Stupid Stupid Stupid!!!!!
- Thread starter TheDr.
- Start date
Seems you have to do Jack's stuff over again.Quote from Choad:
"Plan your trade and plan to trade"
No, that's not right...
"Plan your trade and trade in your pan"
No wait, I'll get it...
"Plain traders trade planes"
Wait, I know...
"Plains traders plan properly"
Darn...
I think that the above is extremely wise advice. I would even take it a few steps further...
Price doesn't care about GDP, what the fed will or won't do, or that some analyst has downgraded a stock. One cannot understand price movement by thinking of it in terms of the behavior of an individual or even a small group.
It is as Mandelbrot surmises in The (Mis)Behavior of Markets (2004):
"In a market there is... a spontaneous internal life... a special dynamic -- greater than, and different from, the sum of its parts...
...in substantial part, prices are determined by endogenous effects peculiar to the inner workings of the markets themselves."
Even Bachelier, the father of modern finance, in his Theory of Speculation (1926) noted:
"events often bear no apparent relation to price variation."
The media make the news fit the movement. If the Dow rises they look for positive news items to explain it, if it falls they look for negative items to excuse it. How can anyone prove otherwise? Especially when all their smart explanations are given after the fact.
The financial media are set up to herd people into corrals of opinion, to mislead them as to the true nature of price movement. That is their job!
In Chaos (pg. 29) Gleick notes that when âfaced with irregularityâ most people âlook for explanations outside the system.â
This is exactly what has happened with the stock market, but these explanations are now dogma rather than theory.
I know it probably sounds like I'm on a soapbox here... forgive me, it IS something I feel very strongly about...
Rgds,
E. Allon
There were enough swings in the spx to make money on friday, long or short.
Quote from TheDr.:
That's how I feel today.....I got caught trying to go short @ the open and the obvious happened...I feel like an ass!!...I guess that stupid GDP report suckered me in even though that kind of stuff is BS to me I bought into it..Then on top of that, I presumptuously felt that the 10am New Home Sales could drop us lower even though the high was not "officially in"(and I f'n knew that) Damnit!!......totally don't know why or what the HELL I was thinking.... impatient, undisciplined, and careless. Plus I get stopped out for 3pts a full point over my risk!!!
Do you ever get to the point when you know what to do and you do it..Without out thinking yourself?.....
I have these spells where I get so Damn cocky and complacent.... I start catching the exact H/L and then I want conduct personal seminars...lol.....I admire guys like Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, Lance Armstrong, or a Bill Belichick. Those kind of guys ALWAYS maintain that mental Edge...They never get too cocky or dance in the end zone...There very serious, disciplined guys...amateurs make wild predictions that are irrelevant to the moment in time....
There's no need for emotion when you know!!....Because intuition can be articulated and cultivated into a very tangible element in trading IMO.....Like I said I m just venting and I'll get over it but, I' just wish I could stop doing Stupid S*#t!!....But yeah whatever, I'll just go on another winning streak and then forget about it until of course I do something else stupid....LOL...I laugh but it's not funny.
you know what? the bottom line is - this is not an easy market to trade. The indexes have whipsawed a lot in recent months - there are plenty of cross-currents. what you described as a reason for the trade makes sense -- so frankly I wouldn't even give it a second thought. You acted in accordance with your instincts. This time it didn't work out, next time it might.
BUT if you beat yourself up TOO MUCH over it- then next time you will be trading off this time.
besides it's always good to be kicked in the arse from time to time-- it keeps one humble... and very aware of the market's power to giveth and taketh away!
iceman1
just found this site and thot i'd post my 2 cents.
my advice is to trade setups no matter which way the overall mkt is moving. this is not to say the overall mkt direction is not important, rather that focusing on the best setups is the way to go.
don't trade on news or what u think might happen, just trade setups.
i personally had one of my best days ever this past friday. this included both long and short positions.
my advice is to trade setups no matter which way the overall mkt is moving. this is not to say the overall mkt direction is not important, rather that focusing on the best setups is the way to go.
don't trade on news or what u think might happen, just trade setups.
i personally had one of my best days ever this past friday. this included both long and short positions.
Good point. There were some other indicators as well suggesting some underlying strength in the market over the past week despite the sell-off the Friday before.
Yeah, right, right.Quote from Choad:
"Plan your trade and plan to trade"
No, that's not right...
"Plan your trade and trade in your pan"
No wait, I'll get it...
"Plain traders trade planes"
Wait, I know...
"Plains traders plan properly"
Darn...
Let me have another go!
You flailed in the pan; you just didn't make it pan out without a flail.
this is a great point. I did something similar to the original poster. After economic news, i got out of QQQQ and SPY (missed out on 2% there) but also wisely exited my RE short positions...but the RE didnt move very much really.
I tried to catch a quick scalp which i was stopped out one etc...
had a day in the red.
I agree with "trading setups" and with the poster who mentioned "investing". now i hate "buy and hold" but the longer holds, with more mechanical entries and stops tend to be more profitable.