Strongest trending markets?

acrary, a few Qs:

1) Do you mind telling me where you got these trendiness lists?

2) How exactly was trendiness defined?

Thanks,
vol
 
Quote from acrary:

Here's the ranking for the last 10 years. If a future has been trading for less than 10 years, the rank is based on the trendiness since it began trading.

Trendiness Report starting Jan. 1996 ending Dec. 2005
at least 10 days in the trend

1. Mini Value Line
2. Nikkei Index
3. 90 Day T-Bill
4. Short Sterling
5. Japanese Yen
6. Palladium
7. Fed Funds
8. Australian Dollar
9. Goldman Sachs C.I.
10. Soybean Meal
11. British Pound
More...

acrary:

Can you possibly explain what "Short Sterling" (#4) is, given that British Pound is at #11?

Thanks!
 
Quote from risktaker:

Not all, but the majority of trending markets/indexes are just off limits to small speculators. Usually, (again not all) many of these indicies require $100,000-$1mil to participate due to the size of the index and the fact that futures are not available on these indexes. The indexes where futures ARE available to the small types, well those indexes just turn to crap due to all of the manipulation going on to screw the schmucks out of their dough.
But since the majority of these small speculators never last long enough to figure out the futures game is just rigged against them, the latest crop of wannabe's refuses to believe until their account balances reach zero and then they just go back to their 9-5 job.

Any time the "big boys" decide to make some index available to the public, it's usually time to move on. It means it's manipulated from then on. Happened to the value line years ago, to the e-mini, in the russell and midcaps and they keep introducing more stuff to turn into garbage.

So, yeah damn good indexes are out there, just not in some public forum or half-crooked exchange.

What's more, the dumb public is taught to believe that they need to come up with special ways to trade the dead markets at these manipulating exchanges it's completely the other way around. In *trending* markets just about ANY technique works because these markets reflect TRUE buying/selling without all the thieves playing games to take your money.
More...


???
 
Quote from AshanD:

This is a pretty broad question but I don't know how else to ask it. Lets say you pull up a 100 day chart for various instruments in the stock, futures, and forex markets. Short term volatility aside, which markets will show the strongest trends in long term price action?

Thanks
More...

those based on known fundamentals where the news ahead is a known likely event.

interest rates, stocks, global demand for commodities, futures spreads.

the last one is the easiest and offers the best roi of ANY othe market period.

i have spoken.
 
Quote from AshanD:
This is a pretty broad question but I don't know how else to ask it. Lets say you pull up a 100 day chart for various instruments in the stock, futures, and forex markets. Short term volatility aside, which markets will show the strongest trends in long term price action?

Thanks
More...
The sum of the gyrations in price cannot be less than the difference between any 2 points A and B in trend or alleged trend. If an alleged trend goes beyond one day (eg YM) the sum of the gyrations will be of the order of trend multiply by 2, 3 or more.

Gyrations? That is upmoves and downmoves.

Short answer: the money is in the gyrations.
:)
 
Quote from acrary:

Here's the ranking for the last 10 years. If a future has been trading for less than 10 years, the rank is based on the trendiness since it began trading.

Trendiness Report starting Jan. 1996 ending Dec. 2005
at least 10 days in the trend


18. Corn
19. Lumber

25. Soybeans

36. S&P 400 Midcap

38. Rough Rice

40. Unleaded Gas

43. Live Cattle


48. Wheat

50. Emini Nasdaq

55. Nasdaq 100


58. FTSE 100 Index
59. Dow Jones Index

61. Emini S&P 500
More...

=============
Thanks for list.

AshanD;
Like to study trends,hunt gamebirds around feedgrains live cattle ;
only have traded them at the feed store[cash for bushel bag,feed:) ]Never traded cattle or feed grains thru Chicago or any commercial exchange

Lumber is real big in our south east area, its mainly a local county trade , cash market only ,not exchange much

Dividend NYSE stocks like XOM trend very well, check out 10 year chart.

Even #61-ES can trend very well intraday;
not saying you should cherry pick ES trends , prefer red/green apples homegrown myself:cool:

ES could be higher on list if intraday was main measure.

Some apples trees take 10 years to ''bear fruit''
 
Quote from Cheese:
Gyrations? That is upmoves and downmoves.

Short answer: the money is in the gyrations.
More...
Robert Pardo's book includes a measure-of-system-goodness that he calls "Percent of Perfect Profit." First you calculate the equity curve that would result if you bought the low of the bar and sold the high of the bar, on every bar. That is the "Perfect Profit" equity curve. Then you compare your actual equity curve against the Perfect Profit equity curve and see what fraction of the theoretically available profits, you actually captured.

Since it's a percentage, it's easy to compare between different tradeables, even tradeables that are denominated in different currencies.
 
Quote from horribilicus:

Robert Pardo's book includes a measure-of-system-goodness that he calls "Percent of Perfect Profit." First you calculate the equity curve that would result if you bought the low of the bar and sold the high of the bar, on every bar. That is the "Perfect Profit" equity curve. Then you compare your actual equity curve against the Perfect Profit equity curve and see what fraction of the theoretically available profits, you actually captured.

Since it's a percentage, it's easy to compare between different tradeables, even tradeables that are denominated in different currencies.
More...

Pardo definitely undershot the target....LOL

With respect to ES and an EOD bar, the target is not a % between 100 (Perfect Profit) and breakeven (0%).

Any ES intraday trader can look at an intraday chart. He can print it. He can, in hindsight draw some lines on it.

What is the average value in Perfect Profit of the difference values of the MLR line for the day?

It may be possible for those who follow reversion to the mean to see that price crosses the MLR line a few times.

You could draw horizontal lines on the chart and note how many times the price went through each line. Some get high scores and those nearer S and R get lower scores (number of crossings or touches).

How long must a person diddle with lines (even the intraday trendlines and channels lines) to get the idea that if you are positioned for each move and take profits from the beginning to the end of each move that you come up with a number several times the Perfect Profit?

Try starting with and EOD bar and expanding it fractal by fractal so you can see what the bar is composed of.

So you think he is saying use your 30 second bars and do the calculation for each of the 30 second bars during RMH. LOL.

A good intraday trading day is a mellow combo of about 20 to 40 actions. A profit taking on 5 min chart of every 4 to 2 bars. A profit taking of every 20 to 10 minutes.

Add up the profits every 20 minute or every 10 minutes and see if you come up with an answer that is greater than the ET long term daily average of 1 point on the ES.

Draw lines 1 point apart throughout the range of the day and connect profit taking lines from one extreme to another every 10 minutes and repeat for 20 minutes. Get in mental shape to understand how the market works.

How long during any day does it take to make one point? LOL....

Perfect Profits....Poof....
 
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