When it starts throwing fits (i.e. 1/23 outside reversal, etc...) you're getting close but picking the peak is an act of futility.
Just know where the trend system guys put their stops, figure 3-4 atr's under the contract high and try to front run them. The floor is going to have a field day when it eventually does snowball.
As copied from "sugar anyone"
Erlewine's comments are as good as any I could come up with. I've been watching closely but no more than 2 lower closes for a long time ; )