success rate trading S&p's

silk · May 13, 2003

For those of you who daytrade the s&p's and nas100 futures, what percentage of your trading days are up days?? Is it possible to make money 4 out of 5 days as it is in stocks?

I know that for stock daytraders, a percentage of 70-80% success is very possible. I was somewhere in the high 70's last year trading stocks.

I'm curious if the same edge is possible trading strictly stock futures on a daily basis. I've never given it a try, but i'm not confident i could do much better than 55%.

Foz · May 13, 2003

Ha! If you are making money 4 out of 5 days in stocks (and your losing days aren't 4x your winning days) then stick with stocks and just trade larger as your account grows. Does a successful surgeon switch to dentistry even through it is possible to be a successful dentist? Nope.

trader99 · May 13, 2003

Quote from Foz:

Ha! If you are making money 4 out of 5 days in stocks (and your losing days aren't 4x your winning days) then stick with stocks and just trade larger as your account grows. Does a successful surgeon switch to dentistry even through it is possible to be a successful dentist? Nope.

Foz!

haha! That's funny. But a very apt analogy. Stick with what you know best and MASTER it. TRULY master it. The sky is the limit in trading stocks, futures, bonds, commodities, fx, options. It doesn't matter what you trade. But be damn good at it!

Given that stmt, I trade both futures and stocks. Pretty good combo actually. And I'm looking to trade other instrumetns as well, but not b/c I think there's more money to be made. It's just for market diversification.

I would say trading is a skill set. If you learn that skill set you can trade ANY instrument. Though you might have to do some adjusting to the pace of futures(faster) and leverage. But other than that, the same good trading habits carry over and works. So, in the end, it doesn't matter what you trade. People can make millions trading stocks. People can make millions trading futures. People probably make millions trading horses too. Hopefully, we here on ET will be one of those elite few. hehe.

good luck!

downtickboy · May 14, 2003

Making money 70-80% of the days trading futures is possible. I know a few people that run that high. You might want to get in contact with some of the prop firms out in Chicago. I am sure some of them have top traders there who are consistent like you are seeking. However currently I don't know anyone trading futures who pulled down what you did last year but then again I don't know anyone who traded the proportion size that you did either. The beauty though of futures is that IF you figure out a strategy that works well, you can scale it up rather easily without worrying about liquidity requirements.

spreadem · May 14, 2003

quote from downtickboy :

The beauty though of futures is that IF you figure out a strategy that works well, you can scale it up rather easily without worrying about liquidity requirements.

That's why I trade ES and NQ, knowing that once I get the method down ... the sky is the limit.

candletrader · May 14, 2003

Number of winning days relative to losing days is unimportant on its own... you gotta factor in size of winning days relative to losing days too...

trader99 · May 14, 2003

Quote from candletrader:

Number of winning days relative to losing days is unimportant on its own... you gotta factor in size of winning days relative to losing days too...

candle,

u got it! You can have winner % days as high as 99% but if each and EVERY single winning days you have you only win $10. And each of the 1% losing days you lose $5000 each then obviously you can still be very negative!

traderkay · May 14, 2003

there's people winning almost everyday in in es/nq/ym. but they all have had tons of experience ("screen time"). and they all are discretionary traders. i dont know of any system traders who almost never have a losing day. maybe wally! j/k

hmap1 · May 14, 2003

I trade ES mechanically and it may not be the best results, but my winning percentage is about 55% and avg winner is $300 while avg loser is $150 per contract. I just let it run on it's own and walk away from it. It grows consistently over time. As far as seeing systems that never lose money, they do exist. They tend to lose money only when network issues occur. The one I am familiar with has made money everyday for the past 32 trading days.

wally_ · May 15, 2003

Quote from traderkay:

i dont know of any system traders who almost never have a losing day. maybe wally! j/k

No, I do have losing days. That's part of the system game. You play the system and take what you get or you try to make money every day. These are two different things. It is simpler for me to play the system game, it just lets me focus better and take emotions out of the game as much as possible. But I do lose on some days, sometimes even pretty badly.