Study: the Euro has fallen 6 weeks in a row. Here's what happens next

[Troy Bombardia]

The EURUSD has fallen 6 weeks in a row (this week may or may not be week 7)

Either way, this is a short-medium term bearish sign for the Euro. Historically, this meant that the Euro faced some more downside.

 

[Handle123]

I am long term long this market and bought more near close of Tuesday, actually thought it close lower but signal said to buy, I been long since early 2017 and still expecting US Dollar to drop.

 

[FX_Hedge]

We keep selling into all EURUSD rallies since going USD long early February. The fundamentals remain horrid for the EU region and thus the Euro as compared to the US. The US is raising rates and has obvious strength in economy as compared to EU region. When I saw Ray Dalio loading up against the EU region I just smiled.

 

[FX_Hedge]

I would not be surprised to see the EURUSD sub 1.1400 level by mid Summer.

 

[clacy]

We keep selling into all EURUSD rallies since going USD long early February. The fundamentals remain horrid for the EU region and thus the Euro as compared to the US. The US is raising rates and has obvious strength in economy as compared to EU region. When I saw Ray Dalio loading up against the EU region I just smiled.

I am not a currency guy, but the EU looks like a mess to me as well.

Essentially this union is holding an economic civil war between quasi-sovereign nations. The EU could rip apart at the seems at any time. I tend to think the likelihood of he EU falling apart in the next 20 years is greater than the odds for staying together.

 

[Mifar]

There is no surprise in this. We all know that every currency faces some fall in their life. I hope no one has lost much money through this process. My advise for young trraders is that don't trade when your not sure about any currency. Don't rush things.

 

[Kate_Wal108]

There is no surprise in this. We all know that every currency faces some fall in their life. I hope no one has lost much money through this process. My advise for young trraders is that don't trade when your not sure about any currency. Don't rush things.

Well said. Without proper knowledge and understanding we should not invest in a currency pair(or any other trading instrument). Also it'd be better not to trade when unsure of which direction the market is headed towards.

 

[tomorton]

Yes, the EUR is a currency with a weak economic base, getting weaker if trade with the UK loses out to increased "friction". But the EUR makes up I believe over 50% of the USD index, so is EUR/USD really the best way to short the EUR?

 

[tomorton]

I like the series of threads started by Troy Bombardia because I do believe there are constants of behaviour in the market which, although they are never going to be 100% dependable, we must agree on.

So much of trader forum posts are about what we disagree on. All this philosophical adversarial posting does cover important points but they have skipped over the foundation to get to the detail. We have to have a consensus of what the market does, or what it does most of the time, before we can disagree on how to identify what its doing.

So when Troy posts up something that says, "When price does X and Y, then 80% of the time Z follows", this sort of thing is not simplistic, it is vital. We have to know where we are before we can begin the journey to a better place.