That was quite a memorable day (January 21 or whatever):
http://www.break.com/usercontent/2008/1/Stock-Futures-Trader-losses-it-all-and-flips-out-438981.html
Sugar Explosion
- Thread starter Shagi
- Start date
http://www.break.com/usercontent/2008/1/Stock-Futures-Trader-losses-it-all-and-flips-out-438981.html
Quote from makloda:
That was quite a memorable day (January 21 or whatever):
http://www.break.com/usercontent/2008/1/Stock-Futures-Trader-losses-it-all-and-flips-out-438981.html
...but I was just following Jim Cramer's advice and dollar cost averaging down in the /es futures....how could things have turned out so wrong for me?
Luckily, I had my Taco Bell asst. managerial job to fall back upon once I realized that I couldn't make it as a discretionary, high-frequency, microscalping, over-leveraged, Gann-following futures trader.
Bravetom, no offense, but I think you might need to start doing your own homework if you're going to have any longevity as a trader. You popped up out of seemingly nowhere and have been throwing money at anything that moves. Just be careful, you don't want to blow your account in the first few months of trade.
As for the sugar, over the past three months or so, the intermittent rallies have been averaging 4-5 trading days in length once there's been a higher close off of relative lows when accompanied by a larger daily range than the previous day. December 3rd, +/- a day might be either 1) a good place to add to longs on a pullback, or 2) short. Of course this depends on the extent of this rally's follow-through into the beginning of next week.
Managed money increased sb short positions last week while decreasing long exposure. Currently holding roughly 3:1 contracts long/short.
Small traders increased long positions, while decreasing shorts. Currently holding roughly 2:1 contracts long/short
Producers increased both short and long positions, giving more favoritism to the short side. Currently holding roughly 1:2 contracts long/short.
Swap dealers (most of which are long-only index funds) increased longs (no shock here), decreased shorts and increased spread positions as of last week. Currently holding roughly 1.1:1 contracts long/short.
You've got to know the facts.
Sugar rally has just started - commercial postions do not necessarily reflect what they know. That means given any moment in time reason whay they sell short is simply to cover production costs it does not mean its the top.
Now look at the London white sugar contract chart - its SB11 but the difference with ICE SB11 is strength. It means one thing - rally to the moon.
Now look at the London white sugar contract chart - its SB11 but the difference with ICE SB11 is strength. It means one thing - rally to the moon.
I trade SB, and I agree with your comment. Shagi could well be correct, but I would want to see a daily close above 2330 on SBEH0. A close above 2330 gets 2397 as a target. A close above 2397 and the contract high may be in order. However, a failure to close above 2330 and I think a test of 1900 is in the cards.