Study: financial conditions are still too easy for the equities bull market to end

T

Troy Bombardia

Trying to predict exactly at what level of interest rates the economic expansion and equities bull market will end is futile. The honest answer is "nobody knows".

But more important than interest rates are financial conditions. And despite the Fed's multiple rate hikes, financial conditions are still extremely easy. Historically, financial conditions need to be much tighter for a bear market and economic recession to begin

https://bullmarkets.co/study-financial-conditions-still-too-easy/
 
I don't buy it.

The same people who were saying that falling rates were bolstering the stock market are now saying rising rates aren't a threat to it, it just doesn't smell right. If the market fell 5000 points and people looked back ... I don't think anyone would be surprised that rising rates were the cause.
 
eves_banished_children said:
I don't buy it.

The same people who were saying that falling rates were bolstering the stock market are now saying rising rates aren't a threat to it, it just doesn't smell right. If the market fell 5000 points and people looked back ... I don't think anyone would be surprised that rising rates were the cause.
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Rising rates usually are a sign of strong economy, strong earnings. With the positive effect of strong earnings being greater than the negs of rising rates (at least in the early stage of rate rise), the markets tolerate rates "up to a point", then they say "that's too much". Obviously we're not there yet.
 
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Troy Bombardia said:
Trying to predict exactly at what level of interest rates the economic expansion and equities bull market will end is futile. The honest answer is "nobody knows".

But more important than interest rates are financial conditions. And despite the Fed's multiple rate hikes, financial conditions are still extremely easy. Historically, financial conditions need to be much tighter for a bear market and economic recession to begin

https://bullmarkets.co/study-financial-conditions-still-too-easy/
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Error Correction Founder, is that you?

Oh, ECF, where art thou?
 
truetype said:
Wonder if that's an all-time ET record?
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(1). highest posts. .... quite likely

(2). Politics forum is his home. Posts are vile, bile, depressing, asinine, hovine, bovine

(3). Easily wins Nobel Prize for thin-skinned. Just look at his Ignore List.

(4). Dangerous to tangle with him/her when he makes sorties into Trading forums, drops 4-letter bombs and on first opposition, shoots to the Ignore List. Result is expulsion for the unfortunate person who tangles with this piece of work.

Avoid at all costs. Internship participants, pls pay attention. Have a nice day
 
Troy Bombardia said:
Trying to predict exactly at what level of interest rates the economic expansion and equities bull market will end is futile. The honest answer is "nobody knows".

But more important than interest rates are financial conditions. And despite the Fed's multiple rate hikes, financial conditions are still extremely easy. Historically, financial conditions need to be much tighter for a bear market and economic recession to begin

https://bullmarkets.co/study-financial-conditions-still-too-easy/
More...





Financial conditions at the top of a bull market paint a rosy picture of the economy

Financial conditions at the bottom of a Bear market paint a horrible picture of the economy

Enter S on the first, L on the latter just as Warren Buffet preaches
 
Troy Bombardia said:
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Historically, financial conditions need to be much tighter for a bear market and economic recession to begin

https://bullmarkets.co/study-financial-conditions-still-too-easy/
More...

Incorrect Sir. The Bear likes to catch the masses by surprise. So if most see big cracks in the economy, the grizzly would have lost the element of surprise. His initial attack arrives in an atmosphere of bliss, happiness, Lalaland economic euphoria. Then he enters when almost nobody suspects a reversal of epic proportions
 
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