re-test of that support area, so we may still have that re-test of the low's to look forward to between now and October.
On a side note:
"It easy to blame the sub prime problems for the market action in August 2007, but what excuse was there for the exact same retracement occurances in August 2004, April 2005, and June & July 2006?
It happens every year of a healthy bull market. This year it just happens to have higher volatility because the SEC eliminated the down tic shorting rule."
My broad map and calls -
Single biggest arrow in bulls' quiver, dwarfs everything, HF and IB performance/pay anxiety into year end. For HFs it's do or die, investors have had it with them - they're expensive losing or lagging propositions compared to the RE, insider stock, and other assets the wealthy invest in. Regardless of performance, a ton of them will quietly close. So it's the BOYZ that have their balls in a vice. Seems to me they have to juice the markets.
Rate hikes the world over are history. So is buyout mania. 50BP cut this month. Tight credit and falling demand for credit (two very different things) are the biggest short term threats to US economy - not silly inflation or dollar worries. Housing and then commercial RE shakeout is the dominant story for remainder of the decade.
Look for some kind of huge inter industry announcement revamping standards for securitizations to restore confidence. Expecting stability to return by October.
Vix, yen, financials and market reaction to bad news flows are the tells. Shun small caps, get worldwide exposure - US markets to underperform.
Good time for careful traders to be patient, sometimes for days, and then pile onto the strong daily moves when they emerge. Remember retail guys with even small gains or small losses are outperforming a lot of the big guys - how often does that happen?.
Single biggest arrow in bulls' quiver, dwarfs everything, HF and IB performance/pay anxiety into year end. For HFs it's do or die, investors have had it with them - they're expensive losing or lagging propositions compared to the RE, insider stock, and other assets the wealthy invest in. Regardless of performance, a ton of them will quietly close. So it's the BOYZ that have their balls in a vice. Seems to me they have to juice the markets.
Rate hikes the world over are history. So is buyout mania. 50BP cut this month. Tight credit and falling demand for credit (two very different things) are the biggest short term threats to US economy - not silly inflation or dollar worries. Housing and then commercial RE shakeout is the dominant story for remainder of the decade.
Look for some kind of huge inter industry announcement revamping standards for securitizations to restore confidence. Expecting stability to return by October.
Vix, yen, financials and market reaction to bad news flows are the tells. Shun small caps, get worldwide exposure - US markets to underperform.
Good time for careful traders to be patient, sometimes for days, and then pile onto the strong daily moves when they emerge. Remember retail guys with even small gains or small losses are outperforming a lot of the big guys - how often does that happen?.
Very, very nice post '87.
Quote from Trader5287:
My broad map and calls -
Single biggest arrow in bulls' quiver, dwarfs everything, HF and IB performance/pay anxiety into year end. For HFs it's do or die, investors have had it with them - they're expensive losing or lagging propositions compared to the RE, insider stock, and other assets the wealthy invest in. Regardless of performance, a ton of them will quietly close. So it's the BOYZ that have their balls in a vice. Seems to me they have to juice the markets.
Rate hikes the world over are history. So is buyout mania. 50BP cut this month. Tight credit and falling demand for credit (two very different things) are the biggest short term threats to US economy - not silly inflation or dollar worries. Housing and then commercial RE shakeout is the dominant story for remainder of the decade.
Look for some kind of huge inter industry announcement revamping standards for securitizations to restore confidence. Expecting stability to return by October.
Vix, yen, financials and market reaction to bad news flows are the tells. Shun small caps, get worldwide exposure - US markets to underperform.
Good time for careful traders to be patient, sometimes for days, and then pile onto the strong daily moves when they emerge. Remember retail guys with even small gains or small losses are outperforming a lot of the big guys - how often does that happen?.
OK, OK, I'll put you on my top ten.
As for a higher target for inflation, I'm sure the Admin is working on wringing that out of him as I write this. Next year is an election year, after all. Around here, you can tell 'cause the roads get paved. In Fedland, it's usually either cause for cutting rates, or at least holding off on a rise until after the election. Greenspan violated that rule in 2000 and 2004, though. Which might be why he's not still there, now that I think of it.