Mav,
I would be looking at starting a solo shop. I would be the sole IAR at my own RIA that I would establish with one of these RIA atty firms, for up to $10k, and from there obviously it's all about getting AUM. I think there is a 'personalized', 'customized' trend going on across many industries and I think the investment game has yet to see this, but I think there is a niche for it. I think a lot of people don't realize the kind of risk they truly are in with the stock market. I think there is a dearth of talent on the part of advisers not even from just a pure PnL standpoint, but more importantly in this kind of fiduciary role, in awareness of the risks that people have. I feel there is an autopilot nature of 'it's the time in the market that counts' and the standard hedge is bonds/bond funds, and don't understand the prospect of 'black swan' where rates skyrocket and most stocks don't like that, and the dollar weakens as higher rates needed to clear borrowing markets. Again, I understand the difficulty in expressing bearishness in such central bank manipulated markets, but I am at least aware of the dangers and open to how bad things could get. I'm not even a big time equity research kind of guy, as I think there are just inherent limits to that in terms of 'edge', but I obviously know the major metrics and specific issues with whatever company it is. I'm more about major positioning, because while there are defensive sectors, largely the SPX going down a ton isn't going to take prisoners, and sectors are all going to go down a lot. Security selection aside from certain defensive names that are lifetime holds, basically, has its limits,I think one could argue.
I understand the difficulty in not being at least under say an Edward Jones umbrella to have that brand name. But I would be doing sales there, too, and not getting the discretion I would be looking to have, and I would have to totally take commission which is worse than if I were running my own shop. It's a hard process, but I have always had a salesman nature to me, and I talk to people about the market, even people who wouldn't have much a clue about how markets work and have never looked at so much as an SP500 chart, and can relay what is going on in different sectors, and ways to capitalize on things and the danger in just assuming 'I should buy oil because it will inevitably go back up'. The bottom line is I don't doubt my ability to relay to people the kinds of things I'd be looking to implement and what would differentiate me.
I did go to one of the top non-Ivys and I live in a big metro area and while I don't have all these connections, I do have good standing in my area generally, and I wouldn't have a hard time explaining what I did previously and how that will benefit me going forward. I think it's even overlooked how little some advisers know about market structure and comprehending just what is going on with days like Aug 24th crash. Including the arbitrage available, although that wouldn't be much relevant with a wealth mgmt job but realizing certain major ETFs are off from their underlying, that is major opportunity anybody who has the ability to capitalize on should. But the main thing there is understanding of liquidity and we're already seeing that in riskier funds.
This isn't trading. This is an adviser position and my main value add in addition to the usual things one would have to know to pass the exam and get licensed, would be my skill in understanding opportunity in actual asset management and strategies with that, rather than mere SPY/TLT, or what many advisers do now which is outsource portfolio mgmt altogether. And in understanding how dangerous things really are when it seems ok at the present. Right now for instance there is compelling reason, especially if SPX gets below 1700, that we see 800 on SPX before 2500. How many people are really ready for that, and are overlooking what a rally this has been (mostly via the inflationary policies that boosted asset prices)? I get that holding some meaningful allocation to quality stocks at all times is wise, and dividends kept up with defensive companies, but even with tax events on booking profits, selling up here where there is now evidence a major top could be in (not saying sure thing, but for first time in awhile, there is evidence) is wiser than riding it all down only to hope to see these current levels. And if we got here, it would be like Japan and they haven't gotten back to decades ago levels, and it took massive JPY devaluation just to nominally go up to here. I happen to ultimately think stocks WILL be much higher than current levels looking few decades out; it just will not be much 'intrinsic' so much as inflation boosting everything in price. So I think a total cash allocation is riskier than an allocation with equities; I understand that.
Pure logistics-wise, I don't understand why the high #s in terms of AUM are needed? I would never be complacent, but running my own shop, and maybe someday hiring a person or two to help, but to start out, just me, getting say $10 million, I would not be afraid to charge a higher than industry avg rate and I see 6 figures in fees at the very least from all that (not saying getting even that level of AUM is easy; that's my main concern/challenge) and I don't think yearly costs are that much in terms of overhead, even if I ultimately hung a shingle or at least leased an office at cheaper place. I think statistically based things like I'm sure a lot of robo advisors do has major flaws, and they just get hidden when things seem to be going well with stocks at such high levels. There is plenty of turbulence from high yield to commodities to sovereign debt and sovereign wealth funds with less from oil now.
I'm not looking to go big, big. I see a trend to more local, personalized in so many sectors of the economy, and think there is a place for that in investment. I think a lot of people don't realize that if the market is going back to '08 lows, for example, a buy at SPX 1300 is worse than even now, probably, one could argue, because here at least the chances are still decent that another 30% higher is possible in this whole bull rally, whereas if we were at that level, chances are high that it is going all the way down. That gets subjective, but the bottom line is it's integrating wave theory with how when things get too far from the momentous highs, it cleans everybody out to the lows/overshoots/etc. I think I have a lot of savvy about risks of seemingly awesome strategies like high dividend commodity based companies, and how yield pigs usually get crushed. And if one has conviction, maybe selling puts to slowly enter a position is wiser to get involved.
As you pointed out, it's less about all this strategy nuance, and more about raising AUM and not being complacent. I feel to an extent reputation builds more AUM, even if I go awhile with only a few 100k even under mgmt. I understand the risks of being a one man shop and how some people would not like that, but I don't think that is a deal breaker altogether.
So I'll gladly listen to any rebuttals, but also advice on the kinds of advertising needed to get my name out there. I should also point out, I'm in a wealthier suburban area of a major metro, skewed more towards smaller further out suburb, not in some big city, so while obviously not all clients from this area, that is something of an advantage, along with not being in a saturated finance market although there are obviously plenty of competitors and established firms.
Lastly, I want to do as well as possible, but if I felt i could comfortably take home 75k clear and away in income few years in, with upward trajectory, I'd be fine with that. I'm not coming from any big firms or anything, so no non competes or anything like that. It would be hard as heck I understand to raise AUM so organically, but I've got some 'on paper' credentials with the work I have done (trading was at a reputable firm, and I had some success, but the payout structure just too hard with the limited scalability of what I was doing, and just IMO not worth it unless willing to constantly be waiting for big moments and also regulatory concerns on some things).
I ultimately feel like taking the chance and building it from scratch would pay off majorly down the road and get me into a good long term situation and the perks of running my own shop. So any comments addressing the feasibility things I'm specifically talking about would be appreciated.
Thanks