Sugar - COT Analysis
- Thread starter Codd
- Start date
No theory will ever be correct.
What makes you think it's time for a correction?
I tried to spot divergences btw COT & Price but didn't test it enough.
Plus there are 2 kinds of divergence (Positive & Negative ones).
Or simply a confirmation? One really has to make it clear.
You can Download COT datas as well as EOD Data.
Write down a model. Test & see.
I Personally don't have the pocket deep enough,
For implementing a daily, weekly strategy.
So I didn't dive deeply into COT.
I don't use COT at all nor any fundamentals, but have been using same basic long term concepts last twenty odd years, have last handful of years taken more advanced stage of add more entries and I both hedge on entries but added hedge open profits/Credit Call Spreads like I done today. I can't consider going short till above 29.00, am 100% Contrarian, will continue to buy/sell extremes trying to find the low/high and add on when most have said trend has changed.
Every year at the end of July, I think there is a good probability of making a profit by selling the Sugar #11.
At least, that worked in the past. The only time that I would not follow stats and probabilities for non financial Futures, is when "fundamentals are surging" in the opposite way (hurricane, big surge in the COT Index or Commercials).
At least, that worked in the past. The only time that I would not follow stats and probabilities for non financial Futures, is when "fundamentals are surging" in the opposite way (hurricane, big surge in the COT Index or Commercials).
Ok, so here's the chart with the COT data.
Massive net shorts in the commercial positions in the past have indicated a top was near. Currently these are at record levels.
Open interest is high too.
In the overall percentage terms of open interest commercials are again at record levels and reducing their longs. I'm gonna wait until Friday for the latest COT but I can't see this continuing for much longer...
What are your thoughts all?
Massive net shorts in the commercial positions in the past have indicated a top was near. Currently these are at record levels.
Open interest is high too.
In the overall percentage terms of open interest commercials are again at record levels and reducing their longs. I'm gonna wait until Friday for the latest COT but I can't see this continuing for much longer...
What are your thoughts all?
The commitmentsoftraders.org by Stephen E. Briese, will probably have your chart.
I use Tradestation and they provide the COT for the 3 categories as an indicator. I can post a copy of a chart, but frankly that will not help. It is just another indicator.
I compute and use the COT Index, as described by Larry Williams.
I use Tradestation and they provide the COT for the 3 categories as an indicator. I can post a copy of a chart, but frankly that will not help. It is just another indicator.
I compute and use the COT Index, as described by Larry Williams.
The same Dude who said "The relatively longer plantation cycle, combined with restrictive trade practices, has in the past been the catalyst for the volatility in sugar prices."
