String of losses

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stockpredictor said:
A system that recognizes where it works and in what conditions, can be used in conjunction with correlation-divergence systems, but not in and of itself. That is, if a counter-trend system to short an uptrend works, if may fail when there is a true downtrend. However, there are stocks that go up at those times, akin to an ecosystem; a low on X creates a high on Y at the same time, or within the same timeframe. The subtle shift is a signal of the changing tide. Dow Theory attempts to take advantage of this, although it is a crude method because it does not take enough information into account.

Testing to certainty seems unreasonable as far as shorter horizons go. If long term, inflation eventually makes the bull market go up, as it has been, even after Japan's crash to new highs. Capital can be raised if certainty is reached- but has it? That is, what is the certainty of certainty?
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Im repeat myself at this point but here goes.
5000+ Samples=Certainty

Example: There are about 5000 forex market hours in a year. So if you test or trade a year's worth of an hourly trend system, that is certainty. Refer to my post outlining how to get to certainty on each timeframe.

I know its difficult to combat the idyllic mindset, its so easy to chalk things up as unreasonable or impossible. Its just so enticing isn't it, to do nothing in the face of tedious work and convince yourself that its unrealistic. Companies on the cutting edge don't think this way. Its your choice to be an audience member, watching the world be built around you. Its an indication of an apathetic state, minus the a.

Emotion fuels accuracy.
 
What makes you think you have what it takes to become a trader? You have to be pretty convinced of your own aptitude to think you can compete in the most lucrative game. Analyze yourself, is there evidence of exceptional ability?

Top traders don't even discuss whether or not something is worth testing, they test it all. They think like the engineers at Audi and Tesla. This is not a puzzle or a hobby to them. You must be convinced that without this, you will forever remain a slave. For some it is already too late. I know exactly where I stand and no one can stop me. My resolve cannot be tested. If you're apathetic towards life, step aside and let us handle this. Don't half quit, do us all a favor and give up entirely.

If you don't have the right attitude, you are likely not going to put in whats required to reach the top of the resource chain.

Emotion, Certainty, Capital
 
stockpredictor said:
True.

Higher capital has upsides and downsides. But if we are talking about consistency, the obvious answer would be that it allows one to hold for an eventual win/breakeven at the cost of potentially greater drawdowns.
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Holding has another cost which is not immediately obvious.
It is the opportunity cost.
Imagine what we could do if we released that capital and made it work harder.
 
AttoCEL said:
Never hold
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LOL I hear you loud and clear :)
It crossed my mind many times and in 3 strategies it is handled in 2 ways
1. We reduced trade size so the holding lot sizes are small (we compensate for the reduced profits by trading more instruments)
2. We have systems in place which expedite trade recovery
 
AttoCEL said:
Never hold
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Others be like....
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themickey said:
Others be like....
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LOL there are strategies and then there are other strategies.
The NOT AGAIN strategies are generally safer because they limit the risk to a single trade.
The HOLDING strategies need to be carefully refined so that the holding positions don't become a liability and this is an area of weakness which (if it isn't addressed) makes most of them fail.
 
Certainty in daytrading is possible. You have to be willing to do the tedious math. Unwillingness makes people convince themselves that its impossible. It is not, you are just lazy. Every person that didn't qualify for my firm was battling with this. If you think this way, that its impossible to be mathematically certain of a day trading system, you are just not cut out for this. Become a stock broker, a salesagent with a buy only operation. When the market crashes, change the name of your stock brokerage, and scam people all over again, until your luck runs out.

There are many ways to make a career in this game, we each have our own moral compass and principles. My firm is mastering the craft all along the way. If you cannot relate with the theme of this thread, the passion, then do something else. You will get eaten alive or become something you're not too proud of.
 
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