Mav,
I would be looking at starting a solo shop. I would be the sole IAR at my own RIA that I would establish with one of these RIA atty firms, for up to $10k, and from there obviously it's all about getting AUM.
This is what one of my buddies did. He WAS a sole IAR and then got out of that and affiliated himself. MUCH easier.
I think there is a 'personalized', 'customized' trend going on across many industries and I think the investment game has yet to see this, but I think there is a niche for it.
I am NOT seeing this in the advisory business. People who invest with RIA's want two things: safety and someone to talk to when things go bad. Most RIA's are VERY conservative because they don't get paid for performance, they get paid on assets so why take the risk?
I think a lot of people don't realize the kind of risk they truly are in with the stock market.
I disagree here. The whole "risk" thing is way overblown. People should be in a tax deferred index fund and call it a day. I could write a 100 page white paper on why this is absolutely the best strategy for 99% of the public but don't have the time. It's advisors who want to extract fees from clients that scare them on the risk angle. Yeah sure if mom and pop are selling naked puts with leverage then yeah, they are taking a lot of risk. But I think it's immoral to tell everyday run of the mill folks who are simply long an index that they are taking too much risk and you will help them offload that risk for a modest fee. They use to call these people snake oil salesmen for a reason. DON'T be that guy.
I think there is a dearth of talent on the part of advisers not even from just a pure PnL standpoint, but more importantly in this kind of fiduciary role, in awareness of the risks that people have.
Not true anymore. The business is hyper competitive and while the business use to be run by the Jimmy Stewarts of the world, nice guy next door, more often then not, you see advisors with advanced degrees in finance and many of them are actually ex-wall street investment bankers who know "a thing or two" about finance. Please don't play that angle either.
I feel there is an autopilot nature of 'it's the time in the market that counts' and the standard hedge is bonds/bond funds, and don't understand the prospect of 'black swan' where rates skyrocket and most stocks don't like that, and the dollar weakens as higher rates needed to clear borrowing markets.
Dude, you are MASSIVELY overthinking this. Advisors don't put their clients in bonds because there are no kick backs. They do put their clients in annuities which we can discuss later but those are guaranteed fixed returns. Don't play macro fund manager here, your job is to sell, not be George Soros. Different client set.
Again, I understand the difficulty in expressing bearishness in such central bank manipulated markets, but I am at least aware of the dangers and open to how bad things could get.
OK, this is starting to get annoying. Everyone on this website knows this stuff. What did you just read the "The Creature from Jekyll Island"? Yeah so has most of ET. The wheel was discovered a long time ago, don't try to change the tread and say you just discovered it. Most advisors are well aware of the things you are talking about.
I'm not even a big time equity research kind of guy, as I think there are just inherent limits to that in terms of 'edge', but I obviously know the major metrics and specific issues with whatever company it is. I'm more about major positioning, because while there are defensive sectors, largely the SPX going down a ton isn't going to take prisoners, and sectors are all going to go down a lot. Security selection aside from certain defensive names that are lifetime holds, basically, has its limits,I think one could argue.
Again man, you are really over thinking this. Honestly you are trying to be in the wrong business. You have an econ degree right? Just go work for a bank in a private client group. Sally and Bob in springfield don't care your "positioning" theories and quite frankly the won't understand it when you try to explain it to them.
I understand the difficulty in not being at least under say an Edward Jones umbrella to have that brand name. But I would be doing sales there, too, and not getting the discretion I would be looking to have, and I would have to totally take commission which is worse than if I were running my own shop.
I don't think you do understand. LOL. And no, there are no longer commissions at Ed Jones or any shop. It's ALL fees now as in annual fees.
It's a hard process, but I have always had a salesman nature to me, and I talk to people about the market, even people who wouldn't have much a clue about how markets work and have never looked at so much as an SP500 chart, and can relay what is going on in different sectors, and ways to capitalize on things and the danger in just assuming 'I should buy oil because it will inevitably go back up'. The bottom line is I don't doubt my ability to relay to people the kinds of things I'd be looking to implement and what would differentiate me.
Peg and Al are not going to have a clue what you are talking about. Move to NY, go into banking man. You need to be around people that understand the words coming out of your mouth. Again, I know I'm coming across as a dick here but I will give you people to talk to. You just sound like a lost dog right now and really have not done your research and by research I mean talk to people who are actually DOING this right now instead of criticizing what you THINK they are doing.
I did go to one of the top non-Ivys and I live in a big metro area and while I don't have all these connections, I do have good standing in my area generally, and I wouldn't have a hard time explaining what I did previously and how that will benefit me going forward. I think it's even overlooked how little some advisers know about market structure and comprehending just what is going on with days like Aug 24th crash. Including the arbitrage available, although that wouldn't be much relevant with a wealth mgmt job but realizing certain major ETFs are off from their underlying, that is major opportunity anybody who has the ability to capitalize on should. But the main thing there is understanding of liquidity and we're already seeing that in riskier funds.
