Study: the Euro crashed yesterday. Bearish for Euro and bullish for USD

[Troy Bombardia]

The Euro crashed yesterday on the ECB’s meeting. This is the worst 1 day crash since June 2016 (Brexit).

This is historically a bearish sign for the EUro and bullish for the USD. The selling usually continues for another few weeks/months.

https://bullmarkets.co/study-euro-crash/

 

[sle]

Dude, calling it a “study” is a misnomer. What is the statistical significance of your results?

PS. That applies to your other posts too

 

[ElectricSavant]

I don't understand? The statistical significance is the we can expect the EUR/USD pair to fall...get short! I find Troys work helpful and Thank You Troy.

ES

Dude, calling it a “study” is a misnomer. What is the statistical significance of your results?

PS. That applies to your other posts too

 

[sle]

I don't understand?

He makes a prediction using a historical data sample, ie future returns conditional on some events. If that event is rare (in this case he has 10 observations), the value of that prediction is very small. In real life, that value becomes negative because of the transaction costs.

 

[clacy]

He makes a prediction using a historical data sample, ie future returns conditional on some events. If that event is rare (in this case he has 10 observations), the value of that prediction is very small. In real life, that value becomes negative because of the transaction costs.

The EU is falling apart. Troy will likely be proven correct here.

 

[sle]

The EU is falling apart. Troy will likely be proven correct here.

He is not making any sort of macro argument, he’s simply making up a pseudo-quant model based on faulty statistics. It does not matter if he will be right in this particular instance.

PS. Do you really think EU is going to fall apart in the next 3 months? Yesterday’s move is almost certainly driven by rates

 

[Handle123]

One day crash? I checked my charts using weeklies, and I noticed automation bought more of it.

Volume on dailies don't look much interest to go down further.

 

[pipeguy]

The Euro crashed yesterday on the ECB’s meeting. This is the worst 1 day crash since June 2016 (Brexit).

This is historically a bearish sign for the EUro and bullish for the USD. The selling usually continues for another few weeks/months.

https://bullmarkets.co/study-euro-crash/

I would take a contrarian view on that, euro made another big step towards tightening, the news came one week before ECB meeting, 1Q was not so good for EU economy, but still, shift in QE. This is big news for Euro, not considering rate hike expectations. With some economic reading accelerating, ECB can easily shift back to summer rate hike expectations.