Strong up-tick close on the ETH, on a Friday...

[Overnight]

...Fed this week and then CPI. Lots of talk of a pivot so this may be the last 50beeps hike in the cycle. 12K+ NDX post-CPI is likely.

Aww man, that's all we get? 12K+ on the NDX post next CPI print? K, what do your models say if on same day of that CPI, we get the news that Putin is found dead on his toilet and the Ukraine war is over?

 

[Concinnity]

I've tried most types of investing/trading except futures and by far the best risk/reward for me has been swing trading based on fundamentals and long term technicals. I added a layer of shorter term trading since fall 2020 which can be holds from less then an hour to a few days. Depends on my schedule and if market/sector direction is really clear. I'm not in it for an income and lifestyle wise I don't want to be regularly day trading.

I am not being a smart ass, but I know thats exactly what I said. You’re basically using time and account size as your biggest edge because that is the most common edge people use. That’s why it’s frustrating to hear other traders who make money via those edges try to tell traders who actually actively day trade they should be focusing primarily on using fundamentals and time as well. When it’s almost two different things. They see a profitable trader and take their word on it. When sometimes the person telling them this doesn’t even understand where their edge is coming from.

It’s exponentially more difficult to day trade because generally you need an actual edge, other than just time and account size. But it’s much more difficult to try and use time as an edge in active day trading it can actually just as much work against you. Same with fundamentals and news trying to short or go long on just fundamentals or news is irrelevant sometimes. Makes more retail chase a trade which gets them trapped, that’s actually why a lot people move to longer time frames. imagine trying to build long term consistency day trading with news and fundamentals as your primary focus. It’s generally the much more difficult path for most people(again if they are actively day trading for the lions share of their income).

edit: that makes sense regarding futures, I am speaking of futures mainly, but what I said is still valid for other active day trading. It makes sense you don’t do futures because the larger your position size relative to your account the less time can be used as an edge and futures are highly leveraged.