Man, you would be surprised at the background of the avg advisor today.
This isn't trading. This is an adviser position and my main value add in addition to the usual things one would have to know to pass the exam and get licensed, would be my skill in understanding opportunity in actual asset management and strategies with that, rather than mere SPY/TLT, or what many advisers do now which is outsource portfolio mgmt altogether. And in understanding how dangerous things really are when it seems ok at the present. Right now for instance there is compelling reason, especially if SPX gets below 1700, that we see 800 on SPX before 2500. How many people are really ready for that, and are overlooking what a rally this has been (mostly via the inflationary policies that boosted asset prices)? I get that holding some meaningful allocation to quality stocks at all times is wise, and dividends kept up with defensive companies, but even with tax events on booking profits, selling up here where there is now evidence a major top could be in (not saying sure thing, but for first time in awhile, there is evidence) is wiser than riding it all down only to hope to see these current levels. And if we got here, it would be like Japan and they haven't gotten back to decades ago levels, and it took massive JPY devaluation just to nominally go up to here. I happen to ultimately think stocks WILL be much higher than current levels looking few decades out; it just will not be much 'intrinsic' so much as inflation boosting everything in price. So I think a total cash allocation is riskier than an allocation with equities; I understand that.
Listen to me OK. I'm also an Econ grad. Your knowledge is not special and quite frankly you are pitching this stuff to the wrong crowd. Do you even read this message boad? Take some time off today and read random threads. This whole place thinks the market is going to crash. Your insights are not new.
Pure logistics-wise, I don't understand why the high #s in terms of AUM are needed? I would never be complacent, but running my own shop, and maybe someday hiring a person or two to help, but to start out, just me, getting say $10 million, I would not be afraid to charge a higher than industry avg rate and I see 6 figures in fees at the very least from all that (not saying getting even that level of AUM is easy; that's my main concern/challenge) and I don't think yearly costs are that much in terms of overhead, even if I ultimately hung a shingle or at least leased an office at cheaper place. I think statistically based things like I'm sure a lot of robo advisors do has major flaws, and they just get hidden when things seem to be going well with stocks at such high levels. There is plenty of turbulence from high yield to commodities to sovereign debt and sovereign wealth funds with less from oil now.
Then you are lacking an understanding of basic math.
I'm not looking to go big, big. I see a trend to more local, personalized in so many sectors of the economy, and think there is a place for that in investment. I think a lot of people don't realize that if the market is going back to '08 lows, for example, a buy at SPX 1300 is worse than even now, probably, one could argue, because here at least the chances are still decent that another 30% higher is possible in this whole bull rally, whereas if we were at that level, chances are high that it is going all the way down. That gets subjective, but the bottom line is it's integrating wave theory with how when things get too far from the momentous highs, it cleans everybody out to the lows/overshoots/etc. I think I have a lot of savvy about risks of seemingly awesome strategies like high dividend commodity based companies, and how yield pigs usually get crushed. And if one has conviction, maybe selling puts to slowly enter a position is wiser to get involved.
I'm going to stop responding to this stuff.
As you pointed out, it's less about all this strategy nuance, and more about raising AUM and not being complacent. I feel to an extent reputation builds more AUM, even if I go awhile with only a few 100k even under mgmt. I understand the risks of being a one man shop and how some people would not like that, but I don't think that is a deal breaker altogether.
It's about sales not reputation.
So I'll gladly listen to any rebuttals, but also advice on the kinds of advertising needed to get my name out there.
Money, lots of money. See my comments about overhead.
I should also point out, I'm in a wealthier suburban area of a major metro, skewed more towards smaller further out suburb, not in some big city, so while obviously not all clients from this area, that is something of an advantage, along with not being in a saturated finance market although there are obviously plenty of competitors and established firms.
Competition is EVERYWHERE. Downtown Omaha has like 5000 advisors.
Lastly, I want to do as well as possible, but if I felt i could comfortably take home 75k clear and away in income few years in, with upward trajectory, I'd be fine with that. I'm not coming from any big firms or anything, so no non competes or anything like that. It would be hard as heck I understand to raise AUM so organically, but I've got some 'on paper' credentials with the work I have done (trading was at a reputable firm, and I had some success, but the payout structure just too hard with the limited scalability of what I was doing, and just IMO not worth it unless willing to constantly be waiting for big moments and also regulatory concerns on some things).
Last time I'm going to say this, credentials will not raise you more then $25 from your aunt. It's all about sales.
I ultimately feel like taking the chance and building it from scratch would pay off majorly down the road and get me into a good long term situation and the perks of running my own shop. So any comments addressing the feasibility things I'm specifically talking about would be appreciated.
I know I was harsh here but I will give you names if you want. I personally think you are in the wrong business but that is just my opinion.
Thanks