Sugar - COT Analysis

Ok looking at the charts, by the way i used to reckon it, sugar should soon resume it's bear market. But i would have said the same thing in January 2016 when shorts were shorter than during the last significant rally back in November 2013. The bear did not resume much after January 2016, defying what was a significant short position.

But what i noticed about these charts, different from anything i got from Larry Williams, is that in a trend (let's use bear trend as example), if the shorts are shorter at the top of the last significant rally, and the price of the current rally is as low or lower than the last rally, the bear should soon resume. If this is a new bull trend, it would seem you'd at least get a significant retreat soon.
 
I simple have gotten use to watching markets come and go, I am determined not to interfere or over ride the automation, never works out to me favor anyway, LOL, took profit on half of original position and add-ons, few others broke even, it might take away all my longs and it might not, am hedged so even if future longs get stopped out at breakeven, make something on the options for part of the way. You stay in the game long enough, you just accept what will be will be of the methods you made. I think I am finally happy with my Long Term trading method after many years, so that usually spells trouble, LOL.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
I don't see how the blue commercial interest line has any more ("predictive") value than price itself. If you used it for timing purposes, consider how many times you would have gotten it wrong just on this very chart alone, irrespective of whether you used it as a contrarian or positive indicator.
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I think the theory goes, that when the COT readings are at extremes it means there is very little juice left in the lemon to squeeze out and therefore a reversal is pretty imminent.
 
Codd said:
I think the theory goes, that when the COT readings are at extremes it means there is very little juice left in the lemon to squeeze out and therefore a reversal is pretty imminent.
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Considering the delay in COT reporting and presumably the need for the net commercials line to turn before acting on it, I personally don't see how it adds meaningful value. Consider how much price has already turned in real time by the time all this has happened. And what is an "extreme" in the line? What's the cut-off point for comparative purposes? Not to mention that if Larry Williams endorses something, well, let's just say that you would do well to add a fair amount of salt for seasoning.

But if you're somehow making money with it, then that's all that matters.
 
Your analysis is just as good as anyone else. Don't waste time looking for approvement, nobody knows for sure what sugar - or what else for that matter - will do next. Now that the index is at zero for the commercials, WAIT for the Specs' net positions to start diving , then follow them.

Codd said:
HI everyone,

I'm pretty new here but browse pretty often.

I'm wondering if any of you use the COT report to look for potential trades and if so do you find it useful?

Looking at the COT for sugar, (if the COT theory is correct), isn't this due a massive selloff?

What are your thoughts?
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Handle123 said:
I don't use COT at all nor any fundamentals, but have been using same basic long term concepts last twenty odd years, have last handful of years taken more advanced stage of add more entries and I both hedge on entries but added hedge open profits/Credit Call Spreads like I done today. I can't consider going short till above 29.00, am 100% Contrarian, will continue to buy/sell extremes trying to find the low/high and add on when most have said trend has changed.

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If Oct Sugar get to approx. 18.85, exit the Call Credit spreads/Long Put(exited today Short Put when Sugar hit 20.10) then add to buying Oct Sugar futures and Put Debit hedge.

I am glad so many long term traders in the Ag group and using various methods, it would be so boring if we all did same things.
 
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