Sucker's rally here

I actually think we get a cut, only 25 bps though. It is a token from Ben, who isn't really keen on saving stupid people and long only investors. He is going to do it to save face and avoid being "the guy" who killed the market.

Unfortunately, the 25 bps is less than what the market seems to have priced in, and will still lead to a further erosion.

Stop fighting the inevitable, let the market work out the imbalance by itself, and if people are dumb enough to not adjust portfolio risks from time to time (the stock trad3r mentality), then they get what they deserve in the end.


"Capital must protect itself in every way... Debts must be collected and loans and mortgages foreclosed as soon as possible. When through a process of law the common people have lost their homes, they will be more tractable and more easily governed by the strong arm of the law applied by the central power of leading financiers. People without homes will not quarrel with their leaders. This is well known among our principle men now engaged in forming an imperialism of capitalism to govern the world. By dividing the people we can get them to expend their energies in fighting over questions of no importance to us except as teachers of the common herd."
-JP Morgan


The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible. -Bernard Baruch
 
Well, as of now, the only hope of the bears appears to be that either

a) no rate cut & the market tanks, or
b) rate cut of .25 and the market is disappointed.

Given all the bearish posts around here, the likelihood of either scenario happening is vanishingly small. I don't know what Ben is going to do, but with all & sundry fighting the tape, I don't think it matters either.
For all you guys claim to love a free market, it never seems to occur to any of you that Ben just might be irrelevant. Wotta revoltin' development that would be, eh?
 
Quote from Comanche:

I actually think we get a cut, only 25 bps though. It is a token from Ben, who isn't really keen on saving stupid people and long only investors. He is going to do it to save face and avoid being "the guy" who killed the market.
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unfortunately after his speech and few other indirect hints I start to change my opinion and think that 25bps is coming unless we get very strong data on Friday. I've already taken losses on ff futures.
 
This was not a sucker's rally. If you looked at sentiment on August 16, you would see that most of the indications were at historical extremes. This rally is the working off of those extremes. At this point, I would not fight the tape until you see a confirmation that prices are heading lower. I think this short squeeze still has some fuel. Before it's all said and done, the nqu07 could be at new highs for the year. Right now the indices are overbought and could pull back, but as soon as the shorts get committed again, I could see the longs squeeze the shorts to new highs. The second thing is we're in the strong year of the election cycle and in the fall/winter trading zone. Besides a well needed pullback and the negative seasonality of september, I don't see a good argument for the bears for this period of the year. Except maybe a short negative run from mid september to mid october, the best opportunity is to look for some good leaders to buy in broker/dealers, technology, retail, and consumer staples.
 
Quote from RiceRocket:

This was not a sucker's rally. If you looked at sentiment on August 16, you would see that most of the indications were at historical extremes. This rally is the working off of those extremes. At this point, I would not fight the tape until you see a confirmation that prices are heading lower. I think this short squeeze still has some fuel. Before it's all said and done, the nqu07 could be at new highs for the year. Right now the indices are overbought and could pull back, but as soon as the shorts get committed again, I could see the longs squeeze the shorts to new highs. The second thing is we're in the strong year of the election cycle and in the fall/winter trading zone. Besides a well needed pullback and the negative seasonality of september, I don't see a good argument for the bears for this period of the year. Except maybe a short negative run from mid september to mid october, the best opportunity is to look for some good leaders to buy in broker/dealers, technology, retail, and consumer staples.
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How about a slowing economy to the point the Fed has to cut rates? Retest recent lows to confirm/find bottom?

I think anyone calling this market either way right now is kidding themselves. I was as bullish as you could be until about a week ago (didn't think that cuts were needed and really still don't...but). We are going to have to see how the jobs picture develops and the Beige Book, etc...

I think a slowdown would be a good thing but a slowdown with Fed easing is going to eventually just lead to heavier rate hikes in the future. Let the economy moderate, the overleveraged idiots take their medicine and those that have capital invest it wisely.

The last thing we need now are securities being propped up through governmental intervention, 5.25% is not that tight and if there's any cutting it's only going to be .25bps. If you can't grow your business and make money with a 5% funds rate, you deserve to be out of business and starved of capital.

Good Luck!
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

by the time of the fed meeintg the dow will be above 14000 so it wont matter if he cuts or not
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Please explain what you mean.

If - and I believe its a big if - the Dow reaches 14000 again by the time of the rate decision and the FED decides to leave rates unchanged you can see those gains disappearing considerably more quickly than they were made; which is very significant bearing in mind the decision is about 2 weeks away.

abc1
 
Quote from abc1:

Please explain what you mean.

If - and I believe its a big if - the Dow reaches 14000 again by the time of the rate decision and the FED decides to leave rates unchanged you can see those gains disappearing considerably more quickly than they were made; which is very significant bearing in mind the decision is about 2 weeks away.

abc1
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don't pay attention to this idiot
 
Quote from Algorithm:

I think anyone calling this market either way right now is kidding themselves.
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Couldn't agree more.

Two weeks until FED decision in these market conditions should be enough reason for anyone to exercise considerable caution.

I believe today's relatively narrow range on the Dow emphasises this too, in addition to the continued NASDAQ "safe harbour" plays.

abc1
 
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