Most options sellers and only sellers can make money year after year after year are neutral, or slightly bearish/bullish.
This is one way to do it, another way is to be trend followers.
In both cases you never try to pick up bottoms or tops, you let them pick themselves and you do your best to leave your ego/opinion out of the door before placing trades that are based on probabilities.
In both cases money management is critical.
There 100 ways to make money and 1000 to lose it. One way is not better than another per se, it depends on many things. That's why the people who last in this biz are so few in numbers.
Most traders lack the necessary discipline and skills to make money in both up and down markets and have a gambler mentality. This year is a lesson for all. Yesterdayâs winners are todayâs losers.
For instance no one cares whatever or not a " Butterfly spread " widens toward expiration. Most traders are just in for the thrill and want to make quick money.
When you have one "lucky trader" (someone who does make a killing) there is going to be a lot of buzz and excitement and more traders will attempt to win the lottery.
And it does not matter how many time you show them or tell them, most traders just want to lose money...and they will.
I have been trading for 3 years, my first year does not show but it was + 20%. The first thing that I learned was how not to destroy my account, if you can do that , it is a matter of time, the money will come eventually.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2233872#post2233872