Study: breadth suggests that the stock market's bottom is already in

Interesting, but flawed, analysis.

They are comparing $NYAD versus $SPX.
One is a stock market (and includes listings such as interest rate securities, debt securities, preferreds, hybrids etc.) and one is a market-cap-and-free-float-weighted index that spans multiple stock exchanges.

If you compare the S&P 500 index to its actual counterpart - the S&P 500 advance-decline cumulative, you'll also find that the S&P 500 AD hasn't made a new high, so the conclusion is invalid.
 
Really? A bottom is in? So 9 years of straight gains sending stocks up thousands of percent followed by a few weeks of losses and some volatility and the bottom is already in?

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
 
Yea - the NYSE A/D is flawed - although the S&P 500 stocks are showing a new high on % advancing - looks good to me. Not making any predictions - just saying the breadth recently is strong.

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Chart looks like it could also lead to quite a few traps. I see that last peak above the January highs occurred into the March 12th high. That led to a 250 pt pullback in S&P. It's basically made a marginal new high just like it did then.
 
Umm you've got the divergence bit the wrong way around.

When the index makes a new high but the breadth indicator/oscillator/whatever doesn't that's a proper divergence.

You can't draw any conclusion about an index and the breadth doing the same (or not) - other than the index is in a short (or medium) term downtrend. That's just normal Dow theory.
 
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