Subtleties of JH method
- Thread starter SnakeEYE
- Start date
Finally Jack, you are getting what these trolls are all about. Shift the burden of proof onto them, and they will go away.
I feel sorry for Hershey.
He enthusiastically tried to share his discoveries about the markets, spent a lot of time and energy to fight his denigrators (most of them morons), and now because he still feels the compulsion to express his point, but needing to avoid confrontations and aggravation, he writes then erases everything he writes.
Lesson to be learned: don't engage morons! It's hazardous to your well being.
Funny , thread is only few posts as JH writes in disappearing
ink now.
20 minute Window of opportunity, then..... vanishing posts.
ink now.
20 minute Window of opportunity, then..... vanishing posts.
Couldn`t catch what Jack had to say either.But i got a few lines for you,Jack!
Investors should realize that normal market returns are extreme. Individuals that continue to believe in the Gaussian (bell-shaped) distribution, or ignore empirical results will continue to be surprised by future events. Roughly 40% of all yearly returns in US stocks are greater than 10% or less than -10%. Bear markets are common, and markets can and do decline from 50-100%.
Financial market return distributions are similar to fractal systems that follow a power law distribution (which is useful in describing events like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions). Below is a chart from the book The Failure of Risk Management by Hubbard that illustrates the inability of the Gaussian models to account for large outlier moves in financial markets. In a normal distribution world a 5% decline in the Dow in a single trading day should not have happened in the past 100 years. In reality, it has happened nearly 100 times.
Couldn`t attach the chart,but you can find it here:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/62240252/Cambria-Quantitative-Research-Monthly-August-2011
Investors should realize that normal market returns are extreme. Individuals that continue to believe in the Gaussian (bell-shaped) distribution, or ignore empirical results will continue to be surprised by future events. Roughly 40% of all yearly returns in US stocks are greater than 10% or less than -10%. Bear markets are common, and markets can and do decline from 50-100%.
Financial market return distributions are similar to fractal systems that follow a power law distribution (which is useful in describing events like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions). Below is a chart from the book The Failure of Risk Management by Hubbard that illustrates the inability of the Gaussian models to account for large outlier moves in financial markets. In a normal distribution world a 5% decline in the Dow in a single trading day should not have happened in the past 100 years. In reality, it has happened nearly 100 times.
Couldn`t attach the chart,but you can find it here:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/62240252/Cambria-Quantitative-Research-Monthly-August-2011